The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy

Lucas and Luna dive into the Federal Reserve's quiet focus on the duration of unemployment, not just the headline jobless rate. With long-term unemployment surging to levels not seen since the 2010s, they unpack why this metric matters more than the monthly payrolls number. Using data from the latest JOLTS report and the upcoming May jobs report, they explain how the Fed uses the share of workers...

Episode 31 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo dives into a less-noticed but critical data point: the surge in long-term unemployment. With job openings at 7.6 million and private payrolls adding 122,000 in May, you might think the labor market is tight. But Lucas and Luna examine the rising share of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more—a metric the Fed watches closely for signs of stru...

Episode 30 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna drill into the surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million in April, the highest in nearly two years, and what that really means for the Fed's next move. They parse the ADP private payrolls number for May (122,000, stronger than expected), and connect it to the Fed's preferred Core PCE inflation reading still running above t...

Lucas and Luna dig into today's ADP payrolls report—122,000 private-sector jobs added in May, stronger than expected—and ask what the Federal Reserve makes of a labor market that keeps churning even as the fed funds rate sits at 3.62 percent. With job openings surging to 7.6 million in April and core PCE inflation still above target, they explore why the Fed seems content to hold rates steady rath...

The two-year Treasury yield is 83 basis points higher than the ten-year. Historically, that kind of inversion has been a recession warning. So why is the Federal Reserve signaling it's not concerned? In this episode, Lucas and Luna drill into the specific mechanics of this inverted curve, looking at how post-pandemic term premiums, global demand for short-dated paper, and the Fed's own balance-she...

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest JOLTS data showing 7.6 million job openings in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years. They discuss what this means for the Fed's rate path, wage pressures, and why the labor market is defying expectations of a slowdown. With the fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and core PCE at 3.3 percent, the hosts explore the tension between tight labor and sticky inflation...

Lucas and Luna dig into the June 2026 energy inflation spike tied to the Iran conflict. With the average US household spending $450 more on gas and energy, and core CPI running at 3.3%, the hosts explore why the Fed can't just raise rates to fix supply shocks. They discuss how the Fed's preferred PCE gauge captures this differently than CPI, why Chicago Fed President Goolsbee called energy inflati...

Inflation is still running above the Fed's target — core PCE hit 3.3% annualized in April. But the component that has the Fed's attention isn't shelter or services. It's energy. This episode unpacks why gasoline and heating oil are uniquely dangerous for monetary policy: how they feed into inflation expectations, why the Fed can't ignore them even though they're volatile, and what the Iran war's $...

Lucas and Luna break down why the Federal Reserve is zeroing in on a specific labor market metric: the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers. With the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.64% and core PCE inflation at 3.3%, the hosts explain how this single number — which has dropped from 2:1 to 1.2:1 — could determine whether the Fed cuts rates in 2026. They discuss recent comments from Minneapolis Fe...

Oil prices have surged over 20% since the Iran conflict escalated, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge just hit 3.3%. Lucas and Luna dig into why the central bank can't ignore energy-driven inflation the way it could in 2022. They examine how the current spike differs from the Ukraine shock—tighter labor markets, less headroom on rates, and a Fed that's already stuck at 3.64%. They also unpack...

The Iran conflict has pushed average US household energy costs up by $450 a year, and the Fed is taking notice. In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine how the war-driven energy inflation complicates the Fed's rate path. With core PCE at 3.3% and the fed funds rate stuck at 3.64, energy has become the wildcard. We discuss why Chicago Fed President Goolsbee flagged pe...

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge hit 3.3% in April, but energy inflation is running even hotter due to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed can't ignore energy passthrough into core services, and how the 10-year breakeven at 2.39% signals stubborn expectations. Plus: why the 4.45% 10-year yield and 3.64% Fed funds rate create a political tightrope for Chair Warsh. #FederalRe...

The ten-year Treasury yield is hovering at 4.45 percent despite sticky core inflation at 3.3 percent, a flat fed funds rate at 3.64, and rising energy costs from the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna unpack the structural forces pinning down long-term rates: foreign central bank demand, pension fund duration hedging, and the market's belief that the Fed won't hike further. They also explore what would...

Episode 19 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna examine why the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the widening spread between German and Italian bond yields. With the ECB vowing to do 'what is necessary' to tame inflation, the risk of fragmentation in European sovereign debt markets could spill over to U.S. financial conditions. Lucas explains how the ECB's Transmission...

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has held rates at 3.64% for months, but a new headache is emerging: energy inflation. While core PCE landed at 3.3% as expected, persistent fuel and utility costs are complicating the Fed's path. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC on Thursday that energy inflation has been 'more persistent than expected.' In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why ene...

In episode 17 of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — the core PCE — which hit an annual rate of 3.3% in April, in line with expectations. They explore why the Fed remains stuck at a flat 3.64% rate despite sticky inflation, how energy prices are complicating the picture, and what the ten-year breakeven inflation rate dropping to 2.39% signals ab...

Consumer sentiment just hit an all-time low in May 2026, yet the Federal Reserve is holding rates steady at 3.64 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect: why the Fed focuses on hard data like core PCE and wage growth rather than sentiment surveys. They examine how monetary policy works through financial conditions and the real economy, and why the Fed can afford to wait. Plus, an update on s...

Consumer sentiment just hit a record low for the second month in a row. Normally, that would put the Fed under pressure to cut rates. But with core CPI still climbing and the labor market tight, the Fed Funds rate sits at 3.64 percent with no move in sight. Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed is looking past the sentiment numbers — and what would actually force Chair Kevin Warsh to act. They wal...

Lucas and Luna examine how the escalating trade war and Iran conflict are complicating the Fed's inflation fight. With core CPI at 335.4 and the ten-year breakeven rate at 2.40%, the bond market is signaling persistent price pressures. The hosts dissect why Chair Kevin Warsh is stuck at 3.64% while tariffs and supply shocks are creating a 'stagflation-lite' scenario. They also explore the divergen...

The ten-year Treasury yield is sitting at 4.50 percent, but core inflation is still running hot and consumer sentiment just hit a fresh record low. So why isn't the bond market pushing yields higher? Lucas and Luna dig into the numbers: the ten-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.40 percent, the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.64, and the surprising calm in long-term yields. They look at what the b...

The Russell 2000 has surged 3.4 percent in the past five days, while the S&P 500 gained just 1 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack why small caps are suddenly leading—and what it means for the Fed's next move. With the federal funds rate stuck at 3.64 percent and core CPI still creeping up, the market is betting that rate cuts are coming, but the data tells a different story. They drill into the mechan...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising paradox: as the AI economy booms, blue-collar wages are rising faster than white-collar ones—and the Fed is stuck at 3.64% while inflation creeps higher. Using fresh CPI and PCE data, they explore why this shift complicates the Fed's rate path, and why the bond market is sending mixed signals with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.56% eve...

The AI economy is rewriting the American Dream, and blue-collar workers may be the biggest winners. Lucas and Luna dig into new data showing a surge in wages for jobs like electricians, machinists, and warehouse technicians, even as white-collar coding roles face pressure. They connect the trend to the Fed's rate dilemma: with core CPI still sticky at 335.4 and the ten-year breakeven inflation rat...

The Fed has held the federal funds rate at 364 for months, but inflation isn't cooperating. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest CPI and PCE data to understand why core inflation is still rising, what the bond market is signaling, and how the war in Iran is complicating the Fed's outlook. They discuss the gap between headline and core CPI, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate tickin...

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the puzzle of the Fed holding its policy rate at 3.64 percent while both CPI and core CPI ticked up in April. They explore what that 0.3 percent monthly core CPI increase means for the Fed's credibility, how the bond market is signaling via the two-year Treasury yield hovering at 3.59 percent, and why the 10-year breakeven inf...