The Morning Market Briefing

The guys discuss an exceptionally strong 10-year auction yesterday in the bond market. The auction saw a high level of international demand and a fairly low domestic participation. Disney earnings showed a miss on subscriber count but a beat on profit, sending the stock upwards 7% before market open today. Affirm continues to get punished in this market as their stock fell another 20% with terribl...

The guys discuss Powell's comments on the "significant period of time" required to bring down inflation. State of the Union comments include noting a late credit card fee for late credit cards, insulin price caps, and no "resort fees" at hotels. AI wars continue between Microsoft and Google. Chipotle earnings show that people are moving away from their business, despite their confidence on high in...

Amanda Riedling was born and raised in Cobb County, Georgia. She attended the University of Georgia for both her undergrad, in Finance, and law school, where she graduated cum laude in 2011. She's an owner and partner at Georgia Wills, Trusts, and Probate Firm, LLC, located in Marietta, GA, where she works across several specialties. From teaching probate and estate planning at Chatahoochee Tech t...

The guys discuss the FED's comments regarding the continued fight on inflation, with discussions focused around continuing the same path or potentially easing into a hopeful "soft landing." CVS is nearing a deal to acquire Oak Street (Primary Care Provider) for $10.5 billion. Meta revamps their stance and pursuit of the metaverse, focusing on 13-17 year old users with hopes to hit 1 million users...

The guys discuss the slide of the YEN as the Bank of Japan begins their transition from Kuroda to Masayoshi Amamiya. Several large deals are not going through as cash proves to be king during this market, stock options are not highly incentivized by purchasers. The WSJ expects more restaurant IPOs as travel and leisure are making their combacks. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live e...

The guys discuss the January jobs report, with a surprising number of jobs coming in that exceeded expectations. They spent considerable time discussing earnings reports from a few major companies in the US economy, including Apple, Google, Amazon, Starbucks, and Ford. A major readthrough on Starbucks includes their continued push in the Chinese market that has shown considerable downside as they...

The guys discuss the data and central bank recaps. The FED appears to be hawkish regarding ongoing increases, but there was acknowledgment of a need for substantially more evidence. Bank of England continues to tighten at 50bps at a time towards the target 4%. Overall sentiment is that the FED is certainly less hawkish than they have been in quite some time, but it's much too early to claim they h...

The guys discuss the Chinese Lunar New Year, which essentially signals 7 days off in China. During the week off, the market could be affected as a result of the break. Samsung continues to mull a decision on cutting chip production, but then again, perhaps they will not. Central World Banks continue to fight inflation with discussion on whether or not to slow agression or remain vigilant on the fi...

The guys discuss Juul exploring a sale or partnership with one of the big tobacco companies in the space. UK Migration Projection appears to be raising GDP. The White House Admin is sending 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine in support of the war. Lots of positives from earnings reports, but INTC and LUV are showing incredibly poor numbers at the moment. For information on how to join the Zoom calls li...

The guys discuss Q4 GDP as numbers are soon to be released. CVX announces $75b stock buyback which would account for nearly 25% of all outstanding stock. Earnings wrap-up shows deflationary forces starting to roost. Earnings also show semiconductor softness, enterprise software holding up, bumbling management, and black boxes requiring pure faith. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live...

The guys discuss the possibility of inflation coming down even faster than the FED experts expect. Models show that a variety of factors could contribute to inflation moving in a variety of manners. Earnings from MSFT, COF, and ASML were just slightly down (better than expected), and AT&T and GD showed earnings up in spite of the current market. For information on how to join the Zoom calls li...

The guys discuss the DOJ's apparent positioning as they are poised to sue Google over digital advertising market dominance. Amazon continues its pursuit of becoming a dominant player in the healthcare sector, offering a subscription drug delivery service. Labor market shows that layoffs are continuing to ramp up across the economy currently. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each...

The guys discuss Timiraos' comments on the slowing of the fight on interest rates. The main questions surrounding the interview are concerned with not slowing the attack in order to quickly and effectively deal with inflation in its totality. Elliott Management takes a large stake in Salesforce, causing a nice bump in the stock price upon announcement. Both Goldman and Abbott are being investigate...

The guys discuss the debt ceiling as Janet Yellen stated that the Treasury is taking "extraordinary measures" to make sure bondholders are being paid their interest payemnts on bonds being held. Larry Summers claims that the economy is headed towards a 1970s like crisis if central banks relent on rates before continued work on inflation. Netflix co-CEO Reed Hastings steps down, and Greg Peters (CO...

The guys discuss Jim Bullard's talk claiming the markets are down. His comments focus on stating that the FED needs to keep their foot on the gas and work towards a soft landing. DFS reports that headlines are good, but credit quality may be deteriorating. PG reports a -2.3% on earnings results, and BofA reports people want to spend money with higher income individuals carrying the economy current...

The guys discuss the economic data update with retail sales numbesr and PPI being reported. Redfin's report on the housing market shows that the number of listings is similar to 2021, far below 2022, but that the average time on the market for a house is significantly longer. High mortgage rates continue to freeze out many buyers in this market. United Airlines had a very strong quarter - beating...

The guys continue their discussions on the full CPI print as estimates were all very close to actual print numbers, and it appears the market pricing will lead to a 25bps rate hike at the FED meeting. Bank earnings reports from big banks like JPM, BAC, WFC, BLK, and C all show promising numbers, with virtually all beating expectations on revenue. Tesla cuts prices on all cars by nearly %15 on aver...

The guys discuss the release of CPI numbers, reporting on Q4 of 2022. KB Hoimes provides an update on the state of the US housing market, showing some areas of promise as well as very high numbers of cancellations in new construction. Disney makes moves by appointing Makr Parker as chairman, formerly COE at Nike for 40 years. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30...

The guys discuss Jay Powell's remarks on relief for the market in the new year. European economic issues continue to "thaw" which brings relief to the US markets as well. Apple announces a plan to start using only their own chips in products beginning in 2025, and Wells Fargo intend to retrench from the mortgage business. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST,...

The guys discuss Adobe CEO Shantanu Naraynaen's interview with the WSJ discussing the economic outlook for 2023. Macy's lowers guidance 5% for FQ4. Eurozone estimates for unemployment were accurate as the numbers came in right in line with those estimates at 6.5%, and numbers in the overall economy continue to fluctuate with uncertain market sentiment. For information on how to join the Zoom calls...

Ben, Tom, Andrew, and Jason discuss the state of the economy as 2022 has come to a close and 2023 is beginning. With a tumultuous year behind us, the forecast for the upcoming year seems uncertain, but Narwhal discusses our approach to the potential ahead for us. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-brie...

Ben, Tom, and Andrew discuss the NFP report, the Eurozone CPI print, and Samsung's earnings report. Europe reports a lower than expected CPI, however, core prices have accelerated. Samsung earnings fell almost 70% as the company will need to lower production at some point, likely in the near future to cut losses. Overall in the economy, energy is falling, rates are falling, and stocks are falling...

Tom and Ben discuss the state of the jobs market. Amazon to lay off a considerable number of employees in the coming months, and ISM and ADP employment numbers are set to be released later today. Fed minutes reflect a continued focus on defeating inflation with sentiment being that further tightening will be required. Western Digital is revisiting the idea of consolidation of Kioxia, but time will...

Ben, Tom, and Andrew discuss Apple losing its $2 trillion status as a company, reminiscent of the fall GE had from its once plateau. Salesforce expects to cut their workforce by 10% in order to maintain a level of profitability. European inflation continues to decelerate, and mortgage rates stay high with adjustable mortgages being essentially untouched by home buyers. For information on how to jo...

Tom and Ben discuss Tesla missing their Q4 delivery estimates and Musk's potential resignation from Twitter, along with its impact on Tesla as a whole. Southwest Airlines continues to struggle, and only time will tell whether they will continue as a discount airline or need to be bought out by a larger entity. Bond buying is back and stocks appear to be set at a higher opening coming ahead. For in...