Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast

After another crazy year in the economy and markets, will there ever be a return to some sense of normalcy? Join John Norris, Sam Clement and David McGrath from our investment committee in this recorded webinar panel discussion on this topic and more: - How will the Fed rate cuts impact the economy? - Why the disconnect between the economic data & public perception? - What can the stock market do...

To the outsider, American consumers must be a weird bunch. They will bemoan the cost of something insignificant, like a carton of eggs, while spending obscene amounts of money on concert tickets, sporting events and other types of activities. Undoubtedly, this change in consumer behavior will impact the economy moving forward. However, are the government agencies accurately capturing its impact us...

Last week, The People's Bank of China threw an unprecedented amount of stimuli on the Chinese banking system in order to spur the sluggish economy. The Chinese stock markets have soared in response. However, will it be enough? The Chinese economy and banking system are facing severe structural challenges which could take decades to repair. From declining demographics to the collapse in the residen...

In the United States, millions of people use some form of social media every second of every day. For many, it is their primary source of information. If so, just how accurate is it? Further, are they getting news from a number of different sources and voices? Or is it the same people saying the same thing over and over again? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discus...

After months of speculating when the Fed would cut the overnight rate, it finally did so this past Wednesday by 50 basis points. Further, Fed Chairman Jay Powell essentially said this was the first cut of potentially many, while reiterating the economy was still strong. So, what does this mean for the U.S. economy? What does it mean for the real estate sector? What does it mean for the American co...

The Census Bureau recently reported the official Poverty Rate fell to 11.1% in 2023. Historically, this is a very low number. Further, median household income rose to an all-time high last year, and the current unemployment rate is a miserly 4.2%. Washington tells us the Consumer Price Index is a very manageable 2.5%, and real wages are going up. This is all very positive news, but why do so many...

The quickest way to grow an economy is to unfetter it. However, the Federal government has enacted over 200,000 pages of regulations in the Code of Federal Regulations. It also routinely investigates naturally occurring monopolies, usually in the tech sector, which is both time consuming and costly. Since regulations present a cost to doing business, and, therefore, slowing economic activity, why...

Baseball card collectors should beware. The same could be said of folks who have stamp and coin collections. China table settings? Antique furniture? Silver serving trays and tea sets? Any so-called collectors' item you can buy off the television? Most of these things don't have the true market value many think they do. That is to say, what people are actually willing to pay for an item, and not w...

Sometimes the official economic data doesn't tell the whole story. So, when the data is in doubt, you have to go to corporate earnings releases to find the truth. Last quarter, it seems the truth was lower income households are feeling the pinch, and upper income earners are becoming more cost conscious. At least on somewhat generic goods and services. This makes perfect sense, as tickets for Tayl...

Recently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been reporting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues to increase at a decreasing rate. That is ordinarily a good thing for US consumers. However, don't tell that to potential first-time homebuyers who still can't find a decent house at a monthly payment which makes sense. This keeps them renting instead of owner, which makes sense in the short-term b...

After an incredibly easy go of it for the first seven months of 2024, the start of August was a rude awakening to U.S. stock investors. The market can and will go down, and no one is happy about it when it does. However, what was the real cause of this recent sell-off? Was it really a weak jobs report? Japanese monetary policy? Impending economic doom? Or was it a relatively normal reaction an unu...

This week, Israel assassinated high ranking officials in both Hamas and Hezbollah. The world currently awaits Iran's reaction and response to the killing of its allies. Will it lead to a greater escalation of hostilities in the Middle East? If so, just how involved with the United States get? With all of the anti-Israel protests happening in this country, will young Americans be willing to fight a...

The 2024 Presidential campaign has been nothing if not exciting. From the disastrous first debate to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump to President Biden dropping out of the race, things couldn't get more weird. Or could they? Kamala Harris will assuredly leave the Democratic Convention in Chicago as the party's official nominee. However, who will be the Vice President on her ticket? Just...

The collapse in the real estate market in China, and subsequent banking crisis, haven't attracted much media attention in the United States. However, it is a very real story to the average Chinese citizen and that country's prospects for economic growth moving forward. Simply put, the incredible erosion of wealth due to falling housing prices will constrain consumer spending and investment for the...

What if NATO held a conference in Washington and nobody paid any attention? As far as most Americans are concerned, that is exactly what happened this past week. Regardless of the general public's disinterest, NATO remains the United States' primarily military alliance and commitment. Further, NATO obligates the U.S. to potentially fight and die for countries many Americans couldn't find on a map....

The recent U.S. Presidential debate has been a topic of discussion since one minute after it began. Is the current President capable of serving out another term? Is the former President capable of keeping his ego in check to run the country without malice? What does this do for the election? What does this mean for the perception of American power around the world? Will widespread concern about Jo...

With China as the most notable exception, the world's richest countries 25 years ago are still largely the richest. Similarly, the world's poorest countries at the start of the century are still at the bottom of the list. The same could be said for U.S. states. Why is this? Why do some countries and economies continue to thrive and others languish? Why do some have spurts of growth before petering...

Recently, the G7 held its annual meeting in Italy. In the past, this gathering got a lot of media attention. Recently, it hasn't, and this year was no exception. After all, the only leader of the group who is certain to be at next year's event is Italy's Giorgia Meloni. As a result, some have called the meeting "Meloni & the 6 Lame Ducks." This relative weakness from the developed, western world's...

With the news surrounding Elon Musk's potential $50+ billion pay package from Tesla, people are again focusing on CEO pay in general. Should these people be making THAT much money? While the headline numbers are truly mindboggling, is there more to it than meets the eye? Is there a difference between income and wealth creation when analyzing an executive's true value to a company? Further, do shar...

South Africa, Mexico, the United Kingdom and the European Parliament are all having elections over the next 6 weeks. Individually, each of them has consequences for the United States and their own regions. Combined, they could very easily have a massive global impact. Will the South Africans continue their drift into the Chinese and Russian orbits? Will Mexico continue to move further away from th...

The world's population is growing. Most of these people will be in third-world countries. They will aspire to have creature comforts Americans take for granted. Things like appliances and central air. In the United States, accelerated computing (AI), cloud and blockchain technologies and electric vehicles consume a lot of energy off the already stretched grid. In short, the demand for electricity,...

The U.S. stock market has been surprisingly strong thus far in 2024. This, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve hasn't cut the overnight rate, and doesn't appear poised to do so anytime soon. So, what is driving the current optimism? How much higher can stock prices climb? What will it take for U.S. investors to finally sell their positions? Should we reimagine the traditional methods of valu...

Washington continues to report rosy economic data, and the general public continues to not believe it. Why is the average American so down on the economy when the official data suggests they should be happy? Is it inflation? Is it societal divisiveness? What is the real story?     In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the disconnect between the public's perception of the econom...

The recent turmoil, protests and an apparent lack of accountability at many prestigious American institutions of higher learning have begged a question: is an Ivy League education still worth the cost? Does the rarefied air of these schools for the elite still impress the American public the way it once did, not so long ago? If not, why and when did it happen? What's more, will it ever again.   In...

With all the turmoil around the world, and the subsequent drawdown on US stockpiles, just how prepared would the US be if the planet erupted in a hot war? Would the United States have enough ammunition, missiles, ships and planes to fight several different types of wars on several different continents? What's more, is the American public ready for such a thing?   In this week's Trading Perspective...