The Lance Roberts Show Podcast

(3/16/22) The news moves markets, and as the Russian invasion of Ukraine remains in the headlines, COVID has been all but eliminated! After sanctions on Russian oil were put in place, oil futures shed 2%. NFIB Survey shows sentiment waning, wage expectations falling, and anticipated sales down. The higher costs for energy are diverting money in household budgets from spending elsewhere. The neighb...

(3/15/22) It might take a short-term loan for your next fill-up: Crude Oil price inflation isn't over; are we seeing the death of ESG investing in the face of fiscal reality? The flaw in investor anchoring--and market perspective. A critique of the State of the Union Address; there is a silver lining in higher prices for oil. Russia vs Ukraine by the numbers; the exogenous event; Elon Musk--buildi...

(3/14/22) It might take a short-term loan for your next fill-up: Crude Oil price inflation isn't over; are we seeing the death of ESG investing in the face of fiscal reality? The flaw in investor anchoring--and market perspective. A critique of the State of the Union Address; there is a silver lining in higher prices for oil. Russia vs Ukraine by the numbers; the exogenous event; Elon Musk--buildi...

(3/11/22) Markets are in a coiled-spring state, like the bear in "The Revenant," waiting to pounce. What the Fed says next week could change everything--one way or the other. Why not solve the Russian-Ukraine War with a cage match between Putin and Zelensky? The money lessons we teach our kids should be taken to heart by adults. The importance of including inflation in retirement planning cannot b...

(3/10/22) Next Week's Fed Meeting and monetary policy are front and center...but tightening is already occurring, thanks to higher energy prices. Will the Fed back off inflationary stance--and protect financial markets, or go full-speed ahead with higher interest rates? The Amazon 20:1 stock split AND $10-B stock buy-back--a defacto move for larger companies. Who's really to blame for high energy...

(3/10/22) The NASDAQ chalked up a 3% gain, and he S&P bounded nearly as much in the biggest one-day gain we've seen in a while. But even with this volatile behavior, markets have been in a consistent decline since January. The out-sized rallies have continued to fail--a hallmark of the correctional process. Below the surface of the average, individual companies are recording losses of up to 30...

(3/9/22) The news moves markets, and as the Russian invasion of Ukraine remains in the headlines, COVID has been all but eliminated! After sanctions on Russian oil were put in place, oil futures shed 2%. NFIB Survey shows sentiment waning, wage expectations falling, and anticipated sales down. The Fed bet: raise rates or hold firm? Nickel trading suspended until Friday; what then? Manipulation of...

(3/9/22) Oil prices on Tuesday spiked on expectations of sanctions on Russian oil, and as it came to pass, oil futures dropped 2%. Oil had been over-sold by more than three standard deviations, so a pullback was not unexpected. An oil price correction back down to $100/bbl would not be surprising, as a re-test of the 50-DMA--and that could set oil prices to go even higher, still. But high prices a...

(3/8/22) The cost of filling your tank just got real, and it's effectively pulling liquidity out of the market, and slowing down economic growth. Earnings Estimates are too optimistic with consumers having less to spend as a result of higher energy costs. This could bring on Recession before the end of the year. Just because NASDAQ has declined 20% does not make it a bear market--it's the trend th...

(3/8/22) Markets sold off on Monday, breaking through support all the way back to October's levels. Markets are not yet on a sell-signal, and not really all that over-sold--meaning, there's still some downside risk with which to be reckoned. We will likely re-test the intra-day lows established when Russia invaded Ukraine. Sentiment remains negative--the CNN Fear & Greed gauge is in the "extre...

(3/7/22) It might take a short-term loan for your next fill-up: Crude Oil price inflation isn't over; are we seeing the death of ESG investing in the face of fiscal reality? The flaw in investor anchoring--and market perspective. Why high oil prices are essentially tightening money supply; the true cause of inflation, per Milton Friedman (it's Washington's fault); Word of the Day: "Slowbalization....

(3/7/22) Why be invested now, with all the turmoil in the world? Controlling your emotions will help you avoid making mistakes with long-term disadvantages. While markets have started 2022 with a 10% decline (normal in any year), investor anchoring can skew your view: when compared to the all-time highs of October 2021, today's markets are only off by about 3%. The reality is that markets really h...

(3/4/22) Girl Scout Cookie Season returns with a vengeance; selling techniques & economic impact. Market performance continues to baffle,. Why is everyone's side-job selling Real Estate? the importance of teaching kids the value of money and delayed gratification; money saving lessons for today from the Great Depression: eliminating recurring charges, lowering credit card rates, paying with ca...

(3/3/22) Markets seem to be doing great, but most of the support is coming from corporate share buy-backs, now at record high levels. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's first day of testimony was well-received on Wall St. Energy makes up 7% of GDP, but actually touches all aspects of daily life. Pricing Gasoline at 9/10ths Gallon; Bear Market Strategies, and what Volatility means. There's no direct link...

(3/3/22) Markets liked what Jerome Powell had to say to Congress, and continue to consolidate off over-sold conditions of a few days ago, holding support from January's lows. Markets remain in a bullish position, with stock buy backs very supportive of large-caps. Despite geopolitics and inflationary pressures, markets have held their own, going through a corrective process. However, there is stil...

(3/2/22) Markets commence the month of March in weak fashion as the Atlanta Fed reports GSP growth at 0.0%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to address Congress and the tone of his comments could sway markets bullishly or bearishly. Joe Biden's State of the Union addressed problems facing the country, but no realistic solutions to economic challenges. The good thing about oil prices; the only cure f...

(3/2/22) Russia surrounds Kiev, markets sell-off under continuing pressure, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell prepares to testify before Congress: His comments could provide the octane to spur markets higher...or... Markets are set to rally again after re-testing support in a bid to consolidate above January & October's lows. With sentiment decidedly dour, what is needed is good news, which could co...

(3/1/22) Markets are holding-up, despite the distractions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but still remain in a downward trend. There is still possibility of Russian default on debt, with implications for Banking system. Markets are still skittish over liquidity, and looking for a reason to reflexively rally. Cryptocurrencies are being asked to block Russian transactions. Green agenda is being...

(3/1/22) Markets are opening lower over concerns about Russia, but the VIX is telling a slightly different story: Remember when we shut down the economy in March 2020?? Runaway volatility was based on uncertainty seeded by the COVID epidemic. Most recently, despite the 10% market correction over the last two months, concerns and sell-offs over the Fed's hiking of interest rates, liquidity, and the...

(2/28/22) Russia's ill-advised invasion of Ukraine is having international repercussions, as domestic markets experience the biggest downturn since 2020. Oil prices are up $4/bbl as OPEC declines to boost production, and Russia is placed in time-out by SWIFT. Commodity prices are surging to 1973 highs, and interestingly, Cryptocurrencies are flailing in the crisis. SWIFT removal creates counter-pa...

(2/25/22) Markets' surprising close on Thursday (2/24) proves how emotional investors can be; how economic effects will be felt in the U.S. The Fed's reaction and response: "We will not be dissuaded from hiking rates." We'll see. Retirees are looking anew at Social Security as a bridge alternative for annuities; critical examination of taking Social Security at 64 or 67 instead of holding out unti...

(2/24/22) Russia Invades Ukraine--what's next? The Big Question for the US is what the Federal Reserve is likely to do in response--pausing rate hikes and balance sheet shuffling? The key point for investors is to not overreact as markets capitulate. The political implications of Russia-Ukrainian conflict-out comes unknown. It is interesting to see the effects on Gold and Bitcoin. SEG-1: How to Re...

(2/24/22) Markets will open sharply lower following the overnight invasion of Ukraine by Russia. In anticipation, markets closed lower Wednesday (2/23), right on support set back in October 2021. How much more is there to go? We look to markets' previous responses for clues. Russia invaded Ukraine over a disagreement about Crimea in 2014. Markets then responded with the understanding there would b...

(2/23/22) Geopolitical tensions, Inflation, and the spectre of rising interest rates may already be providing the Fed with enough gravity to fight inflationary pressures: Might the Fed be able to avoid a rate hike? Why Hindsight Bias and Anchoring are two bad habits that can thwart your portfolio performance during market downturns; why it's too late to buy into the oil surge; if you're buying wha...

(2/23/22) Markets dip into correction territory, thanks to pressures from slowing earnings growth, higher inflation, the Federal Reserve, and Russian headlines. Markets Tuesday did hold support at January's lows, and should actually be positioned to rally, thanks to very negative, bullish sentiment across the board. As markets re-test support, they're over-sold on all levels, and we're looking for...