The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy

With the S&P 500 rallying to 7,511 and the Dow at 52,000, you'd expect inflation expectations to be rising. But the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has actually ticked down to 2.29 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack what the Federal Reserve makes of this disconnect — whether falling breakevens signal a darkening growth outlook beneath the equity rally, and why the Fed might care more about this metri...

The Federal Reserve is watching a subtle but dangerous signal: consumer inflation expectations are rising even as core inflation moderates. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the May CPI print and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which hit 2.32 percent on June 15. They explain why the Fed cares more about what people think inflation will be than what it is today — and how that shapes...

With the May CPI print showing a 4.2% annual increase, the Federal Reserve is confronting a persistent source of price pressure that doesn't appear in the headline number: wage inflation. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest Employment Cost Index data and the Atlanta Fed's wage tracker to explain why services inflation remains stubborn even as goods prices cool. They discuss how the Fed is weighing...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — the longest stretch in modern history. But in recent weeks, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury spread has narrowed to just a few basis points. On this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack what a potential uninversion means for the Fed's next move. They discuss the historical track record of curve uninversions as recession...

The small-cap index is up 3.1% in the past five days, and the Fed is paying close attention. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the rally in the Russell 2000 matters for monetary policy—especially when the ten-year yield is falling and energy-driven wholesale inflation is running hot. They walk through the historical signal in small-cap leadership, what it says about credit conditions...

The Russell 2000 is up over 3% in the last five days while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq drift sideways or dip. Lucas and Luna dig into why small caps are suddenly outpacing large caps, what the Fed sees in this rotation, and whether it signals genuine confidence in a soft landing or just a short-covering bounce in the most battered corner of the market. They look at the rate picture: the ten-year yield...

In episode 51 of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna break down what the Fed actually focuses on in the May CPI report — not the headline 4.2% number making the news, but the shift in core services ex-housing and the unexpected jump in used car prices. They connect the inflation data to the Fed's neutral rate debate, the ECB's rate hike, and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticking up...

With the effective fed funds rate at 3.63% and inflation running hot at 4.2%, the Federal Reserve faces a tricky question: how high is 'high enough'? In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the neutral rate of interest — R-star — has become the Fed's obsession in mid-2026. They explore how the post-pandemic economy, energy shocks, and structural changes have likely pushed R-star higher, com...

In episode 49 of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna drill into a single, surprising data point: the UK economy shrank 0.1 percent in April, even as global energy prices surged and the ECB hiked rates for the first time since 2023. They explore why the Fed is quietly watching this—not out of sympathy for Britain, but because UK inflation expectations often lead US ones by about six months....

Episode 48 of The Federal Reserve Podcast examines the European Central Bank's surprise rate hike on June 11, 2026 — its first since 2023 — and what it means for the Fed. Hosts Lucas and Luna break down how the Iran conflict is driving energy costs, pushing ECB to act while the Fed stays patient. They explore the divergence in monetary policy, the impact on the dollar and U.S. import prices, and w...

Episode 47 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo examines how the European Central Bank's surprise rate hike on June 11, 2026—the first since 2023—changes the calculus for the Federal Reserve. Lucas and Luna break down the energy-price shock behind the ECB's move, why it pressures the Fed to stay hawkish, and what the 10-year breakeven inflation drop to 2.29% says about market expectations....

The May CPI print hit 4.2 percent year-over-year, the highest in three years. But Lucas and Luna look beneath the headline number at what's really worrying the Fed: the gap between 4.2 percent and core CPI at 3.6 percent is almost entirely energy. They trace how the Iran war surcharge is feeding through wholesale prices, why the ECB just hiked for the first time since 2023, and whether the Fed is...

With wholesale prices jumping 1.1% in May and consumer inflation hitting 4.2%, Lucas and Luna drill into a specific Fed headache: the producer price index is flashing signals the CPI doesn't capture. They unpack why the PPI surge matters more than the headline CPI number, how energy costs are reshaping the Fed's rate path, and why the ECB's rate hike today adds pressure on the Powell Fed. Plus, th...

Today Lucas and Luna dig into the Fed's focus on consumer inflation expectations, especially after the May CPI print showed 4.2% annual inflation – the highest in three years. They explain why the central bank pays more attention to how households and businesses think about future inflation than current CPI data, and how this shapes rate decisions. Drawing on the latest New York Fed household surv...

On June 10, 2026, the May consumer price index landed at 4.2 percent annual inflation — the highest in three years. Lucas and Luna break down exactly what the Fed sees in that number: which components are sticky, which are transient, and why the bond market's reaction (ten-year breakevens actually dipped) suggests the central bank might not need to hike. They look at the split between core service...

The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations dropped last week showing household financial worries at their highest since July 2022. Lucas and Luna dig into the numbers: the share of households expecting to be worse off a year from now, the spike in perceived difficulty accessing credit, and what these soft sentiment readings mean for the Federal Reserve's policy path heading into the June F...

Lucas and Luna preview the May jobs report due this Friday, June 12, 2026. They dig into the ADP private payrolls number of 122,000, the surprising strength in services hiring, and what the Fed's focus on wage growth means for the interest rate outlook. They also discuss why the New York Fed's household survey showing rising financial anxiety complicates the narrative. A focused, data-driven conve...

Episode 40 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo digs into the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations released June 8, 2026, which showed household financial worries at their highest since July 2022. Lucas and Luna examine what the Fed makes of the disconnect between a still-strong labor market and rising consumer anxiety. They discuss the survey's specific numbers—like the 11.5% pro...

On this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household financial worries at their highest since July 2022. They connect the anxiety to the consumer spending data the Fed is watching—and why even strong jobs numbers may not be enough to keep confidence from cracking. Lucas explains the c...

The May CPI report showed core services inflation ticking up again, and the Fed is paying close attention. Lucas and Luna break down why services inflation is stickier than goods inflation, what the latest data says, and how the Fed's policy path might be affected. They discuss the role of housing costs, the impact of tariffs on services, and what the breakeven inflation rate signals about market...

Episode 37 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo dives into the latest tariff escalation announced June 4—fresh U.S. tariffs on 60 economies over forced labor trade practices. Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed is watching this more closely than the headline inflation numbers, how it could feed into sticky core services inflation, and what the bond market's flat 5 percent long-term yield...

The U.S. just proposed fresh tariffs on 60 economies over forced labor trade practices. Lucas and Luna break down why the Federal Reserve cares about a trade policy move that isn't monetary policy at all. They explain the tariff-inflation feedback loop, how a 3.62 percent federal funds rate interacts with rising import costs, and what the core PCE reading of 129.6 tells us about whether the Fed ca...

Episode 35 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna drill into core services excluding housing — the inflation component the Fed’s own research says is most tied to the labor market. With CPI core rising to 335.4 and the 10-year breakeven stuck at 2.36, they explore why the Fed is watching wage growth in low-productivity service sectors, how the May jobs report will shape the Ju...

With the May jobs report due Friday and long-term unemployment already trending up, Lucas and Luna unpack what the Fed is actually looking for in the payrolls data. They argue that the headline number matters less than the composition: full-time versus part-time jobs, labor force participation among prime-age workers, and the stubborn rise in the long-term unemployed. Using the latest ADP print of...

Episode 33 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo drills into the surge in long-term unemployment — workers jobless for 27 weeks or more. With the May jobs report due tomorrow and the rate of people out of work for half a year rising even as headline payrolls look solid, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed watches this metric as a signal of labor market scarring. They connect it to the Fed'...