The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Chase pinch hits for Rob in CI’s weekly update with Jacob. Chase offers a sober take on inflation, before Jacob and Chase explain their bullishness on natural gas and energy in general for the rest of the year. They close with an examination of Japan’s recent moves – and explore how deglobalization is affecting both Japan and China in tandem. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (01:20) - Inflati...

Sim Tack rejoins the podcast to pick up where he and Jacob left off a month ago: about the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel. Sim and Jacob discuss the nitty-gritty of the security situation and how it raises disturbing opportunities for radicalized jihadist voices in the region. From there, they wax philosophical about whether Africa is facing a new era of colonialism and how to appro...

Paul Melly joins the podcast for the first time to offer some much-needed insightful analysis on the developing political situation inside of Niger and the Sahel in general. Jacob and Paul discuss the coup itself and why it looks like the junta is here to stay. They discuss the myriad external actors – France, the U.S., Nigeria, ECOWAS, China, Russia, the EU and Algeria, to name just a few – and h...

Jacob welcomes Matt Pines back onto the podcast to follow through on his promise to have a serious and rigorous conversation about unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs). Matt and Jacob briefly address U.S.-China relations before addressing the controversial recent Congressional hearings about UAPs and exploring the political developments around UAPs and non-human, extraterrestrial life. Matt is a m...

Jacob and Rob are back at it for a weekly chat. They discuss disturbing news out of China that supports Rob’s pessimism in recent months and cuts against some of Jacob’s more optimistic thoughts. From there, they check in on Brazil and its interest rate cut and what the media is getting wrong about that, before closing with some thoughts on Argentina, Turkey, India, and a rapid fire discussion of...

Jacob welcomes back Tomás Villalón Jr onto the Cognitive Dissidents Podcast. They deliver insights on what elements are truly rare (you’ll have to listen to the podcast to find out which!), why China has such a dominant position in gallium and germanium, and tackle the mania over lithium…before turning a little philosophical and laying out the challenges facing particularly democratic governments...

Jacob Shapiro is rejoined by Daryl Ritchison for a reality check on the importance of El Nino in the larger atmospheric setting. They discuss whether weather (see what I did there?) is actually getting worse relative to historical averages and preview what the forecast ahead looks like for North America and Europe. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:00) - Is the weather actually getting worse? (07...

Jacob and Rob catch up on Rob’s trip to Ireland this week and why it might presage new migration issues in Europe. From there they turn to the narrative about electric vehicles and why they are not the glittering solution they are made out to be, before diving deep into the U.S.-China relationship and checking on where China is on the treadmill to hell. Closing thoughts on wheat and natural gas. -...

Jacob offers some thoughts on Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and analysis on Russia’s threats to bomb ships headed for Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. This collapse affects developing countries He closes with possible scenarios going forward and explains what this means for wheat prices and other grains. We will post our regular Weekly Update with Rob on Saturd...

Jacob and Rob briefly analyze the latest inflation data from the U.S. before exploring major geopolitical news (Turkey’s about face on Sweden’s membership in NATO + Ukraine’s future in NATO) and economic news (Brazil’s tax reform). They close with a discussion about a potential emerging trend in health, brought to you courtesy of developments in Rio school cafeterias, and a warning about what the...

Sim Tack rejoins the podcast to discuss current developments in Ukraine’s counteroffensive. He and Jacob discuss theories on wtf is happening in Russia before spending the second half of the podcast, as promised, on Africa – specifically, on political instability in the Sahel, how Russia is building networks of political relationships in Africa…and the impact on the rest of the continent. -- Times...

No guests this week – Jacob takes a step back to talk about the most important geopolitical development of the week, China’s decision to impose export controls on gallium and germanium exports, before teasing a new In-Focus piece on natural gas for Knowledge Platform subscribers.  -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:00) - China is restricting mineral exports (12:21) - Natural gas teaser -- CI...

Rob and Jacob talk about why U.S. economic data continues to surprise to the upside and what it portends for the stock market. From there, they have a wide-ranging, very macro conversation about artificial intelligence and how geopolitics might help identify winners and losers from the coming tech revolution. They close with a few thoughts about protests in France. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (...

Peter Mayer rejoins the podcast to discuss the recent deal between California, Nevada, and Arizona to reduce their water usage from the Colorado River. The deal is underwhelming – but Peter still has hope the states will find a more sustainable future in 2026 and beyond, though either way farmers in this part of the country face serious headwinds. Part 1: https://cognitive-investments.captivate.fm...

Jacob welcomes Chase Taylor, the wizard behind Pinecone Macro Research, back to the podcast to discuss why he thinks a U.S. recession is near (and what indicators to watch for). From there, they explore Japan (bullish!), Nigeria (mixed!) and natural gas (bullish). -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (01:42) - Chase predicts a recession (12:18) - Financial security and the gender gap (15:30) - Ma...

Jacob and Cousin Marko try to make sense of what just happened in Russia over the last 36 hours…and what is going to happen next. They tackle the timeline of events with Prigozhen marching up towards Moscow and engaging Russian Military troops, then move into breaking down some of the more grounded conspiracy theories floating around out there. Jacob and Marko both agree that this is the end of Ru...

Jacob Shapiro hops on the mic for an emergency episode to discuss WTF is happening in Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner mercenary group, has claimed the city Rostov-on-Don in the south of Russia. He is currently marching along a highway towards Moscow and there are reports of fighting between Russian Military and Wagner forces. Putin has responded by naming the movement as an armed r...

Rob is back from vacation and here to provide insights on the UK’s surprising inflation print and why CI believes inflation could be more stubborn than U.S. markets presume. From there, they discuss the latest developments in the Chinese economy – still the most important issue in the world, Titanic submarine developments notwithstanding – before discussing the auto industry and their shared skept...

Jacob welcomes Enrique Fonseca onto the podcast for the first time to discuss Spain’s upcoming elections. Enrique Fonseca takes a more conservative approach to politics than Jacob, although they both acknowledge their biases and continue to talk through their disagreements. They spar over the role ideology plays in modern politics and about the extent to which the Spanish left’s emphasis on identi...

Jacob is joined by Reuben Steff to offer a fresh perspective on New Zealand’s geopolitics. They trace the history of New Zealand-U.S. relations, explore New Zealand’s trade dependence on China, share some thoughts on whether or not New Zealand will join AUKUS, and close on Jacinda Ardern’s legacy. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:20) - Why does NZ care about the rest of the world? (08:27) - Brie...

Jacob sits down with RealAgriculture's Shaun Haney to discuss the geopolitical ramifications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They walk through the Black Sea Grain Initiative, food prices, Ukraine's escalating counteroffensive, and China's lowkey efforts to arm Russia. Shaun and Jacob will be chatting once a month about the intersections of geopolitics and agriculture, with crossposts across all o...

Jacob welcomes Tomás Villalón Jr. on the podcast to talk about the geopolitics of metals. Tomás is on CI’s Innovation Advisory Board in addition to being CTO & Co-Founder at Phoenix Tailings – which means he will be a repeat guest. In this episode, Jacob and Tomás talk about the geopolitics of metals from the highest levels, setting the stage for future episodes on supply chain disruptions, te...

Jacob and Rob quickly discuss rumors of an imminent U.S.-Iranian deal that could allow 1 million bpd of Iranian crude to hit global markets, before checking on their 2023 forecast and seeing how well their predictions have fared in the first half of the year. From there, they offer a few key thoughts on what to look for in the rest of the year before turning to an important article published in Na...

Cousin Marko rejoins the podcast at long last! Jacob and Marko start off with a rousing disagreement on the Russia-Ukraine war and its import on global geopolitics and markets. From there, they throw shade at wanna be geopolitical analysts who spend too much time pontificating about risk premiums rather than using geopolitics to find opportunities. After a brief discussion of Indonesia as an examp...

Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day melodrama of geopolitics and markets to talk about how they apply geopolitical insights to identify the countries that are poised to do best for the rest of the decade…and how they make investment decisions for CI clients based on this analysis.  -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (02:15) - Strategic Wealth (14:00) - Brazil (22:30) - Spott...