The Wise Investor Show®

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, discusses the vacillating stock market narrative and how trying to divine the timing and magnitude of sector movements may be a fool's errand. He examines how stocks have fared in similar elevated rate environments and how the inflation trajectory will likely be more impactful. He also makes the case for locking in current bond yields and to...

A year after Russia invaded Ukraine, we look at the financial impacts the war has had. Where did the initial headlines drive the markets and what are the tangible impacts (financially) now that we've normalized the war.

Simon Hamilton, Portfolio Manager and Managing Director, notes the rapidly changing market narrative and how most recently markets are pricing in incrementally more rate hikes from the Fed. He talks about harnessing emotions in such a volatile environment and how it is important to not play the "regret game", rely on stock tips from the media, or chase past performance. He also offers a few though...

As the consensus grows for a soft economic landing, so does the consensus for lower returns going forward. This week we discuss that while the economic data continues to be reasonably good, the market may have already priced in good outcomes and leaves little room for improvement.

Simon Hamilton, Portfolio Manager and Managing Director, cautions against leaning too much into the rapidly shifting "soft landing" narrative as well as the reversal of last year's defensive stock outperformance over growth. He suggests that investors should maintain proper portfolio balance rather than chasing the latest sentiment trends. He also offers some thoughts on historical relationships b...

This week we build the case for a soft landing in the economy, which may be looking more possible, but point out the reasons why that doesn't mean it's back to the races for the stock market.

This week, Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, discusses the difference between mean reversion and a change in trend and how we are not likely experiencing a sustainable resurgence in growth stocks, nor a new bull market. He does suggest that certain reversions such as the nascent recovery of Emerging Markets could have legs. He also looks at the compounding power of dividends...

Recent data has reinforced the case for a soft landing in the economy and the recent inflation and employment readings has made the term Goldilocks a cliché. On this week's podcast, we talk about what's led to the popularity of that term and really how much has the market discounted of the economy today.

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, notes the folly of forecasts and how humility is appropriate here in 2023. He looks back at the terrible market year that was, encourages listeners to not invest by looking in the rearview mirror, and offers a "laundry list" of potential outcomes and market happenings that he feels have a better than 50/50 chance of unfolding going forward.

After a quick look at how 2022 ended we talk this week about what to look for each month in 2023.

This week, we look at numerous reasons why both the economy and the markets are likely to worsen. However, in the spirit of the season, we also share some reasons that are present and could parachute us to a soft land. For 2023, we can dismiss the outlying scenarios but also we won't model for either extreme.  

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, discusses how, once again, the Fed dashed investors' hopes for a less hawkish policy stance and actually upped their rate hike forecast. He reviews the markets' reaction, how to think about stocks and bonds, and considers the historical precedent for two consecutive down years. He also discusses the folly of making and listening to market fo...

Given the backdrop of another fading rally off recent lows, Simon Hamilton, Managing Director & Portfolio Manager, wonders if investors might have become too optimistic. Market focus will likely shift from all Fed, all the time, to concern regarding the health of corporate earnings. He discusses how balance sheet quality will become increasingly important and how it is unlikely that the success of...

The Fed may be approaching a pivot in their monetary policy and we're looking at conditions that also call for a pivot in long term allocation goals in portfolios. On this week's show Chase Hinderstein, Portfolio Manager, talks about what has taken us to this point in the cycle and what that means for value opportunities and risk premiums in different asset classes, as we start to shift a bit betw...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director & Portfolio Manager, discusses how the strategies and investments that worked best a year ago are in most cases the worst faring today and the trend may continue for some time to come. He peaks into 2023 and offers a reasonable base case for the stock market. Simon also answers some common questions about the current state of the fixed-income markets and how inves...

This week was a wake up call to the euphoric dreams of last week and the recent rally. We believed that the rate of interest rate increases would slow and this period of tightening was near an end. We saw good inflation data and the market believed the future was bright. We saw the Russians pull out of Kherson and some believed that the war was entering a stage of moderating, maybe negotiating, ma...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director, discusses this week's better than expected inflation (CPI) reading as well as a likely mid-term election outcome different than what most pundits expected. He offers some of the investment implications. He also attempts to answer the question: is it better to invest in stocks or bonds at this point given higher yields and the potential for recession?

Lots of economic data and the Fed both raising interest rates and the expectations for where the ceiling may be brought with it a lot of market volatility. This week we breakdown what happened and what it means, as well as a couple of items that aren't under the Fed's control and may provide some relief. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as "The Dow" is an index representing...

Simon Hamilton, Managing Director, discusses the recent bifurcation in the market and how the "average" stock is doing better than the indexes. He looks at the poor performance of the traditional 60/40 portfolio this year and how returns could well be more attractive in years to come. He also reviews how investors often assume a direct correlation between recessions and further market losses but t...

Inflation is like cancer, and the treatment has terrible side effects.  On this week's podcast, we discuss inflation and the worsening housing market and warn against chasing rallies caused by surges in short selling. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market.

Simon discusses the history of The Wise Investor Group and the client benefits of the move to Raymond James. In light of it being the best performing sector in the S&P this year, Simon examines 8-10 facts/realties with respect to the energy sector (mostly in terms of supply-demand dynamics) to suggest that it could be a promising place to invest, even if prices are dragged down by short-term econo...

The market has experienced some sharp rallies recently, on the heels of worsening economic news, only to see the gains erased when positive signs come along. On this week's podcast we look at some of the recent economic news, how it points to a deepening recession, and why the market does better lately when it's bad news. Also, we're joined by Matias Rodlauer, Client Service Associate, who reviews...