The Morning Market Briefing

Barry Pencek was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania with a heart for the skies. At any early age, he was convinced that being a pilot was the path for his life, and after graduating Cumberland College, he began his military career as a pilot. He's a twice-published author, discussing both investing and his military career. Ben sits down to discuss some of Barry's most insightful and interesting storie...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss a big week ahead as big earnings reports and a Bank of Japan policy meeting start a week of info despite the upcoming holidays. The US government announces a plan to begin buying back oil to refill the SPR. LHX plans to buy Aeroject Rocketdyne - this coming after Lockheed attempted to buy AR, but they were denied due to anti-trust issues. For information on how to join...

Ben discusses the release of economic data in both America and China. China continues to have poor economic numbers as their covid lockdowns were highly difficult for industries and manufacturing based on China. In the US, rate hikes are expected to continue, and inflation appears to continue to rear its head. The ECB and BOE continue rate hikes in Europe in an effort to fight inflation as well. F...

Tom and Ben discuss the Fed's decisions on how to handle inflation and how the market has responded this year. Bank of Japan to consider a review next year in order to address their economy and the state of the Yen. European inflation seems to be moving in the right direction, and Delta updates their guidance to reflect an improving situation. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live eac...

Ben, Andrew, and Tom discuss their view of the better than expected CPI data, the response to this data by the bond and equity markets, the takeaways from the global fund manager survey and the small business optimism survey, earnings data from Oracle, Thoma Bravo’s acquisition of Coupa, and some commentary on the FTX circus. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30...

Ben and Tom discuss Amgen’s talks to buy Horizon Therapeutics in a deal with north of $20 billion. Developments in Exergonic nuclear fusion show signs of being the best possible future for clean energy, but there is still a long road ahead in perfecting the process. CPI numbers release later this week, so there will be a push in the market one way or the other for sure. For information on how to j...

Andrew, Tom, and Ben discuss China’s plan to sell $108 billion in special sovereign bonds to stimulation their struggling economy. The FTC sues Microsoft in order to block their acquisition of Activision. Costco has been a star in some regard during the rocky economic climate of the year, and they discuss the implications of their earnings reports to close out the year. For information on how to j...

Tom and Ben discuss Walmart CEO Doug McMillon’s comments on the average consumer at an investor conference – penny pinching up, higher-income individuals are shopping at bargain stores, inflation is killing grocery items. ECB staff are threatening to strike in light of pay increases well below inflation. Oil collapse continues. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:3...

Tom and Andrew discuss the GA Senate race results, as Warnock won a tightly contested runoff. Meta faces even more headwind as privacy and media regulations create further potential issues for them. A new defense budget proposal would increase the national security budget to $858b, which comes in above expectations. News from Lowe's and Southwest seem relatively positive considering the current po...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the issues facing commercial property funds are seeing spikes in redemption requests to the extent that they are limiting withdrawals from the funds. Economic data regarding mortgage applications, nonfarm labor, and jobless claims are set to come later today. Taiwan Semiconductors see an extra investment come in to construct a second production facility. For informatio...

Tom and Ben discuss the Fed's plans for their 12/14 meeting with expectations to see a 50bp rate hike. Shanghai reopens after the authorities ease back on the Covid restrictions again. OPEC+ makes no change to oil production, as was expected. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefings Please see disc...

Ben and Tom discuss the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, jobs data and an acceleration in wage growth, the status on the railroad strike, how today’s news impacts inflation, and a look ahead to the CPI report in a week and a half. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefings Please see disclosures: https://www....

Andrew, Tom, and Ben dive into the comments from Jay Powell, the implications of those comments, and our view of their validity. They also discuss Biden’s plans to increase biofuel requirements for oil refiners, earnings news from Costco, Sales Force, Snowflake, and Okta, as well as some positive news on Eli Lilly’s Alzheimer’s drug. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning...

Ben, Andrew, and Tom discuss the easing (but still elevated) Eurozone inflation data, the upcoming meeting for OPEC+ and the expectation that they keep production steady, Jay Powell’s upcoming speech regarding the economic outlook and labor markets, the increase in government backed mortgage loan limits, strong holiday spending data, and tough earnings reports out of a number of SAAS companies as...

Tom and Ben discuss China's COVID protocol again, as it continues to have an impact on the markets due to the slowing of production in many areas within the country. Currently the oil supply seems to be on the rebound somewhat around the world. Unions around the US seem to be unhappy, despite the Biden administration's focus on that as a running platform, with a railroad strike inevitable soon. Fo...

Ben, Tom, and Andrew discuss the protests in China as their COVID restrictions have caused severe tensions with civilians. The FTC filed an anti-monopoly lawsuit regarding Microsoft's purchase of Activision. Black Friday sales show numbers of varying sorts, but overall, the reality was much higher than expectations. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit...

Tom and Andrew discuss Elon's Twitter employment agreement, which required employees to commit to being all-in if they want to continue working for Twitter next Monday. Amazon reports that they will extend their layoffs into next year, plans to lay off near 10,000 employees overall. Carvana is continuing to find themselves in hot water, as it appears they are continually unable to service their de...

Andrew takes on the morning call alone this morning. He discusses Christine Lagarde's upcoming address that will discuss the continued acceleration of CPI in the European Union. Jim Bullard has comments coming today regarding the effectiveness of the FED's rate hikes on inflation. Considerable time was spent discussing the positive retail earnings reports (despite Target missing the mark), as well...

Tom and Harrison discuss the Russian-made missle hitting Poland, killing two - speculation is that the missle was actually fired from Ukraine towards Russia, as they also use Russian-made missles. UK inflation accelerates again, and Esther George believes slowing inflation would require sending the economy into recession. Trump announced his 2024 run for president, and the Senate passes a vote to...

Ben, Tom, and Andrew discuss PPI numbers as they reflect a positive move regarding inflation and the future of the economy. Big retail earnings released from Q3 - HD down 2.6% and WMT flat. Bank of America Fund Manager Survey reveals that managers are ultra bearish with cash level at their highest level since the "dot-com" bubble. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at...

Tom and Ben brave the onset of winter weather to discuss an economy and consumer that may be overreaching to “one data point” on inflation and the implications for interest rates, OPEC+ dropping its demand outlook by 520k bpd, and a big week ahead including a PPI print as well as earnings out of HD, CSCO, NVDA, and TGT. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, v...

Tom and Ben discuss yesterday’s strong market rally (S&P up nearly 6%), the movement of oil prices and the factors influencing those changes, Amazon’s cost cutting, Elon Musk addressing Twitter employees, and updates to the Student Loan Forgiveness outlook. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefings...

Tom and Ben discuss CPI reportings as the economy sees a favorable number for inflation. Stocks soared as investors seem to have very positive sentiment for the CPI reports and the state of inflation. Biden confirms another presidential campaign for 2024. Earnings reports from some large companies set to come next week. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, v...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss election results, as the "red wave" was clearly a mis-forecast episode for the 2022 mid-terms. With a higher than anticipated Democractic win in the Senate, policy change could have an easier road ahead with a Dem administration and Senate. Meta continues to make news negatively as they are planning to lay of 11,000 works (13% of their total) in the coming weeks. For i...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss mid-term elections that are of particular interest to them. They go on to discuss the implications of a few swing state Senatorial votes. Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia were topics of discussion considering how impactful those states could be for policy changes in the US moving forward. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30...