The Market Call

This week Jeremy & Gareth comment on the Middle East situation, its potentially huge and long-term impact on supply chains but also the ability of humanity to reinvent and rearrange very quickly. Jeremy suggests that the equity market's buoyancy is partly a short-squeeze on Mag 7 as AI spend continues to reach new frenzied highs, and asset managers want "safe" US Dollar assets. The US may have...

This week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss the only thing that matters - the "cardiac event" threatening the world's circulatory system for its oil lifeblood. Echoes of Suez reverberate - and the "petrodollar" arrangements of arms sales and protection look thoroughly undermined.  Jeremy points out that this feels like "hypernormalisation"....everyone knows that the world order is changing, but is afraid...

Jeremy and Gareth discuss the ongoing challenges emanating from the Middle East. Unlike last year's tariff news, where the Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) trade often won out, it takes two to TACO in a war like this - and Iran so far is not helping. Markets have been stung, although the US Dollar is once again the "safe haven" asset, making the inflationary impact worse for non-USA countries.  Th...

This week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss the obvious (and only) story that really matters - the US and Israeli attacks on Iran.  What is obvious is that America's "complete control of the airspace" has not resulted in reopening the Strait of Hormuz - small Iranian missiles and drones remain a problem.  Less obvious is that America's "no limits on availability of munitions" presumably leaves Ukraine's...

The Market Call returns to analyse market  volatility ,  geopolitical tensions , and the impact of the Trump administration on the global economy and markets . Jeremy and Gareth explore U.S. GDP hitting 4.4% , and a historic precious metals  boom with gold nearing $5,000 and silver approaching $100 an ounce. Discover key insights on the U.S. real economy , bond yields , and six critical investment...

In the last episode of 2025, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the significant events of the week, including volatile equities, what precious metals prices are telling us, and the ups and downs of oil prices, with the US Navy on patrol offshore of Venezuela.  There has been a data dump of macro numbers and rate decisions, and an important decision by Europe's leaders not to seize frozen Russian assets. Ov...

Jeremy and Gareth discuss the main events of the last week in financial markets. The primary focus is on the mixed messaging from the Federal Reserve with its interest rate decision described as a hawkish cut. Jeremy describes how we might interpret this move, which is now signalling only one further rate cut in 2026. Kevin "The Real Asset" Hassett is widely expected to be announced as Jay Powell'...

This week Jeremy and Gareth discuss mainly the apparent confusion of bitcoin falling while other “inflation hedge” or “real asset” measures like gold and silver are at or close to all-time highs.  Jeremy has four or five reasons why this might be the case - all of which highlight the usefulness of bitcoin’s “always on” trading 24/7 as a barometer or investor opinion. Macro markets have helped Rach...

As Americans took a break to overindulge on Thanksgiving, we Brits were forced to listen to our government explain how they had overindulged recently and how we must now pay for it.  This week, Dowgate's three wise men mansplain the Budget and its implications.  Jeremy and Gareth are joined by Progressive building and construction analyst and Property Week columnist, Alastair Stewart, to offer his...

This week Jeremy and Gareth start by talking about the market changing its mind twice, and quite materially.  The positive reaction to the US government's reopening was shortlived, as was the delight at NVIDIA's blowout earnings on Wednesday.  In both cases, prices were boosted by good news, only to drift - in NVIDIA's case by 8% top-to-bottom in the course of just a day.  Markets always move, but...

Jeremy and Gareth discuss the week's events, with a greater focus on the UK, following the Reeves bombshell overnight that she has pivoted away from her previous indication that she would raise income tax for the first time in 50 years at the upcoming Budget on November 26th. This suggestion across most front pages today has thrown the gilts and the value of the pound into some turmoil. Meanwhile,...

This week Jeremy and Gareth discuss a relatively calm week in the markets - China and the USA have reached a deal of sorts, the USD is slightly stronger but not so strong as to cause trouble elsewhere.  The Fed is confused (and will be careful, likely meaning rates staying higher) because America remains in Federal shutdown and data is scarce.  Still, US equity markets remain robust, and Elon Musk...

Jeremy and Gareth discussed the week's main market news, starting with the historic meeting between Trump and Xi, and praised Treasury Secretary Bessent for his role in positioning the market. The Fed FOMC delivered a hawkish rate cut, which sent markets higher; however, things might get more uncertain as the US government shutdown starts to affect the collection of macroeconomic data for future r...

This week, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the fragile peace in hot wars and trade wars. There is a sense of finality about Trump's latest attempts to get Putin and Zelensky to agree on ceasefire terms. Trump is losing patience with both parties. The choice of Budapest as the location for Trump and Putin's meeting was no coincidence. Meanwhile, Trump's on-and-off talks with Xi seem to be on again. The p...

This week, Jeremy and Gareth consider Trump's quick switch from declaring peace in the Middle East to opening a (new) trade war with China - which has almost as quickly subsided, with the Trump/Xi meeting now "back on".    Jeremy highlights the ongoing strength of gold - FOMO bubble or long-term trend driven by debasement of currencies ?  And the great rewards of being a gold miner - with unparall...

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the highlights of the last week in financial markets. Gold (and other precious metals) move to all-time highs, representing a foot on the brake. What are they worried about? Well, there are emerging risks around credit conditions in private markets and increasing concerns that the AI capex cycle is turning into a fully fledged bubble, one that Jeff Bezos, no less, called...

After a short break, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the current state of markets as we head into Q4 of 2025. Jeremy suggests that the US recession has been cancelled, and while the music is playing, equity investors feel compelled to dance. Over Q3, the $ has stabilised and the £ has weakened. The US is "boom baby boom", while the UK is flatlining with no economic growth and a long wait for the Budget...

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the key factors that have impacted financial markets over the past week and take a look ahead to what lies ahead for investors. Bond markets got the yips over talks of IMF visits for France and the UK. However, no one informed the FX market, and the value of the £ remained solid, helped in part by the weakening of the $. However, it's all relative, and the real value of t...

This week, Jeremy and Gareth debate Trump's ongoing attacks on the US Fed...perhaps Powell is rolling over, but the recently "sacked" board member Lisa Cook is not.  The dollar fell and long bond yields rose, but not by much.  France is showing renewed (and traditional) political risk, and the landscape across Europe feels pressured.  The UK is once again facing an Autumn of Worry as the budget's...

This week has been relatively quiet. Gareth and Jeremy discuss the prospects for peace in Europe, the not quite so bad news, but still not good news, about the UK economy and our public finances. UK inflation and the long end of the gilt market both look like they might be getting out of control. UK inflation has now been above target for 49 out of the last 51 reports. Not conventionally a scenari...

In their usual weekly chat, Jeremy and Gareth cover the macro market news and events with a few thoughts on what it all means. While the UK reporting season is a bit dull, the US Q2 reports have been more positive. There is a long wait for the Autumn Budget in the UK, and many companies are likely to face a long wait for the inevitable tax increases. Lots of comments out there about gambling taxes...

Gareth and Jeremy discuss macroeconomic developments and how they might impact financial markets. Plenty of noise around tariffs still, and still difficult to determine any signal. Meanwhile, the Fed and the BoE have both had contentious rate-setting meetings, highlighting the unprecedented way in which like-minded policymakers have differing views about the future path of monetary policy. Jeremy...

This week, Jeremy and Gareth talk Turnberry and trade deals - with a backdrop of some tech titans' Q2 earnings reports with such strong results that "American Exceptionalism" seems as strong as ever.  The anticipated dispersion of capital to other venues will have to wait, as AI spend dominates and American giants are mainly the beneficiaries.    The US FOMC decision (to leave rates unchanged) all...

Jeremy & Gareth, having skipped a week, cover the macro news of the last fortnight. Trump's new tariff "magic money tree" has encouraged him to ramp up the rhetoric on tariffs. Critically, the inflationary impact of higher tariffs is now coming into focus, impacting the growing feud between the White House and the Federal Reserve.  Japan has struck a deal with the US, but the EU and China are...

This week, Gareth and Jeremy discuss how an emboldened Trump has raised the tariff temperature while also considering the potential for a version of the future to be one of US economic growth. But whatever the path forward, Paul Tudor Jones' mantra, that all roads lead to inflation , seems increasingly appropriate. Risk assets continue their march higher with Nvidia and Bitcoin reaching new all-ti...