The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Jacob and Rob offer thoughts about U.S. macro out-performance and some concerning signals coming out of Europe. From there, they offer some thoughts about CI’s unique approach to using geopolitics in the context of investing. They close with thoughts about the life-cycle of analysts and investors and a cautionary tale about guru-syndrome. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:55) - US Macro (08:20) -...

Jacob and Rob get introspective and take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the newsflow recently to talk about the rise of uncertainty, the importance of what you choose to pay attention to, and the impact of ideology on geopolitical constraints. Along the way they talk about U.S.-Venezuela relations, the Israeli-Palestinian War, Hindu nationalism, the future of Mexico, and more. -- Timesta...

Jacob welcomes Emre Dogru back on to the podcast to discuss Turkey’s view of the violence happening in the Middle East. Emre takes a break from eating baklava to explain why he thinks the violence spiraling out of control is unlikely at this point – but he and Jacob explore scenarios for escalation that could prove this view wrong. Jacob will be appearing in a video on Emre’s channel next week on...

Jacob welcomes Eugene Chausovsky, former Stratfor alum and now Senior Director at Newlines Institute, to discuss all things post-soviet: wtf is going on in the Western Balkans, prospects for Ukraine’s inclusion in the EU, whether Azerbaijan will stop at Nagorno-Karabakh, and the many intersecting interests of Central Asia. From there they discuss China and what lessons China may have learned from...

On today's Intrigue Outloud, Ethan is joined by Intrigue co-founder John Fowler and Jacob Shapiro, Partner and Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, to break down the latest from the conflict in Israel and Gaza, and to consider what the fighting tells us about the state of the world order. Thanks to our sponsor, Millennium Space Systems. -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jaco...

Jacob and Rob join forces to catch you up on all the important geopolitical and market developments that the Israel-Palestine war has obscured. They tackle carnage in the U.S. bond market and some very worrying developments in the Chinese economy. From there, they briefly explore gold as an investment opportunity as well as the profile of a good emerging market investment, before closing with thou...

Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari back to the podcast to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian war. They explore regional considerations, Iran’s role and motive behind supporting Hamas, and consider scenarios for what could happen next. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:05) - Hamas' tradecraft (11:42) - Iran and the West Bank (19:00) - How does this affect the image of Hamas and Iran? (28:17) - What is nex...

Jacob welcomes Israeli geopolitical analyst Nitzan David Fuchs to offer an Israeli perspective on the terrible events of the past few days and the difficult weeks ahead. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:15) - Israel's intelligence failure (08:15) - Israel/Hamas situation update (10:20) – Hamas’s intentions (17:08) - Is Iran behind this? (22:12) - What are Israel's strategic goals? (29:33) - How...

Cousin Marko is back at long last – he and Jacob discuss why U.S. elections are the most important thing in the world geopolitically and all the myriad ways a multipolar world is influencing the balance of power and investment decisions. They close with the best basketball analysis you’ll find anywhere in the U.S. YEAH WE SAID IT! -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:00) – U.S. Elections (16:53) – S...

Jacob is in the middle of Mississippi without his fancy microphone, but that doesn’t stop him from recording a reaction to the Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s declaration of war in response. Jacob tries to compartmentalize the politics and emotion of the situation – a nearly impossible task – to explain what is going on at both a local and regional level and what this escalation in violence wi...

Jacob and Rob are on the same continent for a change! They try to make sense of recent volatility in oil prices and take a victory lap on being ahead of the curve on the bloodbath in bond markets. From there, they explore the U.S.-Mexico-China love triangle and what history can and can’t teach us about the future of those three countries. Last but not least is Ukraine’s quest to become the Israel...

Jacob Shapiro and Shaun Haney unpack the India-Canada diplomatic nightmare of the last few weeks and how the Ukraine/Russia war might end. Link to RealAg Post: https://www.realagriculture.com/2023/09/frontlines-national-interests-vs-ideology-indian-separatism-and-western-support-for-ukraine/ -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.inves...

Jacob and Rob dive into some key macro developments – and why they confirm some of CI’s contrarian investment theses. From there, they discuss recent problems in the European Union and Mitsubishi Motor’s decision to leave China, before doing a rapid-fire set of topics to close the podcast.  -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:20) - Macro Overview (19:20) – EU problems  (25:20) - No optimi...

Jacob welcomes Daniel Stelter to the podcast to begin his research process into the future of the German economy with a sober conversation with an expert who thinks Germany is a long-term short. Dr. Stelter's take differs greatly from the one we take at CI, and we really enjoyed hearing his perspective on the future of Germany. Dr. Stelter is the founder of the German Discussion Forum Beyond the O...

Jacob continues to fight through a cold to bring you the geopolitical content you know and love. His weekly chat with Rob starts off with Brazil – and why an interest rate cut in Brazil should matter a big deal from an investment point of view. From there, they touch on the top developments of the week in the South Caucasus and Ukraine before philosophizing on Canada-India relations. -- Timestamps...

Jacob and Rob reunite to discuss developments in geopolitics and markets. They talk about environmental policies and their discontents, explore the hysteria on German deindustrialization, and offer a few thoughts on China’s recent tech resilience. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:24) –German Industrialization (06:00) - The backlash against Green Politics (22:17) - German Industrialization 2.0 (3...

Jacob welcomes Dr. Robert Funk onto the podcast to discuss how Chile has changed over the last 50 years, and more importantly how it will change over the next 10. They briefly explore the legacy of the coup against Allende before exploring why Chile has always been a little bit different than the rest of Latin America…and whether Chile can avoid being caught between great power competition in the...

Jacob welcomes Ryan Bohl back onto the podcast to discuss their respective deep-dive reports into Turkey’s geopolitics. They go back and forth about whether Istanbul or Anatolia is Turkey’s core before taking a very macro view at Turkey’s foreign relations and the risks/opportunities ahead for the Turkish state. Ryan’s report: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/modern-geopolitics-turkey Jacob’...

Jacob welcomes Professor Stephen Nagy onto the podcast to talk about Japan’s internal contradictions, its influential foreign policy, and the role Japan will play in protecting its cherished “free and open Indo-Pacific.” They even spend a few minutes talking about Canada (you’re welcome, Canada!) -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:00) - Migration (06:36) - Changes in Japan's countryside (10:15) -...

Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the news flow to talk about how they think about information more broadly. They take a philosophical dive into the challenges of our current media environment, parsing through their own participation in the phenomenon and how they filter out the noise. They finish with some best practices on information gathering. -- Timestamps: (00:00) -...

Jacob welcomes back Elohim Monard to the podcast – who brings with him fellow Latin America expert Igancio Asis. They discuss the momentous political events in Guatemala, Argentina, and Ecuador over the past week and set the stage for deeper conversations in the future about the role of criminal enterprises in Latin American politics, whether Argentina can ever really change, and the future of Chi...

Jacob fires up the hot-take machine to confront the news about Prigozhin’s death head on, before doing a brief tour of the world to give listeners a “global sitrep” before he heads out on vacation.  -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:55) – Prigozhin (08:06) – BRICS (12:00) – India (14:52) – Ethiopia (15:52) – Guatemala  -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investmen...

Jacob Shapiro welcomes Myles Stapelberg, a member of CI’s Innovation Advisory Board, back onto the podcast to discuss the news about the “discovery” of a room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor. From there, the pivot to developments in nuclear fusion over the past 6 months and some of the challenges and opportunities in the fusion space – a subject bereft with lofty promises, sensational...

Jacob takes to the mic alone to update you on the latest geopolitical developments in the world while Rob, Cousin Marko, and seemingly everyone else in the world is on vacation. Must be nice! -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:51) – Argentinian Primary Elections (03:36) – Panama Canal (04:40) – Ethiopia and Nigeria (08:48) – Nagorno-Karabakh (09:39) – Wheat (12:29) – China (16:00) – Germany -- CI...

Jacob is featured on RealAg Radio with Shaun Haney! They'll dig into China’s economic and social standing and what Russia might do next. You’ll also hear from Joyce Parslow, with Canada Beef, on new culture, lifestyle, health and wellness information programs launched for Canadian beef AND a spotlight interview with Tom Barrie of Koch Ag Services on comparing nitrogen stabilizers. Check out RealAg...