The Writ

This week on The Numbers , we break down the implications of Jagmeet Singh's decision to end the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. What does it mean for the upcoming byelections — and when will the general election be? We also discuss what new polls say about the impact of BCU's withdrawal from the upcoming B.C. election campaign. In the mailbag, we answer a listene...

With just a few weeks to go before the writ drop, the next election in British Columbia was thrown on its head Wednesday when Kevin Falcon announced he was withdrawing B.C. United from the race — and endorsing John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives. What does this mean for the NDP and Premier David Eby’s chances of re-election, as well as for the future of the once formidable, now former, B.C. Liberals?...

It's poll-a-palooza on The Numbers this week, as we tackle five federal polls, two B.C. polls and new numbers out of Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta. Also, there's a snap byelection call in Ontario that took us by surprise. We compare caucus sizes in response to a listener question, and then Philippe has a Quiz on historical premiers. To join the Discord page for The Numbers , get early ac...

The closest thing to a dynasty in Canadian politics is in Saskatchewan, where the Saskatchewan Party has governed since 2007. First under Brad Wall and now under Scott Moe, the Sask. Party has dominated in election after election, relegating the New Democrats to the opposition. But polls suggest the race in Saskatchewan could be the closest in decades. Could the dynasty come to an end when the pro...

What are the most likely results of the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections? We rank the potential outcomes — with a draft! We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for all parties (especially the NDP), the prospect of Pablo Rodriguez as PLQ leader, and some new polling numbers out of Saskatchewan. In our mailbag, we discuss what a Canadian VP sweeps...

Will Blaine Higgs and his Progressive Conservatives win a third consecutive election when New Brunswickers are called to the polls in October (or, perhaps, sooner), or will Susan Holt score a win for her Liberals in a national climate that is turning against her party’s brand? On this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast , I’m joined by Jacques Poitras , the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Fred...

A byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe Liberal seat in Montreal. Plus, another call could come in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona, where the Conservatives will put the NDP on the defensive. (Note: the Liberals announced their candidate for Elmwood–Transcona shortly after w...

On this episode of The Numbers , we discuss a new poll that gauges just how recognizable Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders and top figures in the Liberal Party really are to Canadians. We also chat about the latest federal numbers, the ubiquitous Mark Carney rumours, the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection and provincial polling out of British Columbia and Ontario. In the mailba...

As we wait to return from our break, we're back this week with an extended mailbag episode to answer listener questions, including: * Is it better to have an election in the summer or the winter? * Are the Liberals still the "natural governing party"? * Which past party leader who lost an election might have had a better shot at a different time? * Plus answers to questions on projection models, p...

The Toronto–St. Paul’s byelection ensured that this political summer would be a hot one, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces serious dissent within his caucus for perhaps the first time since becoming leader in 2013. What does this summer have in store for him and his Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives? To break it all down, I’m joined again by (most of) the pollster panel. Dan Arnol...

On this week's episode of The Numbers , we discuss what happened in the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. We also chat about Naheed Nenshi's landslide win in the Alberta NDP leadership race and provincial premiers' approval ratings. For the mailbag, we discuss whether Toronto–St. Paul’s was a one-off or not (and we have many more bye...

With the high-stakes byelection in Toronto–St. Paul’s on Monday, I invited David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data , to come back on the podcast to do another polling deep-dive — this time on on where things stand in Toronto and beyond. Armed with reams of polling data, we take a look at Battleground Toronto, as well as Justin Trudeau’s standing among various demographic groups across the coun...

On this week's episode of The Numbers , we discuss a new poll that puts the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals at the smallest its been in months. We also chat about some new polls out of Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec, and an upcoming byelection option for Naheed Nenshi in Alberta. We answer a question on the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and Philippe has more trivia for me in th...

The last two weeks in B.C. politics have been frenetic ones. First, B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon revealed that the B.C. Conservatives had pulled out of negotiations meant to prevent a vote-split that could re-elect David Eby’s NDP government. Then, the Conservatives announced that one BCU MLA, and then a second, were crossing the floor to join John Rustad’s party. It’s a lot of high drama with...

This week, we break down the latest federal polls and discuss whether or not they show a tightening of the race. We then delve into the Baie Verte-Green Bay byelection in Newfoundland and Labrador and the speculation of a snap election call in Ontario, and how those might be tied to Justin Trudeau's leadership. Plus, we have new numbers out of B.C. and a question from the mailbag on the federal by...

The polls suggest that Premier Wab Kinew is in the midst of a honeymoon after the Manitoba NDP’s victory last year, but that honeymoon will be put to the test on June 18 when voters go to the polls in the riding of Tuxedo, the seat of former premier Heather Stefanson and a riding that nearly joined most of the rest of the city in turning orange in October’s provincial election. But Tuxedo won’t be...

This week, we discuss another poll that shows a 20-point lead for the Conservatives, as well as some new numbers on how various religious communities are voting. We then delve into some provincial polling out of British Columbia and Quebec, and check-in on the Alberta NDP leadership race. In the mailbag, we chat about merger talks in B.C. and we close with a birthday-themed Quiz. To join the Disco...

Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives have been in power in Ontario for nearly six years, but the party’s polling remains robust and the PCs have just come off two byelection victories — including in a seat the Ontario Liberals were hoping to flip. What’s behind Ford’s enduring support, and what’s the state of Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals and the NDP under Marit Stiles as they start to look ahead to...

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss some BIG numbers that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are putting up in both national polls and first-quarter fundraising. What does this mean for Justin Trudeau? Plus, we chat about an odd poll out of British Columbia ahead of that province's fall election. In our mailbag, we answer a question on Poilievre and the PPC vote, and Philippe takes no p...

More than a week after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland presented her federal budget, we still don’t officially know whether it will pass a vote in the House of Commons as the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh hasn’t committed to supporting it. What’s behind his party’s will-they-or-won’t-they dance? Considering where the polls stand today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals certainly need the bud...

This week, we assess the pros and the cons of an election for the New Democrats as Jagmeet Singh mulls whether or not to support the Liberal budget. We also chat about an upset PC victory in a Newfoundland and Labrador byelection as well as another poll showing the B.C. Conservatives on the move. We answer listener questions, including whether there is a Joe Manchin-style riding in the House of Co...

The federal budget is only being presented next week, but already we know a lot of its highlights — thanks to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau laying it all out for us ahead of time. What’s behind this unusual strategy, and will the Liberals be able to use the budget to change the dial? Plus, what position does Trudeau’s jurisdictional fights with the premiers put Pierre Poilievre in? And with the Ne...

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether or not the gap is narrowing between the Conservatives and the Liberals. We also delve into the question of whether Chinese interference in the 2021 election cost Erin O'Toole seats and his job. Plus, two byelections have been called in Ontario. What to make of the races in Milton and Lambton–Kent–Middlesex? In our mailbag, w...

The Alberta New Democrats are looking for a new leader to replace Rachel Notley, and the campaign got a jolt this week when Rakhi Pancholi, one of the top contenders, withdrew from the running to throw her weight behind former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi. It raises many questions about the state of the race — including whether or not it’s already over. To break it all down, I’m joined this week by...

This week, Philippe and I chat about some of the latest federal numbers and how a trio of provincial Liberal leaders have come out against the carbon tax, putting Justin Trudeau in a bind. We also discuss what the political future of Liberal MP Anthony Housefather could mean for his riding on the island of Montreal. Plus, we have provincial polling out of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan an...