The Wise Investor Show®

Too often assumptions seem to allude to the markets returning to the realities of the last decade, instead of how the economy functioned for decades and decades before the Great Financial Crisis. This week, we look at why we should likely assume this is normal and it's not bad if you accept it. The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions of the hosts and guests and does not n...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, discusses how the outlook for corporate earnings, corporate balance sheets and consumer spending are still heathy and likely a greater source of market stability than generally recognized. He notes that, based on historical norms, it would not be surprising nor damaging over the longer term if the current market consolidation morphs into a c...

This week we're absorbing key inflation data and looking at how it's giving some needed relief to the financials and then a look at the results and road map for Disney, with various reactions to their quarterly call.  The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions of the hosts and guests and does not necessarily represent the views of Raymond James and Associates, Inc., The Wise...

Simon thinks about the nearly complete recovery of the stock market to the previous all-time highs and considers how effective the KISS rule (Keep it Simple, Stupid) has been for investors. He highlights seven observations of market and investor behavior that reinforce how simple, straight-forward thinking usually trumps esoteric, complicated strategies and products. He also highlights the latest...

Gregory S. Smith, CFP®, ChFC®, CPWA®, CTFA covers the nuances of the Secure Act 2.0 legislation including impacts on inherited IRAs, 529 plans, qualified charitable distributions, and required minimum distributions. Discussing how the changes like higher QCD limits, conversion of 529 funds to Roth IRAs and a pushed-back RMD age can benefit savers through strategies like Roth conversions, social se...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, discusses how changes in the trajectories of key economic and fundamental variables often influence financial markets the most. He highlights changing inflation rates, evolving perceptions about the influence of higher interest rates and an uptick in positive analyst earnings revisions as key reasons for recent strength in stocks. He also hi...

This week we look at some very bullish conditions that give us hope the market can continue, albeit met with reasons to be prudent. The market DOES believe the Fed will hike again, but accepts that it's almost over and we've survived the worst. Some sectors are in bad shape and this week we'll talk about one which is hit by all this, while others have brighter futures. Also, a return to a potentia...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, explores how the first six months of the year recall several timeless investing lessons: bad news sells, short-term market predictions are folly and contrarians are usually wrong. He also discusses the reduced odds of a recession, at least for now, and how to think about the stock market's continued top-heaviness. He highlights the most rece...

This week we look at the latest in economic data and then contrast different approaches to investing, including the different schools within the Value camp. Later, an update on Fiserv (FISV).   The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions of the hosts and guests and does not necessarily represent the views of Raymond James and Associates, Inc., The Wise Investor Group, or thei...

This week we reflect on where the markets been the last 6 months, 18 months, 15 years, and 50 years. We identify that really the capital markets are very well positioned compared to many points in history, that last year was historically worse than it felt, and that we have reason for cautious optimism today.  The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions of the hosts and guest...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, discusses how earnings resilience is still a key reason to not dismiss the case for a new bull market. He also highlights how poor market breadth and profit recessions do not automatically lead to bad stock markets. The interplay between hopes for a "soft landing" and a still hawkish Fed will continue to influence trading. He suggests the ov...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, discusses the importance of not directly conflating an economic outlook with a stock market opinion. However, he also notes that some forecasts for recession have become more tempered recently and how there is a solid case for a more benign slowdown. He notes how there exist potential macroeconomic, valuation, market positioning and asset fl...

We've been able to move past the US debt limit crisis and refocus on our lingering fears, of higher interest rates and lower earnings. This week we look at what's driving new concerns of more rate hikes and a value name to consider if the market turns South. The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions of the hosts and guests and does not necessarily represent the views of Ray...

Simon Hamilton, Portfolio Manager and Managing Director, discusses the current landscape including debt ceiling concerns, the intense bifurcation in the stock market and interest rates rising anew. He suggests the case for investor optimism is being buried in all the negativity and that better than expected earnings, healthy consumer balance sheets and still relatively tame credit spreads argue ag...

We've pivoted from a focus on the Fed to a focus on default but today we'll focus on the consumer, their unemployment levels, and the results from their leading brands. The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions of the hosts and guests and does not necessarily represent the views of Raymond James and Associates, Inc., The Wise Investor Group, or their respective affiliates a...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, discusses how the market's attention could shift from constant Fed watching to economic and company-specific fundamentals. The resilience of profit margin strength will be a key focus as the overall economy continues to slow. He mentions the market's historically narrow breadth that is obscuring overall market weakness and what it means for...

This week the Fed may have reached the end of their tightening cycle. They delivered what was expected but the markets didn't like it. Why not, what's next, and a bunch of earnings discussed on this weeks podcast. The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions of the hosts and guests and does not necessarily represent the views of Raymond James and Associates, Inc., The Wise Inv...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, cites the historical evidence suggesting that being permanently bearish is a failing strategy. He also frames the current bull and bear narratives and suggests that a negative outlook needs to be more nuanced. He then examines the pros and cons in the latest earnings reports from MSFT, GOOGL, V and DHR. The information contained in this podc...

This week we lament the market's shift from struggling with the Fed raising interest rates to the market struggling with the effect those hikes are having on the economy. While we haven't been able to find much relief, we'll also talk about Tractor Supply, which may be better positioned that other consumer retail names. The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions of the hosts...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, discusses the resiliency of the stock market in light of growing recession fears and falling earnings estimates. He expresses optimism that markets often bottom well before corporate earnings but has concerns around elevated valuations, overly optimistic earnings forecasts and how a small number of names have been responsible for most of the...

This week, the US markets were confronted by a series of disappointing labor reports and the World Bank warned against a lost decade of global growth. We're shifting quickly from worrying about inflation to worrying about revenues, but inflation isn't beaten yet.

The most aggressive rate hikes in history has started to break things in the economy. This week, we look at the risks of it getting worse, the erroneous values of banks, and the downside risks to earnings estimates, while finding value in a more traditional fixed income approach.

Simon Hamilton, Managing Driector and Portfolio Manager, discusses the volatility in the stock and bond markets following the most recent rate hike from the Fed. He talks about the signals bond yields and sector divergence in the stock market are sending. He also provides some further commentary on the recent bank collapse and starts to look at some of the potential repercussions that could be fel...

Simon discusses the stock and bond market reactions to the recent troubling news flow from the banking sector. He talks about the risks of investment concentration as well as some additional background on what has fueled the uptick in volatility. He notes that individual investors should not make the same mistakes in their own fixed-income portfolios. He also suggests corporate earnings could pote...

This week we continue to look at the evolving and losing battle against inflation, our failures to attach it from the supply side, and then a examination of the root cause of a new threat to the markets, which may be limited or the start of something bigger.