The Market Call

As usual Gareth and Jeremy discuss the macro backdrop to markets over the last week and take a look at UK company news. We have a look at CML Microsystems results. Jeremy tries to compare the UK market to the England football team's progress to date at Euro '24. Next week, we get UK GDP data, US inflation data, and more politics. Made possible by Progressive Equity .

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the week's macro and UK market news before looking ahead to next week. The headlines remain dominated by politics with more than one election every week during 2024. The UK election outcome is largely known, but there is more uncertainty elsewhere. We have seen a return of Yen weakness, which highlights the high level of Japanese government debt and very low bond yields....

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the macro and UK company news of the past week and examine what lies ahead next week. This week's macro focus is on the UK, with annual inflation landing on target at 2%, the Bank's decision to keep rates on hold, and better-than-expected retail sales and consumer confidence data. In UK company news, they discuss ongoing M&A activity, including today's revelation that...

Gareth & Jeremy discuss the way European elections and particularly the surprise French National Assembly election are impacting markets. They also cover the US rate decision and inflation data this week. The UK is keeping calm and carrying on as Raspberry Pi successfully launches onto the market and they discuss other companies including DFS, Peel Hunt, Oberon, Oxford Metrics and Idox. Next w...

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the week's market news from a macro perspective, focusing on UK companies and the equity market. Lower commodity and energy prices and the start of the rate reduction cycle as the ECB lowers rates are included this week. Politics is having an impact in India and Mexico, and looking into next week, we have the European elections underway this weekend. Jeremy talks about th...

Gareth & Jeremy discuss the week's market news. US GDP growth has started to slow down. However, the big news is the return to life of the UK stock market. Our equity capital markets, long believed dead, sprang to life again last week and priced £8bn with some large rights issues and a wide range of smaller deals that have been absorbed by a strengthening market. What a difference some liquidi...

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the economic news that UK inflation is not falling as fast as expected, and the big political news about the UK  General Election. In the US, Nvidia is a sprinting giant that rose one HSBC in value in the minutes following its better-than-expected Q2 earnings release. They also discuss the growing M&A activity in the UK market and the barbarians in the boardrooms of U...

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the week's market news, highlighting the lower-than-expected US inflation print. The UK is increasingly in a Goldilocks scenario with the lower US$ and relative strength of the Pound, giving the BoE greater scope to reduce rates next month. There is increasing momentum behind the UK market move. In UK company news, Raspberry Pi has announced its intention to IPO in London...

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the improving macroeconomic backdrop, with easier financial conditions driven by the Fed's decision to reduce its balance sheet less quickly. Is negative QT the same as QE? The effect is the same. The BoE is pretty explicitly steering towards a rate cut at the next meeting in June. Lower mortgage rates are on the horizon, and the feel-good factor is returning, albeit too...

Gareth and Jeremy are joined this week by Property & Construction analyst and housebuilding meteorologist, Alastair Stewart . The macro topics for discussion are the Yen, the continued volatility in the Asian currency markets, the Federal Reserve policy rate decision and what the Bank of England might do with regards to its own interest rate decision next week. Alastair talks about why he thin...

Please note this was recorded before the Microsoft and Alphabet Q1 results were announced. Gareth and Jeremy discuss the prospect of great equity market dispersal, the benign political risk of the UK, the demise of ESG, and the attractive value of UK-listed assets. Meta and Nvidia share prices are falling, and the Magnificient Seven shows signs of fragmentation. It might be too early to call. Stil...

For this week's Market Call Gareth and Jeremy are joined again by Scott Evans of the London Business School and the Deutsche Numis Equity Indices. Scott talks about market performance in Q1 2024. Where have markets come from, how have they performed in Q1, and where are they going? Bond yields have risen, inflation is sticky, and rates are higher for longer. Equities have had a good quarter, albei...

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the week in markets. US inflation is proving sticky, and it is increasingly difficult to justify cutting rates on economic grounds. The question is whether the BoE or ECB would cut ahead of the Fed. China is exporting deflation. In the UK, GDP grew more than expected in February, and the January figure was revised upwards. In UK equities, there is heightened debate and co...

Legendary technology analyst and new Progressive team member George O'Connor joins Gareth & Jeremy. Jeremy discusses the backdrop for persistent inflation and higher for longer interest rates including higher commodity prices, including gold. They discuss how pawnbrokers, H&T and Ramsdens illustrate how higher gold prices lead people to sell gold objects for their scrap value. George updat...

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the UK budget, the prospect of rate cuts, and the new high in gold prices. There are more bids in the UK; this time, for Spirent and Virgin Money. We had results from STV & Beeks, and updates from housing-related companies Travis, Ibstock, Headlam, and Likewise, all looking for a pick-up in housing activity. Next week's main macro news will be US CPI and PPI inflation...

Jeremy & Gareth discuss recovering UK housing activity, the UK's IPO prospects, the EV problem, Bitcoin ETFs, the knockout bid for Wincanton as another indicator of the value in the UK small cap market, improving evidence of equity fund raises, and updates from Taylor Wimpy and Howden Joinery. Looking into next week, setting Wednesday's Spring Budget aside for now, Jeremy highlights the prospe...

Gareth & Jeremy discuss the path for interest rates, Nvidia and the AI bubble, the parallels to the dot-com bubble, and what might happen next. In the UK they discuss Springfield Properties, Currys, Dialight, and Gooch & Housego. Finally, Jeremy looks at the macro data that might impact markets this week. Brought to you by Progressive Equity Research . 

In their weekly chat, Jeremy & Gareth discuss the UK recession, the trends for inflation and interest rates and how stock markets are behaving and the outlook for the consumer. They ask whether the UK might go it alone and cut rates before a move from the Fed. They also discuss Bloomsbury Publishing and the demand for fantasy fiction, XP Power and implications for de-stocking in industrial sup...

Gareth and Jeremy are joined by Alastair Stewart, who talks about the Barratts Redrow acquisition, the outlook for the housebuilding sector, house price data and the emerging recovery in transaction volumes. Additionally, they cover the updates from Beeks Financial Cloud and Sanderson Design, and in next week's news, they highlight the release of some potentially disappointing UK macro data. Broug...

Rate Reductions on Hold but Outlook for UK Small Caps Remains Positive Jeremy and Gareth discussed issues in markets last week with the outlook for interest rates, inflation, the UK housing market, emerging banking strains based on commercial real estate lending with echoes of last year's US regional banking crisis, and the Mag Seven reporting season. In the UK, they talk about STV, specifically i...

Jeremy and Gareth talk about the week in markets, how the world economy is shaping up and, in particular, what the hell's happening in China, its economy and stock market. Also discussed are UK updates from Forterra , Idox , Wetherspoon, and Aquis Exchange. Brought to you by Progressive Equity Research . 

Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans are joined by Scott Evans of the London Business School and co-compiler of the Deutsche Numis Market Indices to discuss the performance of mid and small-cap last year, over the long term, and what might be driving equity market performance in 2024. In addition, they mention updates from Concurrent Technologies and Gamma Communications from last week.   

Jeremy McKeown & Gareth Evans discuss the macro drivers behind this week's equity markets and some company updates that caught their attention.  Companies mentioned this week include UK housebuilders, M&S, Marks Electrical, Sosander and Xaar. 

Macro & Overnight It’s a quiet day for macro news; investors are focusing on US inflation data later today for clues about the Fed rate decision, where the next FOMC meeting is on January 30th. The SEC finally approved Bitcoin ETFs in the US market, widening the scope for investors to access the alternative asset, for example, via 401K pension plans. The Winklevoss brothers first proposed a Bi...

Macro & Overnight The Bitcoin price was more volatile than usual overnight as speculation waxed and waned regarding the SEC’s expected approval of about a dozen applications for ETFs. There remain strong indications that SEC approval will be granted today for ETFs from providers such as Blackrock and Fidelity, among others, despite erroneous reports online that approval had already been grante...