The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

This episode is a crossover episode with realagriculture! RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney and Jacob sit down for an in-depth discussion on the factors influencing the Russia-Ukraine war, one year in. From leaders’ messaging, to Western involvement, to figuring out China, and finally to how it all ends, Shapiro shares his thoughts. Catch the original here: https://www.realagriculture.com/2023/02/how-...

Rob and Jacob breakdown China’s shockingly good PMI data and what it will mean for inflation and U.S. dollar strength. From there, they look closely at European economic data and walked away chastened about Europe’s prospects for the rest of year. Midway through the podcast, Rob and Jacob offer a new segment – “Anatomy of a Trade” – and discuss recent positions (long wheat, short soybeans) in CI’s...

Jacob welcomes Emily de La Bruyère on to the podcast for a robust debate about China’s global intentions and the future of U.S.-China relations. In a conversation blissfully bereft of inane chatter about spy balloons, Emily and Jacob disagree about China’s strategic intentions and the extent to which the U.S. is dependent on China. From there they discuss the critical role of Europe in the U.S.-Ch...

Jacob and Rob give a brief recap on market developments and how to think about rising inflation expectations. From there, they pivot (get it?) to discuss a strange story out of China, where coal prices and coal supply are simultaneously rising at the same time, and what that might mean for global energy markets in general. They touch on the 1-year anniversary of Russia’s war with Ukraine – and why...

How do we measure a society's ascent into modernity? Is it their ability to make cars or manufacture their own vaccines? If they lose these abilities or never progress out of the the primordial ooze of political turmoil, what does that make them? Rob and Jacob tackle these questions and much much more for this week's episode of Cognitive Dissidents. They'll revisit China’s real estate crisis, offe...

Marko Papic is back! Kyrie Irving got traded to the Mavs and it's confusing/upsetting/underwhelming. The Biden Administration is using their most expensive jet to flex on a balloon, and it signifies some important shifts in US-China relations. The topic of India is broached and we dive a bit into Ukraine! Tune in to hear more. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Introduction (1:14) - U.S. coalition against Ch...

Jacob welcomes back fan-favorite Sim Tack to discuss the future of the war in Ukraine. The next 12 months (assuming it will last that long) are going to be a test of Ukraine's resolve, Europe's willingness to isolate Russia, and the US's desire to continue providing funding/supplies. Sim and Jacob ponder the clandestine operator that bombed the Nordstream pipeline, and try to figure out whether or...

What happens when you have wage growth inflation, a consistently shrinking workforce, historically low unemployment, and surging investment from the government? How do human capital issues (e.g. disability rates, death rates, declining life expectancy) and inflation play off of one another across the markets? Rob and Jacob explore the concept of human capital from a variety of angles, starting wit...

What the heck is up with these Chinese Balloons? -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Balloons -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investment...

Myles Stapelberg, a graduate student at MIT in the Plasma Science and Fusion Center and a member of CI’s new Innovation Advisory Board, joins the podcast to give us a primer on nuclear fusion. This will be the first of a few appearances for Myles – in this initial episode, Jacob peppers Myles with questions to understand the basics of nuclear fusion – what it is, why it is important, and how soon...

Rob and Jacob start off with a general overview of this previous week in macro, then turn to what might be in store for the future. Afterwards, they turn to the Biden administration's choice to float a larger military presence around the Philippines, breaking down their deter China and unsubtly escalating the US-China trade war. Simultaneously, India is starting to align with the US more deeply ac...

Jacob is joined by David Firetsein, inaugural president and CEO of the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations. They discuss David’s professional background and the work of the foundation before diving into trust in the U.S.-China relationship and prospects for the bilateral in the year ahead. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Introduction (2:40) – David’s background (10:00) – George H.W. Bush...

Elohim Monard rejoins the podcast and pinch-hits for Rob’s usually weekly slot to address the ongoing and escalating deterioration of political stability in Peru. Elohim offers insightful perspective about what would happen if Boluarte resigned and shares disturbing allegations of terrorism and Bolivian involvement in the protests that have been circulating in Peru and that may set the stage for a...

Dario Fabbri comes back to the CD pod to talk with Jacob about the future of the European Union, Russia/China, and the political instability rocking Latin America. Italy, Germany, and France are all dealing with the War in Ukraine differently, and their responses will have a ripple effect that moves far beyond the conflict. Is this a pivotal year for the EU? Structural changes to both industry and...

Jacob and Rob get a little introspective this week, using developments in China and Vietnam to talk about how to think about the world and the struggle between having too much information and how to make sense of it all. Along the way they discuss uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine war, the ongoing protests in Peru, and why people are getting the Bank of Japan so wrong. -- CI LinkedIn: https://...

Jacob is joined by Alf and Andreas of The Macro Trading Floor to discuss the increasingly intersecting worlds of macro and geopolitics in 2023. Alf and Andreas offer differing perspective about the future of Europe, before turning to questions around how to play China’s re-opening and what the effects of a recession in the U.S. will be on U.S. equity performance. -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linked...

We're usually pretty bullish on the EU, but this week some interesting data points were released that made us rethink our usual Euro decisions. Jacob and Rob take some time to break down the data behind their decision to short the Euro, then move southwest to Latin America where commodities seem to be ignoring the wild political strife and flying to the moon. Finally, heading over to the Middle Ea...

What led to the Capital Riots on January 8th situation? Is there a significant threat to Democracy inside of Brazil? Will there be significant geopolitical fallout for Brazil's neighbors? What will Brazil's domestic fallout look like? How will this affect global markets or long positions in the Brazilian market? Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here . The Global Si...

2023 has started off with a fairly subdued international news cycle... but the world hasn't stopped turning. So, what's lurking beneath the surface? What are we missing (besides Kevin McCarthy's humiliation at the hands of his own party)? Tune in to hear the latest updates on everything going on outside of our little bubble - across Europe, Asia, Latin America and the food markets! Timestamps: 0:0...

What does the immediate future of China look like? Is China a threat to the US dominance of markets and military? John Minnich and Jacob Shapiro talk about the future of the PRC, how China and the US stack up against one another in a multi-polar world, China's struggles in the tech industry, and their ever-looming presence in neighboring countries. John Minnich is a PhD candidate in International...

What's coming for 2023? Obviously, we can't predict the future - but we can make some educated guesses about what's to come. Are we moving towards a unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar global system? Global monetary policy is moving in some novel (yet still stale) directions, globalization is evolving as geopolitics shapes international relations, and somehow Russia is still grinding away at Ukraine....

Kamran rejoins the show without much optimism to offer – for Iran, for Pakistan, or for much of the Muslim world. Central Asia, however, might be the silver lining. Timestamps: 1:22 - 32:20 – Iran 32:20 - 39:10 – Turkey 39:10 – 52:40 Islam/Pakistan 52:40 – end – Any optimism? Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here .

Jacob and Rob discuss the latest developments in geopolitics and markets. They dissect the U.S. inflation print before discussing why the euro is at a critical moment, why no one should be certain about China going into 2023, and some peripheral risks that aren’t being focused on enough. They also discuss Jacob’s savant-level soccer predictions. Timestamps: 2:00-12:05 – U.S. Macro 12:05-20:10 – Pi...

Elohim Monard joins Jacob for an emergency podcast to discuss the “dumbest coup attempt in history.” They discuss what happened this week in Peru, why it happened, and what it means for the future. Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here .

Rob and Jacob break down false narratives on U.S. macro and on German de-industrialization before taking a trip around the world and looking at key issues in the EU-Hungary conflict, and China’s COVID-19 and real estate problems. They close with some optimism about Japan and ways of thinking about demographics and globalization in a rapidly changing world. Timestamps: 1:22 - 10:40 - False Narrativ...