The Trivium China Podcast

China’s economy has lost momentum after a surprisingly strong start to the year. But while many analysts are asking why Beijing isn’t doing more to stimulate growth, this week’s Trivium China Podcast explores a different question: why are policymakers deliberately choosing not to? Pod host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to examine why Beijing may be quiet...

China’s economy started 2026 with surprising momentum – but the latest monthly macro data underscores that many of the country’s underlying challenges remain firmly in place. On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Lead Macro Analyst Joe Peissel to unpack the latest economic data and what it reveals about the increasingly uneven nature of China’s growth story....

It’s been a busy few weeks for Chinese diplomacy, with Xi Jinping making a rare trip to North Korea while tensions between Beijing and Brussels continue to climb over trade, industrial policy, and the future of Europe’s manufacturing base. On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Geopolitical Research Joe Mazur and Head of Clean Energy and EV Research C...

China’s local governments have spent the past four years grappling with the fallout from the property market collapse. Land sales have dried up, fiscal pressures remain intense, and officials across the country are still searching for sustainable new sources of revenue. On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to discuss o...

This week on the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis Joe Mazur to unpack one of the most consequential – and potentially misunderstood – issues emerging from the recent Xi-Trump summit: Taiwan. While both Washington and Beijing have publicly insisted that little changed during the meeting, Joe argues that several comments from President Trum...

It’s been a consequential week for US-China relations, as Xi Jinping and Donald Trump finally held their long-awaited summit in Beijing amid ongoing trade tensions, export control battles, and the fallout from the Iran war. On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by special guest Jon Czin – the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and a fel...

The long-awaited Xi Jinping–Donald Trump meeting has finally happened – but what, exactly, came out of it? On the first part of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research Cory Combs to unpack the immediate takeaways from the leaders’ summit in Beijing. The two discuss: Why the meeting was heavy on symbolism but lig...

It’s been another consequential week for China’s economy and foreign policy – with Beijing deploying its blocking rules for the first time ever in response to new US sanctions tied to Iranian oil purchases. On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research Cory Combs to unpack what China’s latest lega...

What happens when a Chinese AI startup tries to sell itself to a major US tech company, but Beijing decides it doesn’t like the deal? In this week’s episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to unpack the latest in the Meta-Manus acquisition saga and what it reveals about China’s evolving approach to tech regulation and nati...

With the Xi-Trump meeting looming and the Iran situation changing every hour, how are China and the US trying to secure their respective interests? This week, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk and Head of Supply Chain Research Cory Combs break down key dynamics – from: The evolving impacts of the Iran war and China's responses China's latest supply chain and anti-foreign coercion po...

China's economy started the year off on the front foot – but fragilities remain just below the surface, and the war in Iran may put that early positive momentum to the test. To discuss the latest dynamics driving the economy, and the potential…erm…hiccups it may face in the coming months, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined this week by two seasoned economists: Beijing-based Chin...

There’s only one storyline that matters geopolitically right now, and that’s the ongoing war between the US and Israel and Iran. Now in its third week, the war increasingly looks likely to be a protracted engagement, and as the conflict grinds on, the implications – both political and economic – for the many countries not involved in the fighting will become clearer. China, of course, has a wide-r...

On this week’s edition of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is back with a gaggle of Trivium analysts to go deep on various aspects of the recently released 15th Five Year Plan (FYP). The group covers a broad range of issues including: Key macroeconomic, development, and economic security goals The plan for industrial upgrading – and key priorities in upstream, midstream, and downstream...

It’s been a big week in China, with the annual government meetings (aka the Two Sessions) kicking off to lay out key policy priorities for the year – and to drop a draft version of the 15th Five Year Plan (FYP). There’s a ton of policy to wade through in both the annual government work reports and the FYP – from macro, to tech, to healthcare, to bio-manufacturing, and more. On this week’s Trivium...

2026 has kicked off with a geopolitical bang – from US intervention in Venezuela to threats against Greenland to potential military action against Iran, not to mention the latest tariff turmoil following last week’s US Supreme Court ruling. All of this volatility – and what it might say about the role the US will play in the world going forward – can lead to some pretty lazy assumptions that China...

It's been a while between trips, but last week Trivium's Head of Markets Research, Dinny McMahon , was back in Beijing. In this podcast, he and Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk discuss Dinny's observations and takeaways from the trip. After dissecting the vibe on the street, the gents get into: Where there might be some potential for investment growth this year Why the only thing that...

US-China bilateral relations have, surprisingly, been an anchor of calm amidst a sea of geopolitical uncertainty in the opening innings of 2026. And increasingly, it looks like the seemingly fragile truce between the two countries will prove more resilient that it initially seemed – back when US President Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a trade war détente in November. To discuss the state of play...

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk speaks with our lead macro-econ analyst, Joe Peissel, to take a quick temperature check of China’s latest macro data. The two discuss: What the full-year 2025 data (released in mid-Jan) tells us about the state of play and the likely economic trajectory for 2026 How the constituent parts of the economy – consumption, investment, and exports –...

China’s financial regulators have started 2026 with a flurry of activity. On January 14, the securities regulator raised margin requirements on stock trading in a bid to cool investors’ exuberance. The following day the central bank expanded a bunch of its relending facilities, and cut the interest rate on all of its structural lending tools. Then on January 20, the finance ministry rolled out a b...

November economic data was a bit of a letdown, suggesting China’s economy is rapidly losing growth momentum. Fixed asset investment declined by double digits Industrial output grew at its slowest rate in 15 months Retail sales of consumer goods grew at the slowest rate in three years But things aren’t as bad as they seem. This week, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst J...

As the new year approaches, governments, corporations, and investors alike are asking: what will critical material supply chains look like in the year to come? In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, discuss where global supply chains and diversification efforts stand today – and how they are likely to shape up in 2026. St...

At the end of each year, China's top economic policymakers get together for the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) to discuss their goals for the year ahead. This year's CEWC wrapped up on December 11, and in this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ins-and-outs of the meeting's official readout. Warni...

In mid-2024, Beijing rebranded its overcapacity problems as “involution.” Does it matter? As the bard would say, a rose by any other name… And yet, over time it’s become clear that this was more than just a rebranding exercise. Along with the change in name came a subtle shift in how Beijing perceives its overcapacity problems – a shift that has important policy implications. In this podcast, Triv...

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, your loyal Trivium team digs into China’s key domestic and regional developments from the past few days. First, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss: The Party’s latest conference on law-based governance – and what it tells about how Xi Jinping views China’s legal and regulatory systems Xi’s motivations in refreshing and solidifying the var...

With the US and China having agreed to a détente over trade, now is a good time to take a step back from the day-to-day back-and-forth of measures and countermeasure, and look at the longer term implications of China’s new economic model for trade. In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, kick off by discussing China’s surprisingly bleak October...