Trade with Conviction

June Goh hosts her first episode with Abhishek Kumar as the US-Iran ceasefire cracks and Hormuz transits collapse to near zero. They cover Brent flipping back to backwardation, Russia's diesel export ban, China's product relaxation, European cracks near 60, the ADNOC tender, and a short HOGO trade idea. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://www.spartacommodities.com/market-o...

Felipe Elink Schuurman and research heads Neil Crosby, James Noel-Beswick, and Jorge Molinero mark episode 100 analyzing crude's peak weakness versus 10-year-high distillate rallies. Russia's refinery crisis, Hormuz rebalancing, and when stock replenishment becomes the real floor signal. Chapters:  **(01:47) Hormuz reopens, but the real question is what comes next**  10-15 million barrels per day...

Neil Crosby, June Goh and Abhishek Kumar unpack Brent's shock flip into contango as Hormuz reopens and AG crude floods back. Dubai swaps at minus one, the "Asian crude buffet," a potential Russian diesel ban, and why jet looks weaker than diesel into summer. Chapters:  (01:23) Brent flips to contango: the crude sell-off Brent and Dubai flip into contango as Hormuz reopens. Traders extrapolate supp...

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and James Noel-Beswick dig into the signed Iran-US MOU and a market pricing rapid de-escalation. Crude under $80, Dubai swaps in contango, an oversold barrel. They weigh whether Hormuz reopens cleanly or shipping delays keep oil short for longer. Chapters:  (00:31) The Iran MOU: signed, but what was signed? A $300bn package, a 60-day Hormuz waiver and a deal tha...

Neil Crosby hosts with Michael Ryan and June Goh. Growing Hormuz transits, a record 262 VLCC orders, Atlantic tonnage oversupply, softening Dubai premiums, and why Singapore VLSFO blend margins are building a bullish case into Q3. Chapters:  (00:48) Atlantic freight: the tonnage trap Ships flooding the Atlantic from all segments as Persian Gulf flows shrink, driving wild rate swings. (04:47) Iran,...

Felipe Elink Schuurman hosts Neil Crosby and first-time guest Jay Maroo. The episode covers the stalled US-Iran peace process, Hormuz transit at 10% of pre-crisis levels, Indian and Chinese product exports collapsing, Cushing approaching its 20 million barrel floor, and why crude, distillates, and gasoline all look too cheap. Chapters:  (01:15) Sleepwalking into the inventory crisis Lebanon compli...

Neil Crosby and June Goh cut through the noise on US-Iran deal speculation, unpacking why flat price is off, what 7 million bpd of Chinese crude imports means for diesel east-west dynamics, and why Sing FOGO holds up when bunker demand proves more inelastic than diesel. 00:00 – Hormuz risk and deal pricing Why the market is pricing an imminent deal, and why the evidence points the other way. 03:03...

Felipe Elink Schuurman, June Goh, and new analyst Abhishek Kumar cover a record 19.5mb stock draw that barely moved prices, the Russia OFAC waiver with no new barrels, India's supply strategy, Asia's group buying trend, and trade views across distillates, jet, fuel oil, and gasoline. Chapters: (01:02) Trump backs down and vessels start moving June on the Iran strike cancellation, ICE Brent's fall,...

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby, and James Noel-Beswick cover the stalling Iran deal, Karg Island's loading disruption, US diesel and gasoline stocks nearing commercial minimums, growing export ban risk, collapsing Brent differentials, and why the market keeps surprising on timing. Chapters: (01:08) Iran deal stalls and Karg Island goes quiet Neil on why the deal looks dead and what a loading...

Neil Crosby hosts with June Goh and Jorge Molinero. Iran deal uncertainty keeps markets trading headlines as US diesel stocks head for critical lows within weeks. June covers Saudi OSPs, record Japanese US crude purchases, and TMX. Jorge runs through the ARA-PAD1 gasoline arb and GASNAP strength. Chapters:  (00:31) Iran deal uncertainty The market trades headlines as US policy shifts erratically a...

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Neil Crosby, and Jorge Molinero on the crisis shifting West. Neil unpacks a 25-million-barrel US stock draw and trade ideas across Hogo, regrade, and diesel cracks. Jorge covers gasoline East-West flows and the US TAR opening. Chapters:  (01:20) Big picture: Iran war and the physical reset US drew 25 million barrels in one week. Neil explains why physical isn't pricing max...

Felipe Elink-Schuurman and June Goh cover the FT Commodities conference, where major trading house CEOs signalled no short-term resolution to Hormuz. June runs through crude premium collapse, EU sanctions, and a bullish fuel oil case into Q3. Chapters:  (01:04) FT Conference: No deal in sight, Russia backing Iran CEOs of Trafigura, Vitol, Mercuria and Gunvor: no short-term resolution. Mercuria's D...

Host Neil Crosby talks with June Goh and Michael Ryan about a week of conflicting signals on Iranian vessels, accelerating refinery run cuts across Asia, and the secondary unit squeeze nobody's talking about. The team unpacks why a peace deal wouldn't fix markets overnight, how freight rates could spike if tankers can't reposition in time, and where the real pricing action is in diesel and gasolin...

The ceasefire is two days old. Nothing has changed on the water. Sea mines in the channel. IRGC still threatening vessels. No owners willing to move. Hormuz flows stuck below 50% for at least another month. Paper sold off hard on the headlines. Already rebounding. Physical premiums at records across crude, naphtha, and diesel. Every risk-off dip is looking like a buying opportunity. Chapters:  (00...

In this episode of Trade with Conviction, Felipe, Phil, and James break down the supply crisis rattling every product market, and where traders can find edge right now. Chapters (00:17) Geopolitics: The Hormuz Standoff Felipe and Phil debate whether anything has really changed, Trump's contradictory messaging to markets, Israel, GCC and Iran simultaneously, the UAE's UN letter invoking Article 7 t...

Paper market has been calm… but physical still flashes risk. In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, we break down a market that doesn’t add up. Middle East escalation. Russian supply under threat. West-East flows rising. Chapters:  (00:37) Headlines: Middle East escalation & price volatility The team breaks down rising tensions between Iran, Israel, and the US, Hormuz risks, and why p...

In this emergency episode of the Trade with Conviction podcast, host Felipe is joined by analysts June and Neil to break down one of the most volatile weeks in recent oil market history. Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, Monday's shock de-escalation, suspicious pre-announcement trading in oil, bonds and equities, drone attacks across Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and a fire at Valero Port Arthur's die...

The war in the Middle East escalated again. Israel struck South Pars. Iran responded with attacks on Ras Laffan and Saudi refineries. And as this episode was recorded, Reuters confirmed Yambu had stopped loading oil. Flat price pushed above $115. WTI collapsed to a $20 discount to Brent as export ban fears gripped the market. TC14 and TC15 have more than doubled since the conflict started. Jet fue...

This episode focused on how the escalating conflict is moving beyond headline risk and into a full physical market disruption, with tanker attacks, port damage, refinery outages and force majeure declarations reshaping crude and product flows across the Middle East and Asia. The team unpacked why government intervention, including SPR releases and possible demand controls, is only a partial fix, a...

This emergency episode unpacks the market fallout from the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and why the real issue is no longer just crude, but the knock on impact across products, refinery runs and freight. The team looks at why SPR releases are unlikely to solve a disruption of this scale, how Asia is absorbing the biggest immediate hit, why gasoline, jet and distillates are becoming th...

In this emergency episode, the team unpacks the fast moving market impact of the Iran conflict, focusing on how disruptions are showing up first through shipping and insurance, then cascading into crude and refined products. Chapters (00:50) Emergency episode: What happened, what matters, what to watch A rapid briefing on the Iran conflict, early market signals, and the key variables for traders....

In this special episode, the team reacts to the sudden escalation in the Middle East following attacks involving Iran, Israel and the US, focusing on the immediate market impact rather than long term forecasts. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz effectively halted, the discussion centres on whether the market is facing a logistical bottleneck or a genuine supply shock, and how that distinc...

In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, the team unpacks a market caught between geopolitics and structural freight disruption. From high-stakes Iran negotiations and US tariff shocks to VLCC rates tripling in two months, we break down how crude flows, refining margins, and arbitrage economics are being reshaped in real time. (01:01) Geopolitics: Iran, Tariffs and OPEC The team breaks down...

In this episode of the Trade with Conviction podcast, the Sparta team breaks down what's moving oil markets, not just in Iran, but Russian crude switching, gasoline contango and beyond Iran tensions boil while Europe doubles down on navigating with the new world order. Gasoline spreads swing on Dangote news, heavy selling in the Sing 92 window. Russian refinery attacks could be the start of a dies...

In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction - live from IE Week in London - the team unpacks the growing disconnect in global energy markets: clear signs of a crude glut, yet spreads remain stubbornly backwardated as geopolitics and sanctions keep traders on edge. Chapters:  (00:17) Oil glut vs geopolitical premium Is the surplus real? Heavy crude weakness, inventory builds, and why spreads ref...