The Rate Guy

On this episode of The Rate Guy you get a story of JP wrestling with a bat (yes a real live bat), his thoughts on the market's frustration with Warsh and what the real unemployment rate is and why. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk inflation, GDP, Jobs and what's really killing caps right now. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we recap today's FOMC meeting and cover any happenings, surprise statements and of course Warsh's tie color.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about last week's jobs number, Warsh's first ever Fed meeting, what position are traders pouring into at a historic level and how a resolution in Iran affect the 10T. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we take a trip down memory lane. Revisiting similar economic times in history to build a framework for what the Fed might do this year. We take a look at GDP, Money Supply, Inflation, Oil...all of the key touchpoints and which of those we should be payint the most attention to. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what the Market is laser focused on right now and what needs to happen to bring relief to the 10T.

We're back baby and we're excited about it....well JP's not, but he's got no choice. Today we talk about inflation, Jobs, the new Fed chair, 10T, Caps, Raising interest rates....all of the things! Thanks for your patience with us during our haitus, we break down why during the first 4 minutes. See you next week!  

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the extreme volatility of last week, what it means for rate caps, the 10T and what to be on the look out from the Fed in the upcoming weeks. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the economic impact of the war in Iran, a weak jobs report, and what it means for oil, inflation, and the timing of the next rate cut. The cushion the economy has relied on for the past few years may be gone, and the margin for error is getting much smaller.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP draws some parallels between the winter olympics and happenings in the US Market. Gold, Silver, Bronze and Stoat are awarded.  Big congrats to USA Men's and Women's Hockey Teams who took home Gold this Winter Olympics! Link to Newsletter to see graphs referenced . 

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the SaaSpocalypse , 3 key take aways from the Jobs Report, how (& why) we are in a disinflationary environment right now and how all of that will determine if the Fed cuts this year. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP breaks down the 3 things you absolutely need to know about Kevin Warsh being nominated as the new Fed Chair and can Thom Tillis block his nomination like he said he will. 

Miss the Fed meeting today? We've got you!  We translate all the Fed-speak and highlight our favorite moments and key takeaways - like what advice J Powell has for the next Fed Chair. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what some of you may have forgotten...the Fed meeting is this week! We cover the Supreme Court's take on the Lisa Cook case, 10T behaviours, China "dumping" Treasurys and info about caps that our floating rate borrowers might be interested in.  Here is the link for the Pensford Cap Pricer that we discussed.  See you all Wednesday night for the FOMC recap!

We know this is a little early to call, but this will be the most important episode of the year. So if you listen to nothing else, listen to this one. Shocking news came out late Sunday night. This has literally never happened since the existence of the Federal Reserve. The Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to Jero...

On this special episode of The Rate Guy, we examine today's Fed meeting, the dissents, the jobs realization, J Powell's press conference and what it all means for current market conditions and in 2026. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP draws a parallel between the Penn State and Fed search for their next leader. Then we jump into what to expect at this week's meeting and a quick look ahead to next year's rate expectations. We'll be back Wednesday for a recap of the Fed meeting.  For those that are curious...here's the calendar reminder screenshot. (if I could insert a facepalm emoji here I wou...

On this episdoe of The Rate Guy, in the spirit of Thanksgiving, JP runs through a variety of things he's thankful for with his mix of sincerity and sarcasm that we all know and love.  Check out the fancy Private Social Club that we talk about and visited in Atlanta, The Perlant,  here . If you want to see Philly Elementary kids go off on Dallas player themed heavy bags (yeah, you read that right)...

On this episode of The Rate Guy , we talk about JP's love of all things Texas (well, maybe not the lobster mac & cheese), dig into the latest private-sector jobs data, and break down where we see interest rates heading in 2026 — plus why the impact on the 10T looks completely binary.

On this special edition episode of The Rate Guy we recap today's Fed meeting and analyze Powell's surprising remarks and what to be on the look out for in the week ahead.  See you on 11/10! Here is the link to JP's recap in the Pensford Newsletter. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the NBA betting scandal because apparently, Chauncey Billups was the big draw. Really? Plus, why Terry Rozier became the most bet-on player in America and what the NBA's "thorough investigation"  didn't  find. Then we pivot to the Fed: a 25bp cut is coming, but what happens next? We walk through four possible rate paths for 2026, from holding steady to...

On this epidode of The Rate Guy we're breaking down this Thursday's CPI release — why the market will probably react even though it's full of noise, what could drive the 10-year Treasury to 3.62%, and the one signal that could tell us the Fed won't cut rates at the next meeting.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we answer the question we've gotten a lot this week..."If the Federal government is still shut down on Oct. 29, will the Fed meet and make a decision about rates?" We answer that and many more about how Fed cuts will effect the 10 year treasury and why the US is still the world's mattress. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we explore the private data sources around the job market and what they might mean in the absence of official government statistics. We also talk about projected rate cuts and when they will likely happen.  For those of you that want to read along with the stats here is the link to the Pensford Newsletter.  And to see what JP's been up to in his spare time check out...