Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast

We have all heard the worst-case scenarios, and everyone is hoping for the best-case ones. However, what is the probable case scenario?  Oakworth Capital's Investment Committee discusses the recent market volatility and likely outcomes.

Yesterday, the Administration announced widespread tariffs on the remainder of the world. It hit some countries harder than others, with rates which will certainly curtail trade between our country and theirs. Is this really good for overall economic activity? Given the stock markets' extremely negative reactions, it would seem like it isn't. So, why did we do it? In this week's Trading Perspectiv...

If the headlines have seemed somewhat repetitive recently, it is because they have been. Another day, another DOGE headline and another barb traded. The markets continue to be choppy and gold continues to rally. Foreign leaders have to be tired of bristling against comments from Washington. While arguably exciting at first, the news has become boring and predictable in its unpredictably. It has al...

  The policy making committee of the Federal Reserve met this week and didn't cut interest rates. That was as expected. But if it was so widely expected, why did anyone care? Does the Fed have access to information the rest of us don't? Does it have crystal balls which actually work? Are the voting members on the committee that much smarter? Or have we given the Fed magical powers it doesn't reall...

It had all been going so nicely, had it not? The markets and the economy were better than the experts expected in 2024. Business owner and consumer confidence spiked after the November elections, and the world has been in a flurry of activity since. Unfortunately, people don't seem to be having as much fun as they were. The markets have been bleeding red ink, and the headlines have been talking ab...

Investors have been very skittish for the last couple of weeks. The potential for trade wars with the Canadians and Mexicans have people on edge, and for good reason. The economy was slowing enough on its own already. However, are tariffs really the economic death knells people think they are? Will they really cause U.S. consumer prices to go through the roof? Why do this and why do it now? In thi...

Recent economic reports and corporate earnings releases suggest the vaunted U.S. consumer might be running out of steam. The official savings rate has plummeted. Consumer confidence gauges are down. Loan delinquencies are up. Mid-tier restaurant closings are becoming commonplace. So, how much longer can the ultra-wealthy continue to spend at its current level to mask these problems? Will a pullbac...

Over the last 12 months, gold has been one of the best performing asset classes, but why? It is a shiny metal, which doesn't pay a dividend or interest and doesn't generate any profits. So, why are investors flocking to it? Further, how much longer will gold, and other precious metals, be, well, golden? The answer might just be basic economics.  In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and...

This week, there were some positive signs the warring parties in Gaza and Ukraine might be willing to sit at the negotiating table to end the recent hostilities. However, given the historical differences between the groups, what is the real likelihood of a lasting peace? Or will whatever happens end up being a short-term bandage for an otherwise longstanding wound? Can the Trump administration rea...

After two consecutive years of surprising economic growth and stock market returns, what can 2025 do for an encore? However, there are some serious questions. Just how strong is the labor market? Will inflation subside enough to give American consumers a break on the necessities? Will all of this debt ultimately cause the economy to crash? Will the new Trump Administration really be able to pull o...

This week, a Chinese company named DeepSeek shocked the markets by claiming it had made huge advancements in Artificial Intelligence at a fraction of the cost and effort of the big tech giants in the United States. Is it too good to be true? Further, what would it mean for the average worker if the AI industry were able to expand even more rapidly than currently imagined? Will there be any jobs le...

The first week of Donald Trump's second term in office was a whirlwind of activity. What surprised some people was he did a lot of what he said he was going to do, even some of the head-scratching stuff. However, how much was political posturing and how much was actually trying to govern more effectively? Did any of the executive orders make economic or societal sense? How much more can we expect...

The recent wildfires in Los Angeles have been horrific to witness and even more so to live through. But could they have been avoided? If not avoided, could an effective governmental response mitigated the damage to the error? Was it climate change or government inefficiency which exacerbated an already bad situation? Are there any generational differences of opinion? In this week's Trading Perspec...

The current transition of power from the Biden Administration to Trump Part 2 has been one for the books. The current president has been issuing pardons and making executive orders like has not been seen in recent memory. For his part, the new president has been acting like he is already in office and appears willing to alienate a good chunk of the world in the process. Are these good things? Are...

As we start 2025, a lot of people want to know what the upcoming year holds for them, the economy and the investment markets. So, what does the crystal ball hold in store for the upcoming year? Will stocks continue to climb? Will the economy continue to add jobs? Will the Republicans be able to govern effectively? There are a lot of questions and even more opinions, but what is the truth?   In thi...

  After another strong, if confusing, year in 2024, what can the US economy and financial markets do for an encore? What does the crystal ball hold in store for the upcoming year? Will stocks continue to climb? Will the economy continue to add jobs? Will the Republicans be able to govern effectively? There are a lot of questions and even more opinions. In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clem...

This year has been another wild one in the markets, economy, society and geopolitics. But what have we learned? What was most surprising about events throughout the rest of the world? What changes happened in our domestic society, for good or bad? How strong is the U.S. economy, really? Does anyone tell the truth anymore? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the...

Over the weekend, Syrian rebels overthrew the Assad dynasty, which had ruled the country for 5 decades. On Monday, the US stock market shrugged, and meaningful news coverage of the event was hard to find. Do American investors simply not care about the rest of the world? After all, there seem to be a lot of global problems and US stocks are at an all-time high. Further, what is it about the Middle...

The global wholesale diamond market has essentially collapsed over the last several years. Publicaly traded jewelry companies have been struggling with softer revenue and earnings. With the exception of perhaps ultra-high end brands, the demand for fine jewelry has essentially stalled. Is this due to the consumer being strapped for cash? Or have consumer preferences changed? After all, the demand...

Last week, Target Corporation announced disappointing sales growth for its 3 rd Quarter of 2024. This was just another hint at a broader U.S. consumer slowdown or cooling. While spending forecasts aren't dire, how much fuel does the average American household have in the tank to propel the upcoming holiday shopping season? Will it be merry and bright for retailers? Or will Santa be leaving coal in...

Though November 20 th , Bitcoin has more than doubled in value since the start of 2024. Since the end of 2022, it has more than quintupled. But why? Even the most passionate crypto investors have a difficult time explaining exactly what Bitcoin is in terms the average person can understand. It doesn't pay dividends or interest. It doesn't generate revenue or profits. You can't hold it. Heck, you c...

Now that the U.S. elections are finally over, investors are looking at their portfolios and wondering if the United States is still worth the risk. Will it still be able to generate attractive rates of growth? Are its institutions still relatively stable? Is its currency still sound? Will the Republicans spoil a good thing? On this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss h...

The U.S. stock market took off like a rocket the day after the election. Why did it rally as strongly as it did? Was it policy? Something to do with Trump himself? Relief the painful campaign process was finally over? Or could it be the next 2-4 years looks a little less cloudy than it did on Monday? After all, investors have already had 4 years of a Trump presidency. Or could it be some sort of c...

Leading up to election, social media has been inundated with posts about minimum and living wages. However, what are they exactly? Do they actually work? Whom do they benefit and whom do they hurt, if anybody? Or, are they mostly political props candidate use to curry favor with voters? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the minimum wage and the concept of a l...

In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss trends in the restaurant industry and the likely causes for many of the recent closures. John also gives a huge shout-out to Current Charcoal Grill here in Birmingham.