The Trivium China Podcast

Confusion around what China has officially agreed to in terms of pausing its rare earths, and other critical mineral, export controls persists – even as we are a week out from Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s trade agreement in South Korea. Significant discrepancies remain between official statements from the White House and China’s Ministry of Commerce on the issue. Meanwhile, officials and commerci...

It was another monumental week on the China front. On Tuesday, the Party released its sprawling 15th Five Year Plan (FYP) Proposals – laying out the sheer scale of Xi Jinping’s policy ambitions over the next half-decade Then on Thursday, Xi and US President Donald Trump got together in South Korea – their first meeting in six years – and agreed to a year-long ceasefire in the trade war In this wee...

Alright folks, this one is a banger. In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined first by colleagues Dinny McMahon and Joe Peissel. The three discuss: The most recent China macro data Economic headwinds and tailwinds as we move into 2026 Their early read of the 4th Plenum – and Xi Jinping’s make or break moment with the upcoming Five-Year Plan Andrew is then joined by a very s...

It’s been a frenetic and exhausting couple of weeks on the US-China front. After tensions heightened again last week – in the wake of China’s major expansion of export controls – the two sides continued to jockey, both privately and publicly, over the past few days. At this point, it appears that both sides are willing to continue negotiating – but the current state of the relationship is very fra...

Policymakers in Beijing wasted no time getting back into the swing of things after the week-long October holiday. On Wednesday, officials at the Ministry of Commerce unveiled sweeping updates to China’s export control regime – with new controls on rare earths and lithium batteries in particular focus. The moves also further Beijing’s drive toward long-arm jurisdiction by applying some of the contr...

Tired of listening to the same old Trivium voices? Wishing for more variety in your podcast diet? Well, do we have a treat for you! In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, are joined by Gerard DiPippo, associate director at the RAND China Research Center and a senior researcher in RAND's D.C. office. Gerard is one of the sharpes...

Chinese policymakers are looking to diffuse AI into key industrial, commercial, and governance fields as deeply and quickly as possible. The overarching framework for their approach is captured in the AI+ plus initiative. Officials published the overarching policy architecture for AI+ in late August. And more granular AI+X plans (e.g. AI+Energy, AI+Transportation) are now starting to roll out. In...

For decades, China's economy was driven by debt-fueled construction of housing and infrastructure. But once the housing market collapsed in 2021, China needed to find a new growth model. The key parts of that new model are well known:  Industrial upgrading Aggressive export growth Technological innovation  What's less well understood is how these parts fit together, and how the new model...

China’s GDP growth has been unexpectedly strong this year. But paradoxically, tax revenue has been contracting. That’s not supposed to happen: Tax revenue typically falls during a recession, but not when the economy is expanding by more than 5% annually. In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Trivium’s Head of Markets Research, discuss the reasons behind China’s falling...

Xi Jinping’s growing diplomatic clout was on full display over the past week. Things kicked off in the Chinese port city of Tianjin, where Xi hosted the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The enduring image from that meeting will be a beaming Russian President Vladimir Putin, walking hand-in-hand with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi – just before the two shared a hearty l...

China's stock markets have been on a tear over the last few months, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index – which tracks the biggest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen – up 25% since its low point in February. Beijing has wanted the market to rally for quite some time – but this upsurge has come as something of a surprise.  China’s economic fundamentals aren’t really conducive to a market r...

China's export controls on rare earth elements have exposed major US supply chain vulnerabilities.   Now the US is scrambling to plug the holes – and China is working to maintain its leverage. The big question is: how far will each side go in these efforts? In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, ta k e stock of China...

The quest to understand Beijing's views on consumer spending continues.  The latest: On August 13, China's finance ministry (MoF) said it would bring down borrowing costs for service sector firms by providing them with rebates on their interest payments. Curiously, authorities framed the measure – which is clearly designed to increase investment – as being an effort to boost consumption....

When the Politburo met to talk about the economy at the end of July, the general tone was one of contentment.  Despite the disruption of the Trump tariffs, China's economy has outperformed expectations this year, led by truly remarkable export growth. In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the state of China's economy.  The ge...

China and the US are both rapidly refining their approaches to global AI development, through newly released AI actions plans. In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to discuss what’s in the latest plans. The two discuss: The Trump administration’s pivot on chip sales to China, and the new guidance on chips laid ou...

Is Beijing finally gearing up to address chronic oversupply – and resulting price wars – in its NEV and other cleantech sectors? Trey McArver joins Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk this week to discuss just that question. Specifically, they examine what may be the early signs of a major policy shift – meant to break through the structural causes that keep industries from consolidating and zo...

At the Lujiazui Financial forum in June, central bank (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng gave a speech that we believe redefined Beijing's attitude toward RMB internationalization. Since the policy was launched in 2009, RMB internationalization has been a struggle, with Beijing's commitment to maintaining capital controls making it difficult to claw market share from the dollar. But Pan'...

In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Ether Yin (Trivium’s head of policy research) and Joe Mazur (Trivium’s head of geopolitical research) – who all got together in Beijing.  The three discuss a variety of topics including: China’s improving consumer data The current vibes in Beijing, as tourists flock in The latest on US-China trade talks The latest on EU...

In the latest episode of the Trivium China podcast, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss this week’s phone call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump that appears to have gotten trade talks back on track, for now.  The two discuss: The developments and misperceptions from both sides that almost derailed the Geneva truce over the past three weeks What we know about the Xi-Trump ca...

On this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by his colleagues Kendra Schaefer (Trivium’s head of tech policy) and Ether Yin (Trivium’s head of policy research) to talk through the latest tech controls from the US on China – and China’s likely reaction. The three discuss: The Trump administration’s move to restrict sales of electronic design automation (EDA) software to China T...

In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s head of critical mineral and supply chain research, Cory Combs, to address the mounting confusion over whether and how China will ease off on its rare earth export curbs.  The gents discuss: The implications behind China’s recent approval of a handful of rare earth magnet export licenses Whether China would consider remo...

In this week’s pod, Trivium co-founders Andrew Polk, Trey McArver, and Ether Yin all sat down together in DC to discuss the recent de-escalation in the US-China trade war. They guys also drilled down on China’s move to grant licenses for critical mineral exports to the US, as part of the temporary trade reprieve. And finally, the gents discussed where Beijing was really focused this week – deepeni...

It’s been a long time coming, but Beijing is finally ramping up economic support to counter the fallout from tariffs. In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the wave of monetary policy measures rolled out by financial regulators on Wednesday. The gents get into the nitty gritty of China’s financial system – with forays into PBoC...

In this week’s podcast, Trivium co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver examine Beijing’s latest thinking on trade tensions with the US – as both sides settle in for a sustained confrontation. The two discuss: Whether Beijing has Trump’s number The shifting narrative on China’s ability to sustain hostilities Conflicting reports as to whether China and the US are actively negotiating China’s patie...

In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined again by Cory Combs, Trivium’s head of supply chain research, to unpack the latest US-China trade war twists. The two discuss: Friday’s pause in the tariff escalation China’s pointed efforts to signal it won’t escalate further Whether the pause has staying power Why a painful stalemate is still far better than some of the alternative...