The Wise Investor Show®

Write-Up: Simon discusses how the market is susceptible to a shock and was wrong-footed by the recent hot CPI print . He references some of the current extreme positioning in the market and how a reversion to the mean in terms of what sectors and styles are favored could be in store. He suggests that the ultimate path for both inflation and rates is still likely to be down but that it may be a bum...

With the Fed still front and center, the importance of earnings season and forward guidance has its say in the markets this month. We really may be turning the quarter for interest rates and earnings growth, despite some prevailing negative macro sentiments. We'll review it all, along with two specific stocks on this week's show.   The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions...

Simon laments how investors are more informed than ever but are not necessarily wiser given the ever-present barrage of misleading, sensationalist and inflammatory headlines. He offers a dozen observations on the economy and financial markets that investors should understand in order to make prudent decisions going forward. He also highlights recent quarterly earnings reports from UPS, MSFT and DH...

It's a bit early but for the financial markets, this Friday was Groundhog Day. We got the best indication if the Fed would see its shadow or not and if we'd soon see interest rate cuts or a longer cold period of higher inflation. On this week's show we look at the results and how we can have so much pressure higher on inflation but still see a resolution of a soft landing. The information containe...

Simon discusses how in many ways 2023 was the polar opposite of 2022, and the early trends so far this year are contrary to how markets closed a few weeks ago. The markets will fool most of the people, most of the time. He updates on what to expect with 4th quarter earnings reports. Simon also shares some thoughts on the challenging realties of portfolio diversification and how the US consumer is...

On this week's podcast, we look at the other side of monetary policy's fight against inflation, quantitative tightening. The street's now looking to pivot off of the pivot, back to neutral, from the recent efforts to reduce the Fed's balance sheet. We'll explain how this works and what it means, and then a quick review of one of our top holdings.      The information contained in this podcast repr...

Simon discusses how patient, longer term-thinking clients may have bested those tethered to overly confident macro-economic forecasts last year. So far here in 2024, we have already seen different leadership from what dominated over most of the past 12 months. Remaining diversified, flexible and humble still seems prudent especially considering how the "soft landing" expectation has become consens...

Investors have been naughty and nice since the end of October, and on this week's podcast, we wrap up 2023 by going back and forth between two Wall Street forecasts for 2024 that couldn't be more different. We look at their common ground and try to figure out who to believe and how to position our portfolios for the new year. The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions of the...

Simon identifies six current misperceptions he feels could be injurious to sound portfolio management in 2024. He discusses such potential pitfalls as not believing enough in the power of market momentum, overweighting the influence of the Fed, and ascribing too much importance to the influence of the President on market direction. Stocks mentioned: COST, CVX The information contained in this podc...

Ann Summerson discusses some ideas for year-end financial planning strategies. She also talks about how the 4% withdrawal rule is having a resurgence. And she offers a distribution strategy to consider when leaving larger IRA's to the next generation.  The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions of the hosts and guests and does not necessarily represent the views of Raymond J...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, discusses the current state of the markets including concentration in the "Magnificent Seven." He discusses how their likely superior execution may already be discounted to some degree and that portfolio balance could work better going forward. He also has thoughts on the market-moving power of investor sentiment, profit margins and potentia...

On this weeks show we look at inflation during various periods of time in the US. How important is a 2% target? Well, there are long periods higher than that when we did well. There are others that are artificially low. Also, we start looking at 2024 outlooks with a review of one firm's published forecast for next year. The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions of the hosts...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, references six common investor mistakes he has continually seen over the years and contextualizes them in the current market backdrop. He has comments on the dangers of over-concentration, investing off yesterday's news, market timing and other problematic investor behaviors. The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions...

We wrap up a very strong recovery in the stock and bond markets by looking at how much we may have borrowed from future results, where we can still find returns, and a look at a name the drug sector. The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions of the hosts and guests and does not necessarily represent the views of Raymond James and Associates, Inc., The Wise Investor Group, o...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, urges investors to filter out the current noise and headlines to focus on what's actually happening in the markets and economy. He presents some of the current realties to provide a balanced outlook framed within some historical perspective. He also reviews the latest earnings and news from DIS, AAPL, MDLZ and STZ. The information contained...

This week we feature the results of two core holdings, one of which is struggling and one of which is soaring and talk about why we'd stay the course on both for now. MSFT DHR The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions of the hosts and guests and does not necessarily represent the views of Raymond James and Associates, Inc., The Wise Investor Group, or their respective affil...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, discusses how most stocks in the broad US stock market are negative so far year and how in many cases conservative investors have been punished the most. However, he cautions against over-trading and giving up on short-term poor performers and emphasizes how on the fixed income side today's headwinds could become tomorrow's tailwinds. He als...

On this week's show, we diagram how black swan events happen in the markets, how to be prepared for them and how to react when they happen. Without being able to predict them, reflecting on previous ones and visualizing our behavior can ready us for when the next one comes around. The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions of the hosts and guests and does not necessarily rep...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, notes how, in addition to the recent inaccuracy of consensus economic and market forecasts, many of the traditional relationships between asset classes, economic variables and price trends have not held true. He then discusses the narrow breadth of the stock market, the sharp underperformance of dividend-paying stocks and dispersion in secto...

This week, Matt Anderson discusses I-Bonds and whether now is a good time to consider other alternatives.  He provides a brief overview of I-bonds, the importance of knowing your investment objective for owning the bonds and an analysis of how to view the bonds in terms of the projected interest rate reset in November.  In the second half of the episode, Matt pivots to discuss a recent report titl...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, discusses some of the reasons for the current September swoon in both stocks and bonds. He talks about an incrementally more hawkish Fed, a strong dollar, government shutdown concerns and seasonality. He cautions against reacting too strongly to the uptick in volatility and suggests that maintaining proper portfolio balance is very much appr...

There's nothing in the street. Looks any different to me. Pete Townshend wasn't talking about economics, but it explains today's environment, which isn't new and it shouldn't be a surprise, but this week we look at the market's reaction to the reality that this is instead a return to normal, and we won't get fooled again.   The information contained in this podcast represents the opinions of the h...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, argues that the financial headlines often focus investors on the wrong things, while more salient, market-driving developments get less attention. He provides examples within the economic data, examines earnings trends, looks at valuations and considers the potential opportunity in bonds. He also reviews the recent underperformance of the Co...

The market rode growing expectations that lower interest rates are not on the horizon. The economy remains strong and employment remains robust, but a few factors scared the inflation assumptions further higher, and they're not under the Fed's control. Could that result in stagflation? We'll look at that this week along with a focus on a tough week for Apple. The information contained in this podc...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, offers some timely observations on investor behavior and highlights a few positive aspects of the economy flying slightly under the radar. He also encourages investors to not overly fixate on recent bond market losses and, instead, understand how the highest fixed-income yields in 15 years will likely drive better returns going forward. He s...