The Lance Roberts Show Podcast

The Fed wants to hasten its rate hikes and balance sheet shrinkage, but history would indicate rates will behave quite differently. Watch @LanceRoberts' latest #ThreeMinutesOnMarketsAndMoney on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0URKrkgslo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 #Markets #Money #Investing

((4/6/22) The Fed's Lael Brainard is calling for a faster run-off of its balance sheet in a more rapid application of quantitative tightening; this will not create any more inventory, but will reduce buyers. Margin Calls and the problem with bailouts; why the weak should be allowed to fail. The ferocity of downward trends; the conundrum of margins in commodity markets. How liquidity kills you quic...

4/6/22) Tuesday's market sell-off was not too surprising, as markets retraced from over-sold positions to "over-boughtedness." As markets open down this morning, the 50-DMA will be challenged--and that needs to hold, at least for the moment. Even though markets are currently over-sold, a very clear sell-signal remains. Two choices beckon: either trade along the 50-DMA for a few days, working off t...

(4/4/22) Elon Musk knows how to combat Twitter, scooping up a 9% stake in the company; April is a stronger month for markets, but could the Fed's activity make for a sloppy summer of trading? Jobs Act 4.0 & How Wall St. extracts capital by changing "accredited investor" definition. More Life with the Roberts, the worst thing you can do for kids; anatomy of a bear market. Best Ice Cream Flavors...

(4/4/22) April tends to be a strong month, statistically; will that trend prevail this year? Only a few weeks ago did markets sell-off into extreme over-sold territory on Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Since then, markets have rallied, and now needs to consolidate to hold important critical support at moving averages that are just below current market levels. If markets break through these levels,...

(4/1/22) There's no need for April Foolery--things are strange enough as they are; We need Reagan's 'Whip Inflation Now' resurrected; what is the Yield Curve telling us; how to read the Bond Market. Assessing Retirement Reform; the Opus Newton experiment; What did Granpda Rosso's Retirement look like--and is that what you want? Social Security claiming strategies & decisions. SEG-1: How to Whi...

(3/30/22) York Peppermint Patties & Coffee Prices, and the market rally continues, courtesy of a feigned pullback by Russia in Ukraine; why rallies like this only occur in bear markets. The Wisdom of Weddings on Birthdates (and other holidays); What happens after this rally? At what point does the Fed break something? When everyone is suddenly talking about the Yield Curve; Elizabeth Warren vs...

(3/31/22) "The Smartest Guys in The Room," the story of Enron and Video streaming juxtaposed with the launch Tuesday of CNN+; why a market correction is needed to work off excesses. It's a good time to be an agnostic: Neither Bull or Bear. So how many times will the Fed raise rates (before something gets broken)? The Carbon Credits scam and "green gas premiums; the adverse consequences from the qu...

(3/29/22) Quarter-end selling continues; how we allow psychology to affect investing decisions; what happens when inflation is artificially imposed. How debt deters economic growth. Why negativity is a contrarian indicator, and why we sold (some) stocks; Markets are in a Wash, Rinse, Repeat Cycle; Why headlines do not affect all stocks equally; Only 2% of Nestle income derived in Russia. Important...

Will markets hew close to statistics April performance following rallies in March? Watch my latest #ThreeMinutesOnMarketsAndMoney on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OezBEZymMI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 #Markets #Money #Investing

(3/30/22) The current, near-10% rally is largest we've seen in history--assuming we're in a bear market. While technically, we didn't see a correction, the actions of the market belies otherwise. It is only in bear markets that these types of reflexive rallies are observed. We've had very negative sentiment, very light investor positioning, many are shorting the market, and speculators have essent...

(3/29/22) Is the rally of the past few weeks a bonafide return of the Bull Market? Negative sentiment fostered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine set markets up for a reversal when the world didn't come to an end, and rallying mode ensued. All it took was a little good news. Now, with end of the quarter balancing looming, and a lot of portfolio managers still off-sides on their books: Underweight...

(3/28/22) The Oscar Slap heard 'round the world; The Billionaires' Tax explains, and why it won't pass muster; How the Flu was eliminated by COVID, and now...the impact of legislation, and why the Fed uses Quantitative Easing. The moral hazard for investors, and what happens when there's no penalty for excess; the "new" method for dealing with Recession: Don't let them occur. Emergency Assistance...

(3/28/22) Markets' sharp rally heading into the end of the quarter was expected, lifting indexes above the 200- and 50-DMA amidst negative sentiment and light positioning in portfolios. The clearing of overhead resistance sets markets up for a little more rallying up to the levels seen in December last year. Markets are very over bought on multiple levels, and pretty close to triggering a sell-sig...

(3/25/22) How do you adequately plan your financial future with a Fed that is as outdated as a rectal thermometer? Their answer to every problem is sending a check. Gasoline Prices & Animal House; inflation and the "significant passage of time." What happens when your financial plan isn't working? Social Security COLA, tracking inflation's impact on your financial goals; dealing with volatilit...

(3/24/22) Markets' recent rally providing nice relief; bullish appetite for stocks remains, despite Ukraine, Interest rates, and inflation concerns. What happens when the Fed "prints" money; at what point will the Fed have gone too far? Life w The Roberts'; why Recessions aren't a bad thing; gasoline rebates are financial lunacy. Implications and consequences of 3% interest rates; how debt allows...

(3/24/22) Markets' recent rally back above resistance levels sets up for a bullish advance into the end of the month. Markets are over-bought, short-term, so some consolidation at current levels would not be surprising. There is good support as markets sit atop the 50-DMA, and the 20-DMA is starting to turn upwards as another bullish barometer. As the end of the month approaches next week, mutual...

(3/23/22) Lance's mystery Peppermint Patty source; investor sentiment remains negative, but there are technically constructive signs providing portfolio relief; concerns over geopolitics, energy, and food shortages are valid, but they're driving emotional responses by investors. Yield Curves and the story Bonds are telling; the impact of higher rates on pensions; you could be working for free; the...

(3/23/22) Negative sentiment tends to be bullish for stocks, and lately everyone's been convinced the world is about to end. The technicals bear this out: We've had several re-tests of market lows since January, which would include the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But look at how markets rallied, breaking about the 50- and 200-DMA's. Markets need to hold above that resistance level, and reach up t...

(3/22/22) Markets continue to perform remarkably, despite geopolitical distractions and Fed meddling; there seems to be no demand destruction from high energy prices. Yet. The conundrum is markets' readiness to rally amidst negative sentiment. Jerome Powell's "hope for supply-side healing" belies headlong rush to raise rates again. And again. Impact of Russia-Ukraine war; Sanctions also hurting th...

(3/22/22) Maybe not yet, but we're probably getting close: The Fed this week has said it'll need to raise rates faster than previously thought because of rampant inflation. We might get a 50-basis point hike in May because of persistent inflation they didn't see coming (they also didn't see a war between Russia and Ukraine.) Expectations of higher inflation has been pushing bond yields lower. As t...

(3/21/22) Markets decided to goose the index 6% while we're on vacation, and the Fed raises rates 25-basis points, as expected. Cash is now trash, thanks to inflation; why this is not like the '70's. The Greatest Generation and American Manufacturing strength; why CNN is wrong about solving inflation; Permanent DST, Congress' stealth pay raise, Bloomberg's $300k inflation threshold; the Fed is exp...

(3/21/22) Markets rallied an astounding 6% last week, coming off an over-sold, very negative sentiment scenario--which was the perfect set-up for a counter-trend rally. Our advice was to use such a rally to rebalance risk. Did you? The Fed's 25-basis points rate hike, and Friday's quadruple witching deadline, which spurred activity, gave markets the lift necessary to rise into the 200-DMA, which w...

(3/18/22) How much do Girl Scout cookie sales add to the CPI? What the Fed said this week could change everything--one way or the other. Why not solve the Russian-Ukraine War with a cage match between Putin and Zelensky? The money lessons we teach our kids should be taken to heart by adults. The importance of including inflation in retirement planning cannot be under emphasized. Money saving lesso...

(3/17/22) This week's Fed Meeting and monetary policy may be front and center, monetary tightening has been already occurring, thanks to higher energy prices. Will the Fed back off inflationary stance--and protect financial markets, or go full-speed ahead with higher interest rates? The Amazon 20:1 stock split AND $10-B stock buy-back--a defacto move for larger companies. Who's really to blame for...