The Writ

Last fall, I was joined by David Coletto, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data , to take a look at the new voter coalition that the Conservatives were building with a deep dive into his polling data. It was a really fascinating dissection of the polls , so I invited David back again on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast for another deep dive — this time into the demographics of the Canadian electorat...

If the proof of the pudding is in the eating, is the proof of the polls in Durham? We break down the results of this week's federal byelection as well as some new national polls. We then answer listener questions about the NDP's performance, the possibility of having an interim PM forced onto the hustings, and whether the Conservatives have the biggest tent. Then, Philippe tests my knowledge of a...

On Monday, voters in the Ontario riding of Durham will be going to the polls for a federal byelection to fill the seat vacated by former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole. It’ll be the culmination of what has been months of preparing for this contest. But what goes into running a byelection campaign? On this episode of The Writ Podcast , I’m joined by two seasoned campaigners to answer that. Fred D...

A new poll shows the NDP within spitting distance (yes, Philippe, that's a real thing) of the Liberals in the race for second place. What should we make of it — and some recent controversies that are dogging the Liberals? We also discuss new poll numbers showing the Ontario Liberals well ahead of the NDP for runner-up status behind Doug Ford, as well as a survey on the race to become the leader of...

This week on The Writ Podcast , I’ve reconvened the panel of political pollsters to discuss all the latest in federal politics, including Jagmeet Singh’s threat to pull out of his party’s agreement with the Liberals, the recent candidate nominations for the Conservatives and whether or not it’s a good idea for Justin Trudeau to try to tie Pierre Poilievre to Donald Trump. We also set expectations...

This week, Philippe and I discuss the latest threats from the New Democrats to rip up their confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals and just how likely it is that this could lead to the fall of the government. We also chat about new polls on how Canadians view support for Ukraine and where the parties stand in Quebec as chatter increases on the possibility of a third referendum on sovere...

Provincial byelections are happening in Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island, but those aren’t the only votes that are being chased in Atlantic Canada. With the polls suggesting Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have made significant gains in the region, candidates are beginning to emerge as contenders to take on Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, who used to be the dominant force in Atlantic...

Are cracks starting to show in the Liberal caucus — and can more of them be prevented if the polling numbers don't improve? Philippe and I also discuss views on health care, new numbers out of Alberta and dive into the listener mailbag. What happens if Donald Trump is unable to be the nominee? And what about the Conservatives' new star recruit in British Columbia? To join the Discord page for The...

British Columbia, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick are all scheduled to go to the polls in October, making 2024 an election year in all three provinces. While voting won’t take place for months, parties in these three provinces are preparing for their upcoming campaigns. So, to keep you up to date on where things stand, I’ll be dipping into these three provinces periodically throughout 2024 on The W...

After polls suggested the gap was narrowing a little between the Liberals and the Conservatives, a new survey puts the Conservatives back into landslide territory. We also discuss new polling on Canadians' views on the U.S. election, some upcoming byelections in Atlantic Canada and answer listener questions. Finally, Philippe gets his revenge on me for last week's Quiz. To join the Discord page fo...

On this special episode of The Numbers, we port over a favourite from The Writ Podcast to mark the third edition of what is now our annual holiday tradition: the Over/Under Contest! Yes, for the third time we throw caution to the wind and make our predictions for the political year to come. Plus, we see who has the most egg on his face from last year's guesses. To join the Discord page for The Num...

Justin Trudeau’s minority Liberal government survived another year but its prospects have never looked worse, as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives took a commanding lead in the polls over the summer and have never looked back. In the end, 2023 could prove to be a turning point in the political careers of both leaders, regardless of who wins the next election. It’ll either be the year when Poilievre...

The latest Abacus Data poll shows a nine-point swing between the Liberals and the Conservatives over the last few weeks, closing the gap to (a still wide) 10 points. Is it a mirage or a Christmas miracle for Justin Trudeau and crew? We also discuss some provincial polling out of the Prairies, an upcoming byelection in Toronto and answer listener questions. To join the Discord page for The Numbers...

Things have changed a lot over the last 12 months. At the beginning of 2023, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were still deadlocked. Now, the Conservatives have a decisive lead as the Liberals try to figure out where to go from here. Plus, Bonnie Crombie has become the new leader of the Ontario Liberals. What impact will that have on politics in the province? This wee...

This week, we chat about the latest polls that show the Liberals flirting with the NDP for third place. We also chat Liberal leadership polling and a little Ontario politics, plus we discuss the naming of the new female co-spokesperson of Québec Solidaire and sit down for a brief chat with Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, male co-spokesperson of the party. We've got listener questions and, of course, The Qu...

This weekend, voting will start for the Ontario Liberal leadership as the contest between Bonnie Crombie, Nate Erskine-Smith, Yasir Naqvi and Ted Hsu reaches its final stage. The result will be announced on December 2. But before the winner is revealed, voting will also take place in the riding of Kitchener Centre, where a provincial byelection is scheduled for November 30. Joining me this week to...

We discuss the latest polls that show the Liberals in deep trouble and how the carbon tax has become a vote loser for Justin Trudeau's government. We also chat about the OLP leadership race and new recruits for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and answer listener questions. Plus, Philippe comes up with his toughest quiz yet. To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episo...

The Liberals have held sway in Newfoundland and Labrador ever since the federal and provincial parties won the elections of 2015. But that could be changing. The latest polls suggest Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives might turn the province blue, and while Premier Andrew Furey’s Liberals are still narrowly ahead in provincial voting intentions, they now face a new challenger as the opposition...

On this episode of The Numbers , Philippe J. Fournier and I discuss some troubling polling and fundraising numbers for the Liberals and wonder how they could possibly keep this up for another 23 months. Plus, there's a shocking new poll out of Quebec, listener questions and a quiz that puts me on the spot.  To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday...

There has been a lot of movement in the polls over the last few months. But who are the people behind those numbers? Joining me this week on The Writ Podcast is David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data . He’s compiled data from his recent surveys to give us a deep dive into how voters have migrated since 2021 and what each party’s electoral coalition looks like today. (If you missed yesterday’s...

This week, Philippe J. Fournier and I chat about some new polling numbers on Justin Trudeau's leadership and we dissect the NDP's prospects coming out of the convention, where Jagmeet Singh scored 81% on his leadership review. We also discuss just how much Teflon is coating Doug Ford and his Ontario PCs, and answer listener questions — including whether any party could win a landslide the size of...

It’s been an eventful few weeks since Parliament returned, as foreign affairs have injected themselves into our domestic politics. And last week, Manitoba held a historic election that could have some lessons for parties outside of the province. To break it all down, I’m joined again by the political pollster panel. Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara , was director of research and adver...

We break down the results of the Manitoba provincial election and the Quebec byelection in Jean-Talon, as well as some new polling numbers out of Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador. We also answer listener questions (can the Conservatives ever win in Montreal?) and present our numbers of the week. To get access to the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes on Thursdays...

With just days to go before the Manitoba election comes to a close, the polls suggest it could be Wab Kinew and the NDP’s to lose. But can Heather Stefanson’s Progressive Conservatives hold on to win a third consecutive victory? To discuss these final stages of the Manitoba campaign, I’m joined by Curtis Brown , principal at Probe Research, Ian Froese , the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Man...

We discuss just how well Canadians know the names of the Conservative leader and the members of the Liberal cabinet, as well as news about India, the creation of a new federal party, the latest Manitoba polls and a potential snap election in New Brunswick. Plus, we answer listener questions and Philippe has another quiz for Éric. To get access to the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early a...