The Writ

When it comes to public opinion, it’s hard not to see this past spring as a success story for Mark Carney and the Liberals. They hold a wide lead over the Conservatives and the prime minister’s approval ratings are still well over 50%. But are there vulnerabilities and challenges that Carney will have to tackle this summer? What can Pierre Poilievre do to get his party out of the polling doldrums?...

The Writ Podcast is back for the 2026 political season, and what better way than to re-convene the Pollster Panel! Dan, Andrew and James are back to break down the state of public opinion in federal politics. What do they make of Mark Carney’s bump in the polls after his Davos speech? What challenges does Pierre Poilievre face after passing his leadership review? What lanes are open to the New Dem...

John Hogan’s Liberals are looking for their fourth consecutive victory under a third different leader on October 14, when Newfoundlander and Labrador goes to the polls. Hoping to end the Liberals’ decade-long run in power are Tony Wakeham’s Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats under Jim Dinn. What are the major issues in this provincial election and what should we keep an eye on as we e...

The final days of a campaign can be hectic. The Conservatives had to pull together a couple of advertisements on short notice. Every party is sending their leader on a cross-country tour and volunteers on the ground are pulling out all the stops to ID their supporters in order to get them out to the polls on election day. There’s a lot going on in this last week before election day. Ads, tour, get...

The tension rises and the drama builds. The results have been trickling in all night — first it was too early to call, then it was too close to call. But, finally, the networks are ready. The anchor cuts off whoever is speaking and says “we’re ready to make a projection.” There’s a brief pause as the graphics come on the screen and the music pipes in. It took a long time, but the network is now re...

We’re entering a critical phase of this election campaign as the leaders face-off in two debates and advance voting begins this weekend. The polls suggest the margin could be tightening somewhat between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. Could the debate shake things up? On this episode of The Writ Podcast , the Pollster Panel is back to survey the current landscape, disc...

Parties proudly present their slate of candidates in every election shortly before dumping some of them. It’s an inevitable part of every campaign — rejecting candidates who don’t meet a party’s vetting standards and ejecting candidates when rival parties have dug up the dirt on them. So, what’s the process behind candidate vetting? And how do parties go about compiling, and then using, opposition...

We’re deep into the second week of this election campaign and it appears to be Mark Carney’s to lose. But just how solid is the support for the Liberals, and what can Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives do to get back into the race? This week on The Writ Podcast , I’m joined ahead by the Pollster Panel to break it all down. Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara , was director of researc...

Mark Carney kicked off Canada’s election campaign on Sunday and already parties are discovering that their best laid plans can go awry very quickly. So, what goes on behind the scenes when parties draw up their strategies for a campaign and what happens when they have to react to the unexpected? Throughout this election, I’ll be joined periodically by three veteran party organizers to explain the...

We’re apparently only days away from an election call and the polls suggest that Mark Carney’s Liberals have taken the pole position ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. So, what should we make of these emerging trends and how should they inform each party’s strategy heading into this campaign? Plus, just how will parties go about polling the electorate over the next six or so weeks? This we...

Canada’s political environment appears to be in flux, as the threats of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, the resignation of Justin Trudeau and the resulting Liberal leadership race have jostled what had been a steady trendline in the polls. What to make of the diverging numbers and how do parties have to adjust their strategy as everything shifts beneath their feet? Plus, we also discuss...

Chrystia Freeland’s resignation as finance minister on Monday has thrown Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government into chaos. What should we make of this unpredictable week in Canadian politics, and where do Trudeau and the Liberals go from here? There’s a lot to unpack, and this week I’m joined by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and The Globe and Mail ’s Stephanie Levitz to try to make some sense of it....

Four new polls put the Liberals and New Democrats within zero to two points of each other — and behind the Conservatives by margins of 19 to 23 points. We delve into the numbers and what they mean for each of the parties. Has Justin Trudeau’s promised GST holiday helped or hurt his chances? We also discuss provincial polls coming out of Ontario and Quebec, where two incumbent premiers (Doug Ford a...

A new poll, employing a new methodology, has the Conservatives at their highest and the Liberals at their lowest levels of support in years — maybe even a decade. What to make of it? On this week’s episode of The Numbers , we also break down Tim Houston’s PC landslide in the Nova Scotia election and take a look at some recent polls out of Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island. Note to...

A new poll by Abacus Data puts the Liberals and NDP neck-and-neck in national voting intentions, well behind the Conservatives. But this isn’t the first time it’s happened. Is it a blip or another worrying sign for Justin Trudeau? On this episode of The Numbers , we take a look at the federal polling landscape. We then discuss some new numbers out of Quebec before taking a deep-dive into the Nova...

The Liberals face a tough test — maybe their toughest test yet — in an upcoming byelection in the B.C. Lower Mainland. Will Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose their third contest in a row? We also take a look at the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP. Then, we discuss new provincial polling numbers ahead of Nova Scotia’s...

Pollsters under-estimated Donald Trump’s support in his first two presidential campaigns. Did they do it a third time this year? We take a look at how the polls performed south of the border — and what the results could mean for politics on this side of it. We also dissect some of the latest federal polling and fundraising numbers, plus we take a look at where things stand in the early days of the...

Incumbents in all three provinces that voted in October took their licks, but David Eby in British Columbia and Scott Moe in Saskatchewan managed to secure re-election. That wasn’t the case for Blaine Higgs in New Brunswick, who lost not only the premier’s chair but his own seat. What happened in these three provincial campaigns — and what lessons might be drawn out of them as Justin Trudeau, Pier...

This week on The Numbers , we parse through the surprising results of the British Columbia and New Brunswick provincial elections. What’s next for the B.C. Conservatives, what do we make of the Liberals’ shellacking of the PCs out east and how did the polls do? We also discuss the mini-revolt within the Liberal caucus and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau’s leadership. There’s also a...

Justin Trudeau faces a leadership challenge from within his own caucus — will it be the beginning of the end for him? Plus, there are just days to go in the election campaigns in British Columbia and New Brunswick. We break down the latest polls, plus some new numbers out of Saskatchewan, which is also hurtling toward its own decision day. We then play a Provincial Election Draft and answer questi...

There are less than two weeks to go in the B.C. and New Brunswick provincial elections, while Saskatchewan’s campaign officially got underway. We’ll know who has won these three contests by the end of the month, but for now all three might be too close to call. Back to provide some updates from the campaign trails on this episode of The Writ Podcast (and a day early!) are Richard Zussman , Global...

This week on The Numbers , we discuss a couple of new polls that put the Conservatives first, the NDP second and the Liberals in third. Is this the start of a new trend? We also chat about the state of the race in British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives have pushed ahead David Eby's NDP, and a new poll out of Quebec that shows continued trouble for Premier François Legault. In the mailbag,...

The writs dropped last week in both British Columbia and New Brunswick as the dates for the next provincial elections were officially set for October 19 in B.C. and October 21 in New Brunswick. The polls suggest that both campaigns are too close to call, which means the next three weeks could prove decisive. To update us on the latest developments in these two elections, I’m joined this week on Th...

This week on The Numbers , we parse through the results of Monday's byelections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. Is it End Times for the Liberals? We also grade ourselves on our Byelection Draft and Over/Under choices. Plus, a confidence vote is on the docket next week. What do we make of the Bloc's early positioning — and what about Pablo Rodriguez's decision to make the jump to pro...

The fall political season could prove to be a tumultuous one, as the end of the deal between Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP opens up the possibility of a snap election and ensures that brinksmanship will be the order of the day, at least until that vote happens — something that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives will try to force as soon as possible. But a potential catalyst for u...