The Morning Market Briefing

Thomas and Tom discuss former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke joining Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust to advise on white-collar job displacement and AI bubble risks, Israel sharing intelligence with the US about a fresh Iranian plot to assassinate President Trump as ceasefire clashes threaten a mid-August permanent peace deal, OpenAI's number-two executive Fidji Simo stepping back to a part-time adviso...

Andrew, Thomas, and Tom discuss the sharp Iran escalation with reports of a cruise missile impact on a nuclear power plant and missiles sent to Jordan following US strikes on 90 Iranian military targets, Russia's diesel export ban through July 31 sending US diesel up over 13% and London wholesale futures up 14% after Ukrainian drone strikes triggered Russia's worst fuel crisis since the Soviet col...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump declaring the Iran MOU effectively over after calling Iranian leaders "evil sick people" and "cancer," the US retaliation "20 to 1" on Iranian cargo strikes, oil rising back to the mid-$70s and the 10-year climbing to 4.57% ahead of today's auction, Trump's additional broadsides at Spain, Greenland, and NATO, the semiconductor sell-off as investors focus on AI's...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the ISM Services print showing broader strength with much of the employment gain tied to World Cup-related hiring, Samsung's 10% drop and the KOSPI hitting a circuit breaker despite 150% growth as memory chip volatility returns, Chris Waller's nuanced defense of forward guidance as "more art than science," Rivian's $1.5 billion stock sale of 75 million shares, and Toyo...

Andrew and Tom discuss memory chips ripping again with ASML and LRCX up 5% on the SK Hynix listing, Broadcom's new multi-year custom ASIC deal with Apple through 2031, Solstice's $14.5 billion cash-and-stock acquisition of Element Solutions with Goldman advising, and Mario Draghi's proposal to restructure the EU into smaller blocs to unlock growth. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Frida...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the ISM Manufacturing report showing improving new orders and a shift toward hiring while prices moderate, alongside commentary highlighting Middle East pressure on CapEx and stabilizing supply chains, OpenAI's proposal to give the US government a 5% equity stake in the company as part of a broader industry arrangement potentially including Anthropic, Google, and Meta,...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss today's ADP jobs print with a 120K estimate, yesterday's JOLTS surprise beat at 7.594 million that seems suspiciously convenient against a low bar, Kevin Warsh's panel appearance alongside Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, and Tiff Macklem in his first global central bank sit-down, and Constellation Brands' earnings beat with EPS at $3.79, 39% operating margins, and 21...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the Supreme Court ruling that Fed Governor Lisa Cook can stay in her job for now with Chief Justice Roberts defending central bank independence while leaving the door open to a for-cause removal, the divergent Wall Street outlooks with Citi and BofA both calling a market top and projecting roughly 10% downside on stretched positioning and deteriorating momentum, and Ke...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Comcast's 20% surge on the announced spinoff of NBCUniversal and Sky from its cable business, Korea's plan to orchestrate $880 billion in AI capacity spending by 2029 with Samsung and SK Group leading $570 billion of chip investment, Apple lobbying the Trump administration for clearance to buy memory chips from blacklisted CXMT as the memory squeeze pushes hyperscalers...

Ben and Tom discuss OpenAI delaying its $1 trillion IPO to 2027 as bankers cite tech volatility and the post-SpaceX retail enthusiasm hangover, the resulting sell-off in AI infrastructure names with Softbank down 12% and Micron, NVDA, AVGO, and SNDK all lower, Apple and Microsoft's 15-20% price hikes on iPads, Macs, and Xbox tied to memory chip prices and the likelihood that big tech vertically in...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Micron's blowout quarter with revenue up 346% to $41.5 billion, 84.9% gross margin, and DRAM/NAND supply now constrained through 2027, the implications of doubling CapEx to $40-50 billion in FY27, Trump's $88 billion supplemental spending request for the Iran war, farmer aid, and Ebola, the canceled signing of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, escalating Senate Rep...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss oil's drop toward the $60s with WTI at $71.93 and Brent at $75.70 while the 10-year stubbornly holds at 4.48%, Trump directing the DOJ to investigate gasoline prices, Bessent's confidence that inflation is heading back to target, the supply/demand for dollars thesis amid massive cash raises from Google, SpaceX, ByteDance, and SK Hynix's planned $29 billion US listing o...

Ben and Tom discuss the return of AI volatility with Korea's stock market crashing 10% and triggering a 20-minute trading halt on forced ETF liquidations, SK Hynix and Samsung both down more than 20%, Oracle disclosing 21,000 job cuts over the past year as workforce shrank from 162K to 141K, the Ramp AI Index showing accelerating spend per employee but a flattening adoption curve, Google breaking...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation paving the way for socialist Andy Burnham as the favorite to succeed him in the country's 5th PM change in 4 years, the post-deal whiplash with Iran briefly re-closing the Strait after Israel-Lebanon skirmishes before reporting "major progress" in overnight talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, the muted market reaction with...

Andrew and Ben discuss Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting ending forward guidance and launching task forces on communication and data quality, the massive curve flattener with the 2-year jumping 17bps and the 30-year dropping 6bps, restored inflation credibility through lower TIPS breakevens, the media pushback led by Nick Timiraos, Trump's pivot into midterm "it's the economy" mode after signing the...

Andrew and Ben discuss Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as Chair with key questions on how hawkish he'll be, how he describes working with Powell, and whether he'll discuss Fed reform, today's retail sales print and yesterday's strong 20-year auction, UK inflation surprising to the downside at 2.8%, and the UAE's longer-term plan to cut dependency on the Strait of Hormuz to zero through Gulf of Oma...

Andrew and Ben discuss the BOJ hiking rates 25bps to 1% without Governor Ueda and signaling more hikes ahead despite a 250% debt/GDP ratio, the European Parliament ratifying the US-EU trade deal 440-151 with 15% tariffs on most EU goods and preferential access for US farm produce, the Huntsman-Olin merger creating OlinHuntsman with $400 million in synergies, and growing skepticism around the Iran...

Ben and Tom discuss the Iran-US agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with the blockade lifted immediately, $25 billion in phased sanction relief, a permanent end to hostilities including Lebanon, and an expected Friday signing in Geneva, the market reaction with oil dropping 5.6% to $80, the Nasdaq up 2.2%, and gold rising 3%, and the start of Warsh Week with the new Fed Chair pushing to scrap...

Tom and Thomas discuss SpaceX's IPO trading kicking off around midday with crypto markets implying a $2.3 trillion valuation 30-50% above the IPO price, the heavy skepticism that SPCX can hold that level, the Trump administration's power emergency declaration in the southeastern US allowing plants to exceed pollution limits during dangerous heat, and the framework of the Iran deal including a 30-d...

Ben and Tom discuss Oracle's 8% drop on a $40 billion capital raise plan and CapEx ballooning to $90-95 billion against just 6% EPS growth, the ECB hiking rates for the first time since 2023 to 2.25% into a sagging expansion, today's PPI print and 30-year auction, Rick Rieder's case for Fed cuts and fixed-income opportunities, OpenAI weighing drastic token price cuts to fend off Anthropic, and why...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump's Truth Social post declaring Iran's military "completely defeated" and the deal effectively dead, today's CPI print with consensus at +4.2% headline, the BOJ rate hike path complicated by Governor Ueda's hospitalization, Super Micro's $7 billion dilutive stock offering to fund $39 billion in backlog orders, the building AI supply overhang from OpenAI's S-1, Goog...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss China's $295 billion AI infrastructure plan that hands 80% of the buildout to Huawei and squeezes out Nvidia and AMD, Taiwan's tightening AI chip export controls, Korea's 8% rebound after yesterday's circuit breaker, OpenAI's S-1 filing as it races Anthropic to be the first AI lab to go public, the finalized $36 billion Apollo-Blackstone-Google-Anthropic-Broadcom TPU f...

Andrew, Tom, and Thomas discuss Korea's stock market hitting a circuit breaker overnight with an 8.5% drop, bond traders positioning for a 4.3% CPI surge that could complicate Kevin Warsh's rate-cut plans, and what the renewed inflation fears mean for markets, the Fed, and the AI trade. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST: http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBrief...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Zelensky's open letter to Putin proposing direct man-to-man peace talks with potential involvement from the US and Europe as security guarantors, while Trump is focused on Iran, and S&P Dow Jones Indices' surprise rejection of SpaceX's S&P 500 inclusion, citing GAAP profitability and float requirements. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Netflix's integration of generative AI and natural language processing to help viewers cut through content overload with personalized recommendations and a voice user interface, alongside the latest Iran update with the Foreign Minister claiming no tangible progress in talks, Bibi Netanyahu's CNBC comments raising the prospect of restarting the war, Trump's hope for a...