The Gray Report Podcast

Amid news of a powerful upswing in apartment demand, rising investor interest, and increasing consumer confidence, the rising yields for 10-year treasuries are a dark cloud that promises to make CRE investment interesting, if not straightforwardly difficult for investors looking for a larger spread between cap rates and debt costs. Likewise, CRE borrowers with loan maturities in 2025—perhaps even...

The Gray Capital team discusses investor and consumer sentiment at the start of 2025, explaining the different trends and expectations for the multifamily market and the economy. Sources discussed in this episode: John Burns Research and Consulting: “Commercial real estate optimism is rising, namely apartments” - https://jbrec.com/insights/investors-optimistic-about-commercial-real-estate-aparment...

The Gray Capital team reviews the shifts in housing and multifamily at the transition from 2024 to 2025. Sources discussed in this episode: Cushman & Wakefield: “The Tide Is Turning For CRE” - https://cw-gbl-gws-prod.azureedge.net/-/media/cw/americas/united-states/insights/research-report-pdfs/2024/122024chiefeconomistsperspectivev2.pdf?rev=14b033774366436f9b2b3e49f45c1beb&hash=4A92E193900...

Spencer Gray and Matt Bastnagel of Gray Capital discuss their expectations for the multifamily market in 2025, with comments on existing and future trends in the multifamily investment market, housing, and the economy. Download the full 2025 forecast report at graycapitalllc.com/report Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter⁠ DISCLAIMERS: This v...

We comb through the multitude of predictions for the multifamily market in 2025, with comments on apartment supply timelines, interest rates, housing demand, and other important factors. Sources discussed in this episode: Marcus & Millichap: Marcus and Millichap 2025 Multifamily Outlook - https://www.marcusmillichap.com/news-events/events/marcus-millichap-events/2025-multifamily-investment-out...

Gray Capital President and CEO Spencer Gray speaks with Chief Investment Officer Jay Reeder about the current state of the multifamily market, prospects for the future, and the impacts of supply trends, affordability and interest rates on the apartment market and housing as a whole. Sources discussed in this episode: RealPage: “Scheduled Apartment Supply Peaks by Market” - https://www.realpage.com...

As the wave of apartment supply slows, there may not be much building activity to follow, based on current permits and starts data. Low interest rates and other incentives could induce builders to begin more apartment projects, but the lengthy timeframe till completion could mean that, even though we're still well within a historic wave of apartment supply, there could be an apartment shortage in...

Lower (slightly) interest rates, improving fundamentals, positive investor sentiment, and a pending wave of loan maturities are among the factors contributing to a projected recovery in investment sales activity in 2025. For the latest multifamily news from across the internet, visit the Gray Report website: ⁠ https://www.grayreport.com/⁠ Download Gray Capital's latest report on multifamily loan m...

After 2+ years of apartment supply dominating the multifamily market, surging demand and the receding wave of newly-built apartments will bring greater balance to the market in 2025. With fundamentals so strong, multifamily investment interest should also increase in the coming year, but recent reporting has found that investment activity remains below historical averages. Stubbornly-high ten-year...

For the latest multifamily news from across the internet, visit the Gray Report website: ⁠https://www.grayreport.com/⁠ Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter⁠ DISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This video is not an offer to invest. Any offering would be m...

For lenders that are taking the "extend-and-pretend" approach, placing less emphasis on valuation declines, and waiting for lower rates, the risks have not abated, and the New York Fed has taken notice in a new report. Sources discussed in this episode: Federal Reserve Bank of New York: “Extend and Pretend in the U.S. CRE Market” - https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_repor...

Some borrowers and lenders remain under pressure with property values still down from their peak and interest rates still elevated at this point in the rate cycle, with the Department of Housing and Urban Developing proposing more relaxed loan standards, and housing continues to play a sizable role in the political conversation at the height of election season. Sources discussed in this episode: B...

Consumer sentiment is shifting as inflation expectations stabilize and more consumers expect lower interest rates in the next 12 months, but after such a long period of economic uncertainty, confidence in the economy is more difficult to find. In the multifamily market, regional differences in apartment supply continue to impact rent growth, but investment activity is poised to increase across all...

Commercial real estate investment activity has not changed much since last month's interest rate reduction from the Federal Reserve (nor has it had much time to adjust), but sales volumes will almost certainly improve in 2025, given the strong investment prospects for CRE assets at the start of a rate cutting cycle. For multifamily apartments, unambiguous signs of strong demand point to improved p...

Price growth for single family homes is  weakening  and could slow further through the end of the year, but underlying drivers of housing demand point to  stronger growth in 2025 . In the apartment market, rent growth in 2024 has followed a similar trajectory as 2023, but as new apartment supply is expected to decline through 2025 and into 2026,  continued growth  among the renter population will...

Conditions may not be perfect for multifamily investors right now, but the lending environment and supply/demand fundamentals are lining up for a significant improvements in 2025. With markets currently expecting two more rate cuts before the end of the year, cap rate-interest rate spreads may widen enough to bring more investment activity after a lengthy period in which sales volumes were half th...

In this edited replay of our live Gray Report video on the recent interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve, Spencer Gray, Jay Reeder, and Matt Bastnagel of Gray Capital discuss the current multifamily market as well as remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the September 2024 FOMC meeting and press conference. Sources discussed in this episode: Apartment List: “Apartment List&#...

With CPI showing continued  declines in inflation  this week and lower ten-year treasury yields foreshadowing an expected interest rate reduction from the Federal Reserve, investors continue to show more  activity   and   interest  in the CRE investment market, with multifamily properties specifically showing noticeable positive growth in property prices since the beginning of the year.  Rents  in...

Recent years have seen housing costs rapidly climb, and high interest rates are only part of the problem. Housing policies attuned to the benefits of additional housing supply often meet opposition at the hyper-local level, but policymakers are becoming increasingly more attentive to the ways in which deregulation can help solve the housing affordability crisis and create more housing supply. Mult...

The multifamily market continues to work through historic amounts of new apartment supply as the end of peak leasing season approaches, and rent growth could remain below average through the end of this year. At the same time, cap rate estimates suggest higher investor demand moving forward, particularly when factoring in a more favorable debt environment, and persistent housing demand is expected...

With the Democratic National Convention bringing increasing attention to the policy platform of presidential candidate Kamala Harris, the Gray Capital team breaks down her comments on the economy and housing made during a campaign stop several days before the convention. Sources discussed in this episode: The New York Times: “U.S. Added 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than Reported Earlier” - https://www.nytim...

While recent stock market volatility brought about strident calls for relief from the Fed, longer-term trends like the steadily lower yields for Ten-Year Treasuries since May, consistently lower inflation numbers since March, and a slowing labor market are equally if not more persuasive indicators that an interest rate reduction would be appropriate. CRE sales remain subdued, but there are growing...

Weaker  jobs numbers , rising  Japanese interest rates ,  AI bubble fears , and election-year uncertainty are among the many factors posited as the cause of the stock market's steep declines this week, and the lengthy period of  elevated interest rates  in the United States has helped create this fragile economic environment more vulnerable to recession. A major economic downturn would be keen...

In the multifamily market, rents growth continues to be sluggish, but growing signs of apartment demand support the long-term health of the sector. In the broader housing market, household growth and pent up demand are bracing against affordability barriers like high interest rates. Sources discussed in this episode: MSCI - "As Fed Rate Hopes Shift, So Too Does Real-Estate Sentiment" - h...

Single family homes prices are as high as they've ever been, but home sales are low. High interest rates have suppressed both multifamily and single family building, and lack of housing supply has led to declining affordability and a sustained housing deficit. There is significant pent up demand in the housing market. In both single-family and multifamily markets, this extended period of unusu...