The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

 Emre rejoins the podcast for a third time, offering analysis on what turned out to be an anti-climactic Erdogan victory. From there, Jacob and Emre look toward the future, offering opposing perspectives on what Erdogan’s victory means for the future of the Turkish economy and the performance of Turkish markets. If you want to see Emre’s charts, check out the pod on YouTube. -- Timestamps: (0...

Jacob welcomes Alfonso Peccatiello from The Macro Compass back onto the podcast for a conversation about Italian eating rules, the debt ceiling (should you care about it?), Chinese investment viability, and trade analysis on their favorite emerging markets.  You can find more of Alf’s work: https://www.themacrocompass.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:18) – The debt ceiling/U.S. macro (...

Rob and Jacob talk about a decisive week in equity markets and what it means for equity prices. They explore the “AI bubble” and how to separate signal from noise. From there, they turn to China to discuss unemployment and local government debt issues in the Chinese economy and why the grand reopening narrative has and will continue to be wrong. They close with discussing countries/cities at the c...

Fan-favorite Sim Tack comes back onto the show to discuss the key issues to watch ahead of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Sim and Jacob break down the status of the Ukrainian and Russian militaries and explore the politics of support for Ukraine and how much time Ukraine has to defeat Russia. Bonus tangents on whether China will invade Taiwan and why you should care that the Sahel, a desert-region of...

Kamran Bokhari of The New Lines Institute rejoins the show to offer insights on the deterioration of political stability in Pakistan…and why the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. From there, Jacob and Kamran train their sights on the South Caucasus, an underappreciated part of the world that is experiencing significant change due to geopolitical competition between Azerbaijan...

Jacob welcomes Phillip Orchard onto the podcast to analyze the results of Thailand’s recent elections. They go over the results, Phillip offers some context on how to frame current developments, and they close with thoughts about the geopolitical consequences…with expertly executed basketball metaphors -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:20) - Election Results (07:00) - Thai history (20:00) – What...

It’s been a wild week in geopolitics and markets, but Jacob and Rob have got you covered. They discuss the slew of developments this week for the first part of the podcast, before diving deeper into the instability in Pakistan, global food prices, South America, and Germany’s commitment to Ukraine.  -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:00) - Markets/geopolitics overview (24:55) - Pakistan + Glo...

Jacob welcomes back Emre Dogru to discuss their reaction to Turkey’s surprising election results. What does it mean for investors and the region, and what should you be looking for as the contest goes to a run-off in two weeks? Also, how to pronounce the letter “g” in Turkish. (You’re welcome.) -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.in...

To learn more about the Knowledge Platform, click here:  https://www.cognitive.investments/research_advice Jacob and Rob talk about the release of CI’s Knowledge Platform and some of the broader macro themes they are focusing on, before turning to an around-the-world discussion of trouble in emerging markets. They close with some thoughts on the debt ceiling, U.S. dollar, and Japanese yen. --...

Turkey's elections may not be fair, but they ~are~ free. Jacob welcomes Ryan Bohl onto the Cognitive Dissidents podcast to discuss the least volatile region in the world – the Middle East. They talk through potential scenarios on Turkey’s upcoming election before exploring multipolar developments in the Gulf and in Iran, then closing with thoughts on the future of Israel and Syria's direction movi...

Welcome to the Deep Dive! We’re diving deep into the geopolitics of Uzbekistan – one of only two double-landlocked states in the world. In other words – Uzbekistan is one of only two states in the entire world that whose access to the world’s oceans is blocked by two states in all directions. Uzbekistan is a crossroads for the Eurasian continent, wedged between numerous foreign powers, each with t...

TAKE THE SURVEY (please <3): https://forms.gle/TA2YX3GfV335Ey8d7 -- Jacob and Rob discuss why they continue to be more optimistic about U.S. macro than consensus – and the important geopolitical implications. From there they touch on Turkey’s upcoming elections and why fundamentals are more important than headlines, before closing with thoughts the differences between Chile and Colombia and the...

In this fantastic episode from early 2021, Jacob speaks with Bethany McLean, an American journalist and contributing editor for Vanity Fair magazine. She is known for her writing on the Enron scandal and the 2008 financial crisis. They talk about her latest book, Saudi America The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World . While the episode is old, the content in it is still quite fres...

Jacob and Rob are back at it after a few weeks apart. They discuss positive data they are seeing relative to current gloomy expectations, before discussing the biggest geopolitical issues of the last two weeks: Lula’s visit to China, Mexico-U.S. relations, the fate of the European Union and the Black Sea Grain Initiative. They close with some thoughts about the recent political instability in sub-...

Matt Pines rejoins the podcast to talk cybersecurity basics, including the overlooked importance of non-state actors and how that can affect near-shoring. From there, Matt and Jacob explore what changing technology can mean in a more geopolitical world, especially as it relates to Artificial Intelligence, before talking about aliens. Yup, aliens. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and...

Rob is on vacation this week, but the pod never rests! Chase Taylor of Pinecone Macro Research and Bulwark Capital pinch hits for Rob. Jacob and Chase talk about the latest developments in the U.S. banking sector before turning to commodities, especially oil and gas, to try and figure out where prices may be going in the wake of Saudi Arabia’s surprising production cut earlier this week. They clos...

Jacob welcomes back Neil Townsend ahead of the GrainFox “Before You Grow” Event, where Neil and Jacob are both speaking. Together, Neil and Jacob try to look beyond recent headlines and identify the biggest issues affecting farmers in 2023/24 as well as discussing trends in land values and food consumption. They discuss whether farmers should expect a “war premium” to return to grain prices and th...

Jacob and Rob take a step back and question some of their previous optimism about U.S. growth and the Chinese re-opening. They discuss the role of China in the global economy and wrestle with what China’s data does or doesn’t tell us about prospects for international growth and the potential impact on emerging markets and the dollar. From there, they turn to surprisingly high inflation figures in...

Jacob tackles the historic protests in Israel head-on and offers a sober take on the future of the Jewish state. -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the...

The answer might surprise you. Emre Dogru joins the show for the first time to discuss the economic and political impact of February’s tragic earthquake before turning to Turkey’s upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections and why he remains relatively optimistic about Turkish resilience in the long-term. Emre and Jacob close by discussing what might really change from a policy perspective...

It has been a deceptively quiet week in markets and geopolitics. Rob and Jacob give you the sober update you need on the SVB crisis and why they are more worried about other things, like corporate debt and a private equity bubble. From there, they tackle the big China-Russia meeting this week and engage in a wide-ranging conversation about whether China has “soft power” and whether China’s future...

Futurist and friend Garry Golden joins the podcast for a repeat appearance with an eye on how fundamental changes in technology will shape the coming decades. This is a conversation with a wide angle lens and a very long-term horizon: Jacob and Garry explore the future of energy (and debate biofuels v. hydrogen), discuss the current state of play in crypto and what the future holds for blockchain,...

Jacob and Rob discuss what happened at Silicon Valley Bank – and why CI knew there was trouble in Silicon Valley as far back as May 2022. Rather than pat themselves on the back too much, Rob and Jacob talk about the importance of focusing on the right information and explain some of the things that they are focused on today that might be the Silicon Valley Bank stories of 2024 and beyond. They clo...

Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari back to the podcast for an emergency discussion on the normalization of Saudi Arabia-Iran relations announced in China last week. They discuss the interests of all the different players and analyze what to take seriously – and what is just a PR moment. From there, they look at how different countries in the region will see the deal, including Israel, Turkey, and India...

Jacob and Rob discuss the Fed resuming its previous hawkishness and tease out underappreciated areas of the economy where more expensive capital could have consequences, especially related to U.S. energy production. From there, they take a brief look at geopolitics in Egypt and Turkey before turning to the biggest geopolitical news of the week you probably didn’t pay attention to – the rapprocheme...