The Gray Report Podcast

The broader commercial real estate landscape could see further pricing volatility, especially as distress levels tick upward and financing challenges persist. Multifamily, however, remains more stable, but current, more modest rent growth trends could be a challenge for markets/regions still working through the historic wave of apartment development. Many investors are looking past the current env...

Gray Report host Spencer Gray speaks with guest Paul Fiorilla, Director of Research at RealPage, about the big picture trends in housing and the economy, with insightful conversation about housing affordability, single-family rentals, macro-economic developments, and the multifamily market. Yardi Matrix: https://www.yardimatrix.com/ Yardi Matrix Research: https://www.yardimatrix.com/Publications D...

Signs of a softening for-sale home market are making some worry about a larger economic downturn, and apartment rent growth has faltered, growing less this year than in the past. That being said, apartment market performance varies considerably from region to region. Midwest and Northeast markets have rent growth close to 3-3.5%, while the South and West are less than 1% (and sometimes negative)....

With earnings reports from major apartment REITs sharing a similar theme of higher-than-expected performance, the multifamily investment market could heat up in the second half of the year. Expectations for interest rates, however, are less-than-optimistic, with the Federal Reserve "grappling with uncertainty" as multifamily buyers and borrowers—some of whom are approaching distress—are...

Rental housing continues its extreme affordability compared to homebuying costs; apartment absorption has skyrocketed to levels close to the heady, white-hot apartment market of 2021; and multifamily construction activity is lower, coming into balance with demand. Despite the positive implications of these trends for multifamily investors, apartment sales activity remains relatively low, and rent...

Gray Report host Spencer Gray speaks with guest Carl Whitaker, Chief Economist at RealPage, about the latest housing market data and information and how the RealPage research team processes this information to generate their analysis and insights on the future of the apartment market. RealPage link: https://www.realpage.com/ . RealPage Analytics Blog: https://www.realpage.com/analytics/ Download G...

The hesitancy and uncertainty of the current moment have contributed to slightly lower rent growth in the apartment market and an increase in renewals as operators prioritize resident retention, but in many midwestern markets, rent growth has been robust as apartment supply trends normalize. Sources discussed in this episode:The Wall Street Journal: “Trump’s China Deal Makes Sense. How He Got Here...

Gray Report host Spencer Gray speaks with guest Chris Nebenzahl, VP of Rental Research at John Burns Research and Consulting, about the macro forces driving the rental housing market in the United States. John Burns Research and Consulting Link: https://jbrec.com/Download Gray Capital's latest report: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/midwest-report/⁠Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter h...

Are CRE and multifamily investors prepared for higher-for-even-longer interest rates? The Fed's decision to maintain the current level of the federal funds rate is no surprise, but this does not eliminate the challenges that persistently high interest rates have brought. The multifamily market may be the best-positioned CRE sector in the current economic environment, but many apartment operato...

Amid the prospect of a declining economy, investors have not withdrawn their interest in the multifamily market. The substantial momentum of apartment demand is promising news for a more balanced market, but multifamily performance will continue to vary among different markets. Sources discussed in this episode:The Conference Board: “US Consumer Confidence Plunged Again in April” https://www.confe...

Sources discussed in this episode:CBRE: “Multifamily Buyer & Seller Sentiment Improves in Q1” - https://www.cbre.com/insights/briefs/multifamily-buyer-and-seller-sentiment-improves-in-q1RealPage: “Have Multifamily Permits and Starts Hit a Turning Point in the Cycle?” - https://www.realpage.com/analytics/march-2025-multifamily-permit-update/MSCI: “An Inconvenient Call: Capital Calls During a Cr...

The dramatic swings of the stock market have subsided, but in this still-volatile environment, the stability and positive momentum in the multifamily market stands out. As the historic wave of new apartment supply slowly subsides, midwestern markets with steady, growing economies have emerged as rent growth leaders, and this strong performance is likely to continue given current apartment supply t...

In the space of a week, the Trump administration's tariff policies set off a stock market downturn and spurred expectations of a recession before the President Trump announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs, sending markets soaring upwards again. With recent reports on the apartment market showing record levels of demand in Q1 of 2025 along with a reduction in apartment supply, there's som...

Recent apartment performance suggests that 2025 rent growth is continuing the lower-than-average trends from 2024, but given the slowdown in apartment construction and the anticipated drop in new multifamily supply in 2026, owners and investors with a long-term strategy could see some significant opportunities emerge in this transitionary period. Download Gray Capital's latest report: ⁠https:/...

Data on multifamily loan delinquencies and special servicing shows a slow buildup throughout 2024 that could lead to greater distress in 2025, which is particularly relevant given the challenges expected for multifamily operations with apartment supply still elevated and economic uncertainty putting downward pressure on rent growth. better prospects moving forward which could create investment opp...

New data on investor sentiment shows optimism in the multifamily market, but given the lag between fast-moving economic developments and the Jan.-Feb. time period when the data was gathered, some of this investor enthusiasm may be blunted in light of the recent volatility. That being said, strong fundamentals and improving long-term rent growth trends have been consistent in the multifamily market...

In this webinar replay, Spencer Gray and Matt Bastnagel of Gray Capital discuss key trends for housing demand and construction activity, growing apartment investment activity, and the increasing multifamily investment opportunities in 2025.Download the full report at graycapitalllc.com/window DISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertain...

The multifamily market looks forward to strengthening fundamentals in 2025 as the apartment supply wave recedes while housing demand remains consistently high. Recent tariffs may not change these dynamics in the near-term, but higher materials and construction costs could move the market from a supply wave into a supply shortage, bringing rent growth much closer to historical averages after ~18 mo...

As multifamily starts continue to decline (far more than single family home starts) and both housing demand in general and apartment demand specifically show consistent strength, the case for multifamily asset strength continues to improve. Despite a recent decrease in 10-year treasury yields, elevated interest rates continue to inject a level of uncertainty into the market, but this same uncertai...

Apartment fundamentals continue to improve, with multiple data sources sharing a broad consensus of improving demand. Additionally, recent reports project a considerable drop-off in newly-delivered apartments in 2025 and continuing into 2026. As this steady, elevated apartment demand meets a shrinking amount of new supply, we could see noticeably higher rent growth in 2025 and 2026. Sources discus...

Learn about Gray Capital's latest multifamily deal for accredited investors: https://www.graycapitalllc.com/walcott/Download Gray Capital's latest report: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/report/⁠ Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter⁠ DISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/enter...

Investor sentiment in the multifamily market has settled into much the same place that it was at the start of 2024, but crucial improvements in multifamily fundamentals have driven more interest in multifamily investment in 2025, despite the added weight of higher-for-longer interest rates. Sources discussed in this episode: NMHC: “Survey of Quarterly Apartment Conditions” - https://www.nmhc.org/r...

Multifamily investment optimism persists, but expectations have cooled somewhat since late 2024. Persistently-high ten-year treasury yields have changed the prevailing assumptions about interest rates and the multifamily lending market, with higher-for-longer expectations taking hold, moderating the previous optimism about the multifamily investment market, but even if the lending environment rema...

Amid the steady flow of executive orders from the new Trump administration, there remains some lingering uncertainty about the direction of the economy, but nothing that has overcome the prevailing economic optimism presently. The apartment market, while still working through a massive wave of new supply, has a clear positive trajectory for 2025, backed by high housing demand and an interest rate...

Population growth, inflation, and increasing demand for apartments point to continued economic heat at the start of 2025, but the pressures of debt costs have also risen as the CRE market comes to terms with the prospect of continued high interest rates. Sources discussed in this episode: Bureau of Labor Statistics: “Consumer Price Index, Dec. 2024 (up 2.9% YoY)” - https://www.bls.gov/news.release...