The Rate Guy

On this episode of The Rate Guy we're breaking down the Core PCE numbers and JMo's wager tracker—are we heading to the Caribbean or not? Plus, we explore why the Fed might be shifting its focus from inflation to jobs, the implications of recent job reports, and what Friday's labor data could mean for future rate cuts. Join us as we take a closer look at the economic balancing act the Fed is faced...

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss all things inflation, the cracks that Jay$ (Jerome Powell) may be paying closing attention to and the probability of rate cuts and why JP thinks that could be wrong. If you haven't already, subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter to see visuals that we reference in the podcast, as well as any breaking news we tackle mid-week. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the different AI models, their strengths/weaknesses and origins that you might not know. We then dive into interest rate talk, the small exhale the market experienced last week, odds of a rate cut this year, info around the bid to cover ratio ( linked article referenced ) and we cap it off with an AI recording of the rap battle below!    Hedge Advisor...

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the most overlooked takeaways from the Fed meeting, QT tapering, how the 10T is affected and what the jobs report is telling us. To check out the graphs referenced read the Pensford Newsletter here .

Happy 15 years to Pensford! On this episode of The Rate Guy we take a walk down memory lane with JP. Hearing about the times he thought Pensford was going under, where the name comes from, our competitors and most importantly our team. If you want to skip the story and get straight to the FOMC meeting, inflation and jobs talk, fast forward to the 32 minute mark. Thanks to everyone for your support...

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss why we should not be freaking out over inflation, why JP still things the Fed is cutting, how transportation costs have affected Supercore and which direction wage growth is trending.  Check out the Pensford Newsletter for graphs/links referenced. And for those interested in checking out JP's Eagles Spite Site. Here you go! https://howiecantdraft.com/

On this episode of The Rate Guy , we dive into the latest economic data releases and what they reveal about the current state of inflation and monetary policy. We'll break down the recent CPI and PPI figures, discuss what move Powell may regret, what the Fed might do from here, and analyze the potential impact.  For those that want to check out more about SF Fed official Adam Shapiro's graph illus...

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we tackle the unexpected fallout from last week's April Fools' joke podcast/newsletter that sent rates soaring. IT WAS A JOKE, PEOPLE!  We'll dissect recent labor market reports, if  Bloomberg  Chief U.S. Economist  Anna Wong could be right about the high end of unemployment, the impact of fiscal stimulus, and what the Beveridge Curve tells us about job openings ve...

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP recognizes the errors of his ways and faces all of the things he's been looking at totally wrong.  Want to read as well? Check out his Pensford Newsletter .

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we're tackling the latest on the Fed, the surprising bank funding stats, and what it all means for the economy. We'll break down this week's keyand what they signal for future rate cuts. Plus, we're setting the scene for our big quarterly webinar and the Fed meeting. Tune in for a clear-ish take on where we're at and where we might be heading. Weekly Pensford Newsl...

For this nerdy episode of The Rate Guy podcast you can thank Nathan from Dallas for inspiring JP to fall down a jobs rabbit hole! We'll talk BLS, BEA, birth/death adjustment and dissect the overstated strength of the current job market challenging the "red hot" labor market narrative. We will also touch on what you may be overlooking when it comes to inflation. (hint, it's something we haven't see...

On this episode of the Rate Guy we discuss the crazy email sent out to super users by the BLS, what we saw from the 10T last week and of course, much to J Mo's joy, inflation. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy you'll get some knowledge dropped on you about leap year date quirk and how it creates data challenges, a fun fact about Warren Buffet, and what everyone is keeping their eye on...inflation.  We discuss how January data is always hot and suggest pumping the breaks on the sky is falling outlook until we see more data.  To subscribe to JP's weekly Pensford newsletter,...

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the inflation report from last week and what it means for Fed monetary policy and if inflation is accelerating. We also touch on how the latest data influenced the interest rate universe. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the Fed's "Lower But Slower" strategy amid declining inflation and mixed signals from Fed officials on rate cuts. We discuss the drop in Core PCE inflation to 2.9% and its impact on anticipated rate reductions, contrasting with market predictions. Tune in as we navigate the cautious monetary policy landscape, analyze financial indicators, and assess the...

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP shares an experience from his first day on the Wachovia trading floor, highlighting the stress of betting $5 when you have $2 in your pocket. We discuss the impact of large Treasury issuances and the Fed's balance sheet reduction, the Treasury's new buyback program, and the effects of the Term Funding Program's conclusion on bank liquidity and Treasury investmen...

On this episode of The Rate Guy we draw an interesting parallel between the challenges of parenting and the Federal Reserve's decision to end the Bank Term Funding Program. We analyze the latest inflation data, discuss what to expect at this week's FOMC meeting and the rationale behind what the Fed might do next.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP stays on brand taking jabs at the NFL's latest dramas, with a special nod to the Cowboys' decisions that bring him so much joy. We analyze the latest on treasury rates, Fed-speak, and what consumer sentiment reports reveal about inflation expectations. We also take a look at potential inflation scenarios and what they may mean for our economy.

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the odds of the Fed cutting in March, take a closer look at the 10 Year Treasury's ups and downs, and break down how the Bank Term Funding Program might play out. 

Happy 2024! On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about last week's jobs reports and the impact that is going to have on Fed policy this year, a few fun facts around jobs reports, like how many we need to add each month to keep pace with population growth and we explain a possible reason for the consistent monthly revisions that we're seeing.   

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP lists his lead pipe locks for 2024...spoiler alert, there's no such thing as a soft landing and we will have a recession. We also take a look back at his lead pipe lock predictions for 2023 and grade him on how those panned out. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk inflation, unemployment, the 10 Year Treasury and if the Fed has already overdone it. This Thursday we have our Q4 Interest Rate Webinar. Register Here -> https://www.pensford.com/q4-pensford-webinar-2023 Graph referenced

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss some alarming data about consumer behavior, inflation expectations, what to look for in this week's inflation data and possible good news for interest rate caps. 

This episode of The Rate Guy Podcast is titled, "No, China is Not Dumping Treasurys". We had a better title, but Harbaugh stole it. (You know JP can't resist making some digs) This week we discuss the latest headlines about China selling Treasurys. The reasons they would sell, why they wouldn't sell and we get an expert's take on what the global data REALLY looks like. Thanks Brad!  This is graph...

On this week's Rate Guy podcast, we're zoning in on one of the biggest questions we got from ULI: what will rate cuts look like in 2024. We'll unpack the three potential paths the Fed might take and the reasoning behind each. Plus, we're taking a closer look at that less-than-stellar jobs report to see what it really means. And expect a common thread to emerge from the flurry of Fed speeches lined...