The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Better late than never! Jacob was on the road this week so instead of recording on Thursday they had to record on Friday. The theme of the episode might be confusion – confusion over the narrative on the U.S. economy, on oil prices, on natural gas prices, and even on the future of Ukraine. There are more questions than answers in this episode during a surprisingly pivotal week in geopolitics. -- T...

Jacob welcomes Farzam back onto the podcast – and they have a great deal to discuss, not least of which is the death of three U.S. soldiers in a drone attack by a group supported by Iran. Jacob and Farzam dive past the headlines and talk about what the consequences of the attack will be, whether Iran was behind it, and what Iran’s strategic thinking is in the region more generally, and especially...

Jacob welcomes weather expert Daryl Ritchison back on the podcast to discuss his 2023 hits and misses, his 2024 outlook, and to dive deep into questions of El Nino, weather history, and the riskiest places in the world to live. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:24) – 2023 in review (07:56) – El Niño and the MEI (14:24) – 2024 Outlook: North America (26:35) – Buoys tangent (31:18) - 2024 Outlook:...

Jacob and Rob power through a difficult week to offer insights on how Chinese industrial policy is shaping the world. They explore how the semiconductor industry was buoyed by Chinese demand last year and express doubts about whether the good times will continue to roll in 2024. They talk about Chinese EVs, the proliferation of risk (and how to think about it from both a professional and investmen...

Crosspost with Sean Hanney's Frontlines from RealAgriculture! Up for discussion in this episode: Skirmish in the Red Sea — the U.S. is working to stop Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the shipping lane Logistics are definitely impacted, but is it as big a deal as it could be? There’s many players in the mix, and much to unpack on this one Taiwan’s election is done. Does it make relations with China b...

Jacob and Rob tackle conflicting narratives about oil prices before diving deep into geopolitical and market issues in China and France. They close by addressing some user-submitted questions on the Red Sea and on the stories that are not discussed enough by the mainstream media. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:10) - Present and Future of Oil (19:15) - China/Taiwan (37:25)– France (42:49) – Lis...

Sim returns to the podcast to talk about the successes and failures of Ukraine’s military forces and what the future looks like in the Russia-Ukraine war. From there they spend a bit of time talking about the Red Sea and Black Swans that might impact 2024 and beyond. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:40) – 2023 Russia-Ukraine War Retrospective (15:15) – 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Predictions (33:00)...

Jacob and Rob take a deeper look at a recent World Bank study that purports to show how countries can increase investment…and in so doing reduce poverty and inequality. They tease out some of the assumptions the report makes but also point out how to think about the countries that will succeed in a multipolar world. They also check in on a few geopolitical hotspots: the Red Sea, Ecuador, and Germa...

Ben Shepherd joins Jacob to talk about the Democratic Republic of Congo. Ben urges listeners to think and look beyond the endless stories about violence in the DRC and instead to note, however, halting and fragile, the progress the country has made in the last 20 years and its potential in the future. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:36) – History and geography of the DRC (15:15) - Why is it sha...

Smoke rises from the Red Sea. The hour grows late and Rob calls Jacob seeking his counsel. For that is why you have come, is it not…our old friends? If you like the Lord of the Rings, you got that joke. If you didn’t, what’s wrong with you? Welcome to the return of the Cognitive Dissidents podcast in 2024, with Jacob and Rob relatively downbeat about both markets and geopolitics to start off the y...

Jacob returns with a few thoughts about family, love, and geopolitics. -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm , founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to mak...

Last week of reruns! Jacob Shapiro will be back next week with a full update on his situation and what to expect moving forward. Thank you so so so so much for being so patient with us! In the meantime, we have a fantastic episode with Matt Pines, yet ANOTHER connection via the Twittersphere. Matt breaks down the present day risks associated with cyber warfare and espionage across geopolitical bou...

Rodger Baker and Jacob Shapiro sit down for a discussion about the art and science of doing good geopolitics. Rodger Baker is Executive Director at the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE – Risk Assistance Network + Exchange. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:23) - Mackinder and the Arctic (24:36) - The Art of the Net Assessment (34:30) - The biggest change of the last 25 years…and th...

Today we have a classic Perch Pod episode with Phil Kelly. Phil’s a Professor at Emporia State University. He is the author of Classical Geopolitics which is one of the five books Jacob has assigned almost every geopolitical analyst he has ever trained. He and Jacob talk about the definition and intention of Geopolitics and delve into the Geopolitics of Latin America. -- Timestamps: (01:10) - Intr...

Rachel Ziemba makes her debut on the podcast to discuss what you missed at APEC while everyone was focused on Xi and Biden, prospects for growth in Venezuelan oil production, and why the market might be a little too sanguine about oil prices in 2024. -- Timestamps: (00:51) – Argentina (05:58) – Indonesia/APEC (16:09) – Venezuela (26:10) – Dark underbelly of the economy (31:51) – Iran (39:00) – Oil...

Jacob pops onto Emre Doğru's Youtube show, Strategy Floor to discuss how Israeli intelligence failed to predict the Hama,s attack, the common mistakes in strategic intelligence analysis and forecasting, and managerial lessons for decision-makers. -- Referenced in the Show: Emre's Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xJA7wKNtJY Emre's Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ceyhunemredogru -- CI Site:...

Jacob welcomes Paul Triolo onto the podcast for a nuanced treatment of the relationship between geopolitics and technology – in the context of U.S.-China relations, in the context of multipolar geopolitics, in the context of artificial intelligence, and how all these things are affecting the semiconductor industry in particular. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:02) – Current perceptions of deglo...

Jacob Shapiro fires up the hot-take factory to give you some fresh, piping-hot analysis of Javier Milei’s surprise landslide victory in Argentina’s presidential elections. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Javier Milei -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advi...

Jacob and Rob gather for a chat about the big Xi-Biden meeting on the sidelines of APEC and what it means for the future of the bilateral relationship. Then they turn to passive v. active investing – and explain why playing golf won’t make you a better investor. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:30) - U.S-China relations (32:04) - Investing -- Referenced in the Show: Fight in the Senate: https://...

Jacek and Jacob brave illness to reunite on the podcast. Jacek offers a gloomy perspective on the Russia-Ukraine war, an optimistic perspective on Poland’s future no matter who rules its government – and a lesson to learn for the democratic world from Turkish pragmatism. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:52) - Polish elections (09:00) - Will Ukraine be a part of EU/NATO? (14:27) - Russia-Ukraine...

Jacob is on the road and Rob is fresh off earnings season but that doesn’t stop them from churning out a pod on life’s most persistent questions. They explore the demise of a nuclear project in the U.S. and what it means for the U.S. energy economy, Jacob comes clean about feeling pessimistic about Ukraine, and Rob talks about credit quality issues in the U.S. economy. It’s not all doom & gloo...

Come for Hafsa Halawa’s deep insight on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from a regional point of view. Stay for her insight on the Sudanese civil war, the future of the Egyptian and Ethiopian states, and how everything in the region is interconnected. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:00) -9:35 – Regional considerations (11:30) – Israel's perspective and strategic goals (19:04) – Egypt, Jordan a...

Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University joins the podcast to talk about her recent book. She traces three histories – geopolitical, economic, and democratic – to explain how the world reached its current level of disorder and why she sees hard times on the horizon. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:55) - Book Summary (06:30) - Dealing with a changing landscape (12:09) - Understanding Put...

Jacob and Rob break down the Jerome's latest Fed announcement, inventory and manufacturing cycles, China's interesting new approach to semiconductors, and the inherent danger of monopolistic industries. They venture into the auto world and discuss recent issues with scaling up EV production, before turning to macro-trends and the geopolitical trends (in Mexico, Israel, and Saudi Arabia) that are d...

Jacob welcomes Elohim and Ignacio back on the podcast for a much more upbeat discussion about Argentina’s future in light of last week’s surprising triumph for Sergio Massa against the chainsaw-wielding libertarian Javier Milei. They also address recent changes in U.S. policy toward Venezuela – and explain why the country may be reaching a critical juncture. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:30)...