The Market Call

As we kick off 2025, Jeremy and Gareth discuss the impact of Donald Trump's rhetoric (and eventual actions) and the reality that destabilising the world works for Trump in two ways: his eventual arrival and "resolution" of many of these Trump-created pressures will be seen as a great "deal" for him to celebrate, and in the meantime the disarray will lead to a flight to safety, which is (to date) t...

This week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss Jay Powell spoiling the Santa Rally, indicating that rates might not fall as far as he previously said, sending the US $ soaring and risk assets into a tailspin. Is this the end of the Trump Trade? Maybe, and perhaps not a bad thing for the UK market. The DXY index is the gauge of how this might play out. In the UK, higher inflation is partly driven by higher w...

This week, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the new world order emerging ahead of The Donald's arrival. The end of 50 years of the Assad regime in Syria is a win for Turkey and Israel but leaves uncertainty surrounding the country and the region's future direction. China signals that its leadership is prepared to accept a lower yuan to counter the prospect of higher tariffs. However, for markets, it is a...

This week Jeremy and Gareth talk about the surprise power vacuums in both France and South Korea, with Europe and Asia needing stability and cohesion more than ever, as Trump looms.  Jeremy runs through the pros and cons of a Trump presidency for the economy, and the UK still seems a safe (and cheap) place for global investors to park some capital. Stock news from Progressive clients in the form o...

This week Jeremy and Gareth talk through the goings-on in the USA, as Trump's cabinet takes shape - with some of the picks being less outlandish than you might think.  Trump's cheap energy policy ironically raises natural gas prices in the short term, and as ever, don't forget Japan... The UK has been busy, with four Progressive clients ( Idox , Severfield , STV Group and IG Design ) delivering ne...

This week Jeremy and Gareth discuss Jeremy's eye-opening discoveries from his recent trip to Buenos Aires, Argentina...an economy potentially defying the odds and showing the way for free-market success and opportunity. Jeremy provides a succinct summary and explains his reasons for optimism. Meanwhile, Trump makes his cabinet nominations, Musk-related stocks, bitcoin and the US Dollar all rise. G...

A quieter week, with the US inflation print the main data... Gareth is joined by Mike Trippitt , Progressive's financials analyst, who tells us that "higher for longer" rates can actually be not a bad thing for banks.  Mike highlights that the banking sector did very well as rates rose during 2022 and 2023, and discusses the current outlook.     Progressive clients Zoo Digital , Forterra , Petro M...

This week, Gareth is joined by Alastair Stewart , Progressive's Building & Construction analyst.  The main topic of discussion is obviously the US election, the initial market relief at the quick result, and market hopes for a capital-friendly and economically successful second Trump term.  The benefits of "drill, baby, drill" vs the pain of tariffs and removal of large pools of low-cost labou...

Jeremy and Gareth discuss, obviously, the UK Budget... Rachel Reeves may have (just) avoided a Kwarteng moment, but bond investors have been worried at the level of debt.  Equity investors, on the other hand, have shown relief that AIM's IHT benefits are largely intact following Wednesday.  But it was a "big" Budget with lots of new tax, and lots of near-term expenditure without lots of detail or...

Jeremy and Gareth look back over the week and concluded that it mostly lived up to last week’s billing…little major economic news; but plenty of politics in the headlines.   Bond yields globally are rising despite central bankers in general telling us that inflation is dead, although some more hawkish comments came from the Fed.  Meanwhile, the IMF has raised a warning flag over the “disconnect” b...

This week Jeremy and Gareth discuss events in Gaza and Israel, with oil prices lower as the risk of an attack on Iranian oil facilities has reduced, and the death of the Hamas leader could even open the fabled "path to peace".  Meanwhile, even as energy prices dip, datacentre owners Google, Microsoft and Amazon are buying nuclear power capacity to avoid any risk of interruption to AI availability....

This week Jeremy and Gareth comment on the "jury's out" reaction to Chinese stimulus, and worries that US inflation may be hard to eradicate.   The UK seems to be doing reasonably well despite investor worries over tax increases and bond-market concerns about increased borrowing.  Jeremy quotes a chancellor to Louis XIV, and suggests that Rachel Reeves will do well to produce a budget that "plucks...

This week Jeremy and Gareth focus on Asia...the "Beijing Bazooka" has launched Chinese equities skywards, while Japan still holds risk for global markets.  Ironically, current tensions in the Middle East might be helping markets ignore Japan for a while longer, but in Europe inflation has fallen fast, raising concerns of a slowing economic outlook.     In the UK, as well as a buoyant housing marke...

Jeremy and Gareth are joined this week by Alastair Stewart, Progressive's Building and Construction analyst.   The main macro surprise this week has been some rapid and arguably extreme stimulus activities undertaken by the Chinese authorities...Jeremy points out that although this has been seen as something of a "sugar rush" of good news (Chinese equities rose by almost 4%) there may be a deeper...

This week's podcast sees Jeremy and Gareth discuss the 50-basis point cut from the US Federal Reserve, who have previously told us that inflation is pretty much under control and the primary focus is now saving jobs (the US has a dual mandate, unlike the UK Central Bank).     But there is risk - Jeremy highlights that the last time the Fed cut rates by 0.5% in one go was (coincidentally also Septe...

This week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss the prospects for a soft or hard landing for the US economy. While bond and oil markets are pricing in a recession, other markets like gold and the yen suggest financial market stress. However, while the US inflation prints are softening, the main focus for policymakers is jobs. Equity markets are skittish and indecisive, with the AI bubble coming and going, as...

This week in The Market Call Jeremy and Gareth discuss the choppy start to the month of September - potentially echoing the worries at the beginning of August.   Back in August, the concerns related to a rising Yen and falling dollar, a "carry trade" that might unwind with consequent selling of US assets. This time, the worry is that although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has told us that the main wo...

This week’s Market Call sees Jeremy and Gareth  talk mainly macro - there was very little UK stock news, but a lot going on more broadly.     Markets have had a few days to digest the comments from US Fed Chairman Jay Powell, who last week steered towards lower US rates at the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers.  The fear might have been that this could prompt new worries over the US-Japan...

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the prospects for Jackson Hole, the chances of a rate-cutting cycle starting at the Fed in September, and whether the US is heading for a soft or hard landing. While the markets see upside, stock market history suggests that the start of these cycles is followed by increased market volatility and corrections. The most recent examples were following cuts in 2000, 2007 and...

This week’s Market Call sees Jeremy and Gareth discussing the UK outlook. UK GDP data was up 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, showing the economy is growing, albeit slowly, and putting the UK at #3 in the G7 group - a reassuring backdrop for investors.  Meanwhile we also had inflation “down but not out”…with the figure this week showing a less-than-expected rise to 2.2%. Producer prices are showing some s...

This week Jeremy and Gareth discuss what was supposed to be a quiet week but was anything but.  The US unemployment rate of last Friday triggered the Sahm Rule, indicating that the US is in recession. This was the spark that lit markets and, in particular, uncovered concerns about the global Yen debt levels and the popular Yen carry trade. US tech stocks and Japanese equities fell sharply. This ca...

This week has seen a flurry of macro data, giving Jeremy and Gareth plenty to discuss.   European growth is slowing (the German economy is in decline) but inflation is nudging upwards - not a good combination. Elsewhere, we saw one rate rise, one rate reduction and a "wait and see".  Japan saw rates rise, just as US rates were signposted likely to be reduced in future months (possibly September) -...

Gareth and Jeremy are joined this week by Ian Robertson to bring a "tech perspective" given the tumble in US mega-cap tech stocks.   Markets reacted in a cautious way to Biden's decision to step aside in favour of Kamala Harris, and there are some signs that global economies remain fragile.  We also had warnings and downgrades from a number of bellwether stocks - notably Unilever and Nestle, as we...

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the tumultuous week that was.    With England’s football woes kicking off the week, the rest was dominated once again by politics. In the UK the new Labour government’s policies were outlined in the King’s Speech, with much talk around changes to the planning process and the likely positive repercussions for UK housebuilders and the construction sector as a whole.    Trum...

This week, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the positive set-up for UK equities, helped by stronger-than-expected GDP growth for May, the firm £, and lower US inflation, which has raised hopes of rate cuts. The new Labour government's honeymoon period is underway, and they are looking busy, but will it last forever? There are emerging signs that the unwinding of the concentrated US tech rally might lead...