This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Iran’s drone attacks on Israel, in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its embassy in Damascus, shocked the world this weekend. Israel’s divided war cabinet is considering a response, the US has warned it will not take part in a counteroffensive, and world leaders fear an escalation into regional war. But will it really happen? Gavin Esler speaks to expert on the Iranian regime Prof Ali Ansari of...

Why does the militarily weaker side lose many battles but often win the war? In the 21st Century the David-vs-Goliath threat of asymmetric warfare – where small non-state militias and terror groups defeat vastly better armed nation states in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere – is back. Now armed groups including Yemen’s Houthi, Hamas and Islamic State are growing and re-energised by a vast new fundi...

Houthi attacks on shipping have thrown global supply lines into turmoil, and led 20 countries to intervene militarily. But the Red Sea logistics crisis is just the latest in series of shocks to the world trade system, from the Pandemic to Ukraine and beyond. What does it mean when any pirate with a missile and a TikTok account can hold domestic supplies to ransom? And who wants to take advantage?...

Special edition: On Friday March 22, Islamic State gunmen murdered more than 130 people in Moscow’s Crocus City Hall concert venue, just 12 miles from the Kremlin. Putin tried to direct the blame towards Ukraine, but it has emerged that Russia’s FSB had ignored plausible warnings of an impending terror attack from Western security services.  Gavin Esler speaks to Russian investigative journalist a...

The spying game was supposed to fade into history with the Cold War. But Vladimir Putin’s historic grievances, obsession with Ukraine and need to placate his own intelligence agencies have sent a new wave of espionage across the world. The West thinks we’re at peace. The Russians know we’re at war. So what are Western intelligence agencies going to do about it? Gavin Esler speaks to Russian invest...

Putin has used digital disinformation against Ukraine and the West since long before the Russian invasion, undermining US and EU support for Kyiv by smearing Ukrainians as Nazis and denying Russia’s many atrocities. Are we already in an information war? And how do we win it? Gavin Esler talks to longterm Putin-watcher and post-truth analyst Peter Pomerantsev, author of How To Win An Information Wa...

Iran – America’s arch-enemy and the Middle East’s malign “mini-Imperial power” – fans conflicts from Ukraine to Israel to Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon, and is said to be only weeks away from developing a nuclear weapon. But the Islamic Revolution is under sustained attack from within, under the banner of ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’. Can Iran maintain its hardline power in the Muslim world? What do its secon...

Russia’s war on Ukraine two years on. This time: How is Ukraine’s defence of its territory holding up under Putin’s onslaught? How do Ukrainians see the Trump Right’s obstruction of $60bn of aid to Kyiv? Is the loss of Avdiivka to Russia really what it seems? And how could the War end? Ukrainian journalist and Chatham House fellow Olga Tokariuk tells Oz Katerji how the war is going… and why Ukrain...

The first of two specials covering Russia’s war on Ukraine two years on. This time: Inside Russia. Avdiivka has fallen, Alexei Navalny is dead, and pro-Russia Republicans are starving Kyiv of ammunition. Putin finally feels the war could turn in his direction. Is he right? And how does the Russian tyrant keep control of a country where a restive mood is growing… and even fake elections can matter?...

From Cop28 to Manchester City to the attempted purchase of the Telegraph newspaper, the United Arab Emirates are suddenly flexing power and prestige across the Gulf. Behind it all is Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, known as MBZ, who mixes a show of modernisation with an iron will, especially regarding human rights. Who is MBZ? How has his tiny state become such a global player? And are the UAE...

The fear that a re-elected Trump would pull the US out of NATO haunts European leaders. Now he says he’d actively encourage Putin to attack European countries who haven’t “paid their bills”. Could a second Trump presidency really open the door for war in Europe? What contingency plans is NATO making? Has Europe really underspent on defence? And is Putin exploiting cracks in the European hard right...

Could the belligerence of North Korea – enigma, dynastic dictatorship, nuclear-armed regional menace – be coming to a violent head? Leader Kim Jong Un has torn up his country’s long-cherished goal of reunifying with the South; is ordering provocative missile launches; and ratcheting up tensions with the United States. Could he take the final step into war? Gavin Esler talks to DPRK expert and nucl...

The world’s future is darkening. Ukraine’s defence is in peril, the Red Sea and Israel/Hamas conflicts threaten to join hands, the US is stationing nuclear weapons in England again, and even conscription is back on the agenda. Where are these multiple crises in Ukraine and the Middle East heading? The This Is Not A Drill team of Gavin Esler, Kyiv-based conflict journalist Oz Katerji and independen...

Is peace with Putin even possible? In the early days of Russia’s war on Ukraine, negotiations seemed viable. Then came Bucha and the revelations of Russian atrocities on Ukrainian soil. Now Russia is again “putting out feelers” for peace talks – but would negotiation simply give Putin a chance to consolidate his gains and regroup for more? Oz Katerji tells the story of the “missed chance” of peace...

Tensions are rising across the Taiwan Strait. China is enraged that the Taiwanese people have chosen a man Beijing calls a “troublemaker”, William Lai, as their President. Now Xi Jinping has become personally invested in regaining the territory. While a hot military conflict would be disastrous far beyond the region, China has many other options from trade blockades to naval harassment. So how far...

Gavin Esler talks with Yemen expert Helen Lackner after a night of yet more conflict in the Middle East. Within hours of our recording with Yemen expert and author Helen Lackner analysing the Houthi militia’s attacks on Red Sea shipping vessels , the United States, supported by a coalition of the UK and eight other countries, led airstrikes on Houthi facilities in Yemen. The reaction from the Hout...

This is a special crossover episode with The Bunker, our daily politics podcast, and we’re bringing it to the TINAD feed too. Why are UK and US navies defending Western shipping against missile attacks and hijacks from rebels in the poorest country in the Middle East? The battle between the Yemeni government and the Houthi militia threatens to spill over into a wider regional conflict – and Iran i...

In twelve months’ time America will inaugurate a new President. It could be a man who says he’ll act as a “dictator on day one,” who rejects elections if he doesn’t win them, and whose America First ideas could shatter what remains of the global order. With a year to go, UCL Associate Professor in Global Politics Brian Klaas tells Gavin Esler how Donald Trump has damaged American politics more dee...

With wars raging in Ukraine and Gaza, tensions rising in Yemen and between China and Taiwan, populists eyeing elections across the world and the spectre of another Trump Presidency, 2024 could be the most dangerous year for global stability in two decades. How will the world’s various crises play out? And could there even be reasons for optimism? Gavin Esler looks at the year ahead with Lord Peter...

With his playbook of brutal invasion, cyberwar and intimidation, Vladimir Putin is the nightmare neighbour of every country that borders Russia. Beyond his crimes in Ukraine, could Putin’s ambitions run wider – into the heart of Europe? Gavin Esler explores how Russia is using weak spots along its border from Estonia to the Balkans to fan feuds, create chaos and tear at the fabric of the global or...

From ‘Stop the Boats’ to ‘Build the Wall’, mass migration is the great upheaval of our times, opening a poisonous political divide. Will population movement really tip our world into chaos as the populists and far-right agitators warn? Will democracies have to choose between mass migration or low growth? Are hardliners like Italy’s Meloni or Hungary’s Orbán really cutting migration to their countr...

Are we entering a new age of war? The number of violent conflicts in the world is increasing, and they’re lasting longer. Wars in Ukraine and Israel/Palestine threaten to merge into wider conflagrations. Autocrats and populists see chaos as a route to power. America can no longer guarantee global stability, and democracy is faltering. Gavin Esler speaks to international conflict analyst Emma Beals...

Why did Ukraine’s much-discussed counter-offensive of summer 2023 fail to turn the tide of the War? What’s really happening on the ground, and how might the third year of this historic conflict take shape? Conflict journalist Oz Katerji reports from Ukraine to discover how and where Kyiv has succeeded and faltered – what would change the war in Ukraine’s favour – and what the spectre of a Trump Pr...

The Hamas atrocities of 7th October and Israel’s overwhelming retaliation have plunged the region into its worst chaos in 50 years. How deeply involved was Iran in the Hamas attacks? Did Netanyahu’s political desperation and strategic bungling really open the door to the most anguished day in Israel’s history? And is there a way to end the carnage before it spreads?  Gavin Esler looks for answers...

Welcome to This Is Not A Drill – the new name for Doomsday Watch, with new host Gavin Esler. In our first episode: It’s one year to the US Presidential election. If Donald Trump is the victor he will be unbound by any fear of legal or democratic restraint. What will Trump do to get there? And what will he do if he wins? Gavin Esler talks to Bill Kristol, editor-at-large of conservative magazine Th...