Trade with Conviction

Oil markets were driven by geopolitics this week, with Iran-related headlines triggering sharp swings in price. In this episode of Trade with Conviction, the team unpacks what the latest moves mean for the oil risk premium, before turning to crude markets and India’s buying patterns, Russian supply, and Middle East replacement flows. Chapters (00:31) Geopolitics and the oil risk premium Iran de-es...

This week’s episode breaks down a market being pulled in two directions: geopolitical risk is driving flat price higher, while physical balances and inventories still point to a long market. The team covers escalating Iran risk, renewed Venezuela uncertainty, and how shifting global politics (including India’s positioning and a weaker dollar) are shaping sentiment. From there, they dive into key p...

This episode steps back from day to day price noise to examine how geopolitics is increasingly shaping oil markets across crude and products. The team unpacks the easing but unresolved US EU trade tensions, Venezuela’s uncertain return to market, and why Iran remains a background risk. From there, the discussion moves into how these geopolitical risks are keeping crude structures tight despite loo...

In this episode, the team breaks down how a fragile, two sided oil market is being shaped by geopolitics rather than fundamentals. With Venezuela, Iran and Russia all back in focus, they explore how sanctions risk, shifting trade flows and political uncertainty are keeping crude exposed to sharp risk rallies even as the broader balance points back towards oversupply. The conversation moves through...

The team kicks off 2026 by unpacking why flat price looks deceptively calm while physical markets are quietly shifting underneath. The discussion spans Venezuelan crude disruptions and heavy sour dislocations, Saudi OSPs and a softening Asian crude complex, tumbling freight reopening arbitrage routes, and tightening signals in gasoline and light ends. Across crude, gasoline, fuel oil and distillat...

In the final episode of the year, the team breaks down the key macro and geopolitical drivers shaping Q1 2026 and what they mean for the physical barrel. They cut through Venezuela and Ukraine headlines, softening economic signals, and growing oversupply concerns, before moving product by product: distillates enter Q1 on a tighter footing, naphtha remains volatile but structurally supported by Eas...

In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, the team breaks down the biggest questions shaping next year’s crude, margins, and demand outlook - and what traders should be preparing for now. Key Takeaways:  > What is the outlook for Chinese crude imports? > Can margins deflate or is spare capacity too tight? > Can demand surprise to the upside? > What do key producers do next year a...

In this episode, the team breaks down an unusually long crude market, muted price reactions to geopolitical risk, and what shifting tone from OPEC’s latest OSPs might signal for 2025. They dig into Venezuela’s political volatility and what any supply hit would really mean for global flows, alongside a US production surge driven by the Permian and Gulf of Mexico. The conversation then moves into pr...

Neil, Phil, and James unpack a week where headline noise around a possible Ukraine peace deal clashes with still tight product markets and a supposedly long crude balance. They explore why prompt Brent spreads are so firm despite talk of a glut, dig into how gasoline and other light ends moved from extreme tightness toward something more normal, and then switch to diesel and jet to look at Q1 arbs...

In this week’s episode, Neil steps in as host as the team unpacks a chaotic stretch in the oil market - from Russian export disruptions and the uncertain trajectory of US sanctions to a diesel market that has gone ballistic on genuine physical tightness. They explore shifts across crude grades, including North Sea softness, WAF heaviness, and surprising crude compatibility issues triggered by the...

This episode breaks down a week of tightening global oil product markets - from Saudi Arabia’s surprising crude allocations and renewed sanctions turbulence to refinery capacity constraints dominating trader chatter. The team dissects what’s behind surging distillate spreads, gasoline’s structural strength, and the interplay between arbitrage flows, refining runs, and global inventories heading in...

In this episode of Trade with Conviction, Rachel, Neil, and June dissect the current crude oil landscape - from easing sanctions anxiety and shifting Chinese buying patterns to the tug-of-war between term and spot contracts. They dive into the changing dynamics of Russian crude flows, China’s strategic reserve buildout, OPEC’s cautious moves, and a freight market on fire, painting a picture of a m...

In this week’s Trade with Conviction, Rachel, Phil, and James cut through another whirlwind week in oil markets. From Lukoil’s asset fire sale and CPC exemptions to OPEC’s pre-meeting suspense, the team unpacks how sanctions, refining margins, and global diesel strength are shaping sentiment heading into year-end. Phil dissects crude’s split personality — WTI’s premium into Europe versus value in...

In this episode of Trade with Conviction, hosts Rachel Williams, Philip Jones-Lux, and Neil discuss the seismic shifts in the oil market triggered by overnight news of U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, impacting Russian oil flows. They unpack the potential ramifications for global crude supply, particularly for India and China, while highlighting the uncertainty of President Trump's flip-flopp...

In this episode of Trade with Conviction, a Sparta podcast, the hosts examine how escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and China are shaping the oil markets. They explore how trade disruptions are influencing freight rates, the impact of recent sanctions on Chinese crude imports, and the current outlook for gasoline and refining margins across Asia. The discussion also delves into crude...

In this week's Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, Rachel Williams, Neil Crosby, and June dive into the oil market's most telegraphed glut, dissecting OPEC's recent 137 kbd production hike and its implications for global crude flows. They explore why Brent spreads remain resilient despite bearish fundamentals, analyse key trades like Brent-Dubai swaps and transatlantic gasoline arbitrage, and highlight...

In this episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, host Rachel Williams, alongside analysts Jorge and Neil, dissects the latest oil market dynamics. The discussion delves into bearish US inventory builds, OPEC’s anticipated production hikes, and Venezuela’s export surge to a five-year high. Gasoline markets are spotlighted with strong EBOB cracks driven by Dangote refinery disruptions, while Eu...

In this episode of the Sparta Market Outlook podcast, host Rachel Williams teams up with analysts James and Neil to dissect a turbulent week in oil markets dominated by escalating Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, prompting a partial Russian diesel export ban and renewed risk premiums across spreads like Brent and Gasoil East-West. They navigate the disconnect between bullish paper tr...

In this episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, the team dives into critical developments shaping global oil markets, with a focus on China's return to US WTI crude purchases despite tariffs, the impact of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining infrastructure, and the tightening product markets as global turnaround season looms. They explore declining Russian product exports, particularly gas...

In this episode of Sparta Market Outlook, host Felipe and guests Neil Crosby, Philip Jones-Lux, and Jorge Molinero discuss key takeaways from the APPEC conference, highlighting bearish crude sentiments amid perceived gluts, offset by geopolitical tensions and tight product markets. They explore refining constraints, product strength in naphtha, gasoline, and distillates, while questioning the timi...

’Twas the night before APPEC, when all through the desk Not a trader was sleeping, before days without rest; The charts were all plotted with meticulous care, In hopes that new flows soon would be there. When out in the market there rose such a clatter, We sprang to our mics to dissect every matter. With Rachel as host and our expert team cast, You’ll find all the insights on the Sparta Podcast. M...

This week’s Sparta Market Outlook Podcast dives into a storm of oil market moves. Host Rachel Williams and the team break down U.S.-India tariff shocks, Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries, and looming Fed rate cuts — while tracking North Sea DFL lows, tight European stocks, and a possible rebound in 0.5% fuel oil. From Dubai’s steady strength to shifting distillate flows, the episode delivers...

In this episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, host Rachel Williams and analysts Phil, Michael, and John dive into the latest oil market developments, focusing on the impact of geopolitical events and trade policies. They discuss the cautious trading environment amid Trump’s diplomatic moves on Ukraine and Russia, the unexpected strength in Dubai spreads, and the implications of new buyers...

  In this episode of Sparta Market Outlook, host Felipe Elink Schuurman, alongside Neil Crosby and June Goh, dives into the forces shaping global oil markets. The discussion centers on geopolitical tensions, particularly Trump's pressure on India to reduce Russian oil purchases, the anticipated Ukraine-Russia deal, and their implications for physical oil markets. The team also explores unexpected...

In this special 52nd episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, the team celebrates a year of delivering actionable oil market insights, boasting 2,000 monthly listeners. Departing from their usual short-term trading focus, hosts Felipe, Phil, Neil, and Hoa dive into wildcard theories, exploring the potential for a U.S. recession, the impact of Trump’s tariffs on oil markets, China’s strategic...