Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast

Last week, the minimum wage for fast food workers in California went to $20. This will become the de facto minimum wage for unskilled labor across the state. While it might seem like a win for workers, what will be the likely end result? After all, someone will have to absorb this mandated cost increase, and it isn't just going to be employers. Don't tell anyone in Sacramento that, though. In this...

Last week, a wayward container ship struck the Key Bridge causing it to collapse. This effectively closed the Port of Baltimore until the powers that be can clear the wreckage from the shipping channel. Will these delay derail the US economy? Will it cause supply chain issues up and down the East Coast? Will we have to wait months for our cars, our coal and our sugar? In this week's Trading Perspe...

The recent turmoil in Haiti begs the question just what is the United States' role in that fractured country? However, what should our role be in the Democratic Republic of Congo? Somalia? Myanmar? Gaza? Ukraine? The jungles of Colombia? Central America? And any other place which is suffering with internal strife, famine, civil war and worse, if that is possible? Should Washington spend taxpayer m...

This week the Administration restated tailpipe emission standards which will effectively end the American auto industry as we currently know it. The goal is simple: to have more Americans drive more electric vehicles in order to drive down harmful carbon emissions. However, as the old saying goes, for every action there is a reaction. Did the Administration really think through all of the probable...

Everywhere you look, it seems people are doing better than you are. They drive nicer cars. Eat better food. Wear nicer clothes. Have cooler friends. Take fancier trips. You name it. However, the chances are someone is looking at you, and feeling the same way. This begs the question: can money really buy happiness in a society which consumes so much of it? At first blush, it would seem so. But can...

What if they threw an election and no one cared? After all, both Biden and Trump had pretty much locked up their party's nomination long before this week. So, a lot of Americans didn't even bother voting. How will the sense of resignation impact the consumer and markets over the long months to November? Is the recent rally in cryptocurrencies and precious metals due to this sour sentiment, this an...

The government says the economy is growing rapidly and the U.S. consumer is alive and well. However, people don't seem to believe this apparent good fortune, and complain about having to tighten their belts. So, just how strong is the U.S. consumer? And, what would you least be willing to cut out of your budget if worst came to worst? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about wh...

This week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was higher in January than analysts had been predicting. The markets didn't like the news, much like consumers. The question remains: how much longer will inflation be a problem? If higher interest rates can't do it alone, what must happen in the economy? And from what Washington has been telling us, the economy has...

There is little argument much of this century's economic growth will come from emerging economies. However, that doesn't mean there will always be money to be made in them for US investors. Growth is one thing, profit is another and the return of profit is yet another. Do the powers that be in places like Beijing, Mexico City, Buenos Aires, Hanoi, New Delhi and elsewhere have US investors' best in...

The bickering, back-biting and name calling which we have come to expect from election cycles is already at a fever pitch. Although Donald Trump still has to get past Nikki Haley, the two political parties are wasting little time bad-mouthing each other. It is enough to make one tune down the volume or switch channels. How did we get to this point? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam and John...

This week, the SEC effectively approved Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency ETFs for retail investors. No longer will folks have to trade on some shadowy platform or even open up a Coinbase account. It is cryptocurrency for the masses, but is it a good idea? After all, can anyone effectively value, say, a Bitcoin? Is it really a currency? A method of exchange or store of value? Or is it a volatile asset class?...

While a lot of people make resolutions to start the year, few of them actually see them through to fruition. With that in mind, what should the planet's most powerful people resolve to do this upcoming year? What will they actually resolve? The two don't have to be the same. In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam and John try to solve the world's problems by guessing the new year's resolutions o...

What will the stock market do next year? Will the economy go into recession? How many times will the Fed cut rates, if they do so at all? As always, there are so many questions leading into a new year. In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam and John share their thoughts about what could be in store for 2024. Is it good news or bad? You will have to listen to find out.

This week, central banks across the world essentially said their collective fight against inflation was over. In the United States, the Fed's own data suggested it would start cutting the overnight rate roughly 3 times in 2024. Couple that with Fed Chairman Powell's dovish comments about inflation, and investors took it as the end of this tightening cycle. However, this begs the questions: 1) is i...

This past weekend, the CFP Committee chose its Top 4 teams to participate for the national championship. But were they the best, let alone the most deserving teams? Is there any real difference between the best and the most deserving? Or did the committee simply make a business decision? After all, money talks, and it always has. In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the upcomi...

After surprising right-wing victories in elections in Argentina and the Netherlands, pundits have noticed there seems to be a growing trend towards nationalism, especially in Europe. While some outlets blame record immigration levels for this change in sentiment, the causes could also be economic. After all, has globalism produced the economic benefits in Europe or South America that its supporter...

This past week, the board of directors at OpenAI abruptly terminated co-founder and CEO Sam Altman. This came as a shock to just about everyone but the board itself. However, it reopened the conversation about AI and its potential future impact on, well, everything. That it has the potential to fundamentally change our lives and conduct business is without question. However, who will benefit the m...

Depending on to whom you are talking, America's global influence is either plummeting or slowly decreasing. Regardless, it seems no one feels the US is in ascendency. How did this come about and what are the reasons? Further, what does it mean for the US economy, if anything at all? Does it matter if the US is no longer the world's policeman, but is still a major economic force? Are there any gene...

Although analysts keep saying inflation is coming down, prices at the store certainly aren't. This is the difference between relativity and absolutism. Although prices have been elevated for a while, consumers continue to have sticker shock. So, how much longer will it be before the average U.S. consumer accepts higher prices are here to stay and move on? While it be next year, 2025 or never? In t...

As everyone knows, Washington is already running eye-watering deficits. What happens when the U.S. has to significantly increase defense expenditures in order to fulfill our global promises? Couple that with an apparent unwillingness to address runaway entitlements programs, and how is the Treasury going to pay for it all? At least at current interest rates? Simply put, it isn't. At some point in...

Recently, consumers have been using drugs approved to treat diabetes to lose weight. Depending on the person, the results can be significant. Further, it seems people using these drugs for weight loss often change their consumption patterns, at least to some degree. While this is obvious great news for a country struggling with obesity, what does it mean to companies and economic sectors which dep...

Last weekend, Hamas unleashed a coordinated military attack against southern Israel, catching the latter off guard. While the world's leaders have condemned the attack, social media message boards and websites aren't anywhere close to being one-sided for the Israelis. Far from it. Since young people are more apt to use social media, is there a generational divide in public support for Israel? If s...

Long-term interest rates have climbed dramatically over the last two months. This has negatively impacted bond and stock investors. However, many people fear they have higher still to go. After all, Washington keeps running massive deficits. The Federal Reserve and foreign investors aren't buying as many Treasuries securities, and domestic investors want a high real rate of return. Then there is t...

This week, Ford announced plans to pause production on an electric vehicle battery assembly plant in Michigan. This was due to political pushback stemming from the realization that Ford was going to license the necessary technology from the Chinese firm CATL. However, given how far behind the US is in EV battery technology and supply-chain sourcing, is it realistic to imagine the Big Three expandi...

The division between labor and management seems to be growing around the world. From railway workers in Sri Lanka to doctors in the U.K. to screenwriters in Hollywood to autoworkers in the Midwest. Does it make sense? Or do those on strike not fully understand the bigger picture, even if they might have a legitimate grief? After all, telephone operators probably had gripes too. In this week's Trad...