True Potential Morning Markets

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at President Trump’s first day of office and the stock market reaction to comments and executive orders. Announcements on a large joint venture from OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle boosted markets and Netflix posted corporate earnings showing increases to subscribers and revenue.

George Bell, Portfolio manager, covers President Trump’s inauguration speech and what can be expected of US economic policy, both foreign and domestic. George also gives an update on the health of the UK jobs market and the challenges that poses for the Bank of England on inflation

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks to the imminent inauguration of President Trump. With key policies on tariffs and deregulation, the critical question from markets is whether his business friendly policy will be enough to counteract fiscal spending in a resilient US economy.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director and Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, look at recent moves in global bond markets and why they are a compelling opportunity looking forward. Furthermore, they look at the better than expected inflation data from the UK and the US which has seen a strong rebound in global equities.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks at the recent inflation figures coming out of the US and UK and the impact it has had on equity and bond markets. Are both respective economies out of the woods regarding the upside risk to inflation?

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, gives insight into the UK economy after the surprise fall in inflation which has came in at 2.5%. Kevin also looks at the convergence in bond market behaviour between the UK and US while highlighting that the UK lacks the economic growth of America.

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at the link between fixed income and currency markets and how the weakness in pound sterling will create further inflationary pressures in the UK.

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at the recent moves in bond markets and what has been driving US government bond yields higher. George also looks at how this correlates with UK Gilts as well as a look a look ahead to upcoming data from the UK, US and China.

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy and George Bell, Portfolio Manager, look at equity markets movements, the recent US data prints, as well as reflect on statements from the Federal Reserve on interest rate trajectories.   

Today, Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, looks at the interest rate projections from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the potential for more volatile US inflation. Chris looks at comments from Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, who believes they must proceed with caution with Trump’s inflationary policy on the horizon.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at how the ongoing strength of the US economy and the acceleration of business activity has caused further weakness in US government bonds. The moves suggest that the Federal Reserve may have to press pause on lowering interest rates.

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at the global market reaction to further developments on Trump's tariff policies and what it could mean for US technology companies. George also covers further economic data points for the US on manufacturing as well as a look ahead to the Federal Reserve speeches and what to expect.

As we move into 2025, Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, reviews 2024 asset markets with a look at equities and fixed income as well as a look ahead to interest rate cut expectations for major central banks.

In our final video of the year, Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments and Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, reflect on the last twelve months in markets. They also discuss what the upcoming year may bring with  President Elect Donald Trump and how US policy could shape global markets.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, looks at the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% and the impact that this and the 2025 policy revisions have had on bond and equity markets.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks at rising government debt and the implications both in the US and UK given the economic climate of each country. The counterpart to this a fall in private sector debt and how that interplays with government debt laid out through a case study from the US in the the mid 1990’s.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at the latest UK wage growth data which despite a lagging economy, surprised analysts by exceeding expectations. While wage growth is supportive for greater consumption, it is inflationary and if UK inflation figures come in stronger than the expected 2.6%, the market may challenge Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on the current 1% interest rate cut p...

This week, Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at the last major week in financial markets before the end of the year which provides insight on Europe and Japan’s PMI data, US inflation and UK employment. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England also have meetings this week with market expectations favouring a 0.25% for the US and for the UK to hold.

This week, Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy and George Bell, Portfolio Manager, cover the European Cenral Bank’s interest rate decision as well as an update on US inflation figures. Staying with America, the team recap the recent NFIB Small business Survey which paints an optimistic picture for US business growth and finish with updates from China on monetary policy.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks back to the start of 2024, the interest rate trajectory of the UK and how that compares to now. Sebastian also puts this into a more global context, examining how European and US central banks have navigated inflation.

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, looks at the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which came in at its highest reading since June 2021. The election signalled a major shift in economic policy with hopes for favourable tax and regulation policies which could benefit a broad scope of US business, will this surge of optimism from small business continue? 

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, focuses on China’s economic trajectory after President Xi Jinping promised further measures to reinject life and market optimism into the economy. Since September after an initial round of stimulus measures, investor confidence has faded. China continues to be challenged by both domestic and international issues. Time will tell if the additional measures will be...

This week, Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at a week which sees global equity returns broadening and imminent decisions on interest rates from several major central banks.

This week Paul Durrans, Investment Director and Joe Forward, Investment Analyst, look at key areas that financial markets focused on this week. First the collapse of the French government with the vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Secondly, a look at the raft of economic data coming out of the US which gives insight into America’s economic strength. Lastly, a look ahead to th...

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, takes a look at the removal of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, the motivations behind the no confidence vote and whether it has had a wider impact on Eurozone markets. In the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that market expectations are aligned with his own on future interest rate cuts in 2025.