The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy

On June 25, 2026, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge hit 3.4% year-over-year, matching the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna break down what that number actually tells us: the composition of core PCE, why services inflation is stubborn, and how the Fed is interpreting this data ahead of its July meeting. They explore the gap between headline and core, the role of housing and healthcare s...

Core PCE hit 3.4% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna break down why this number matters more than CPI, what it tells us about sticky services inflation, and how the Fed is likely to respond. They dig into the components—housing, healthcare, financial services—and what the data says about the Fed's credibility on its 2% target. No hot takes, just a clear-eyed look at the Fe...

Episode 80 of The Federal Reserve Podcast examines a dilemma the FOMC hasn't publicly squared: the May core PCE reading hit 3.4 percent, the highest since October 2023, just as the Strait of Hormuz shipping channel shows fragile signs of reopening after a U.S.-Iran deal. Lucas and Luna walk through why a supply-side shock from energy routes could make the Fed's inflation forecasts even harder to t...

Episode 79 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo breaks down the May 2026 core PCE reading of 3.4% — the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna examine why the Fed's preferred inflation gauge continues to understate services inflation, focusing on the narrow basket of imputed prices and lagging rent adjustments. They discuss how owner's equivalent rent and medical services skew the metri...

Episode 78 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. As of June 27, 2026, the Fed faces a new complication: energy prices are climbing again, just as core PCE hits 3.4 percent—the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna break down the May core PCE print, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate dipping to 2.20 percent, and what the Strait of Hormuz tensions mean for the Fed's path forward. They...

Core PCE inflation hit 3.4% in May, the highest since October 2023, just as the Fed signals rate cuts later this year. Lucas and Luna unpack the May Core PCE number, what it means for the Fed's credibility on inflation forecasting, and why the FOMC might still cut rates despite sticky inflation. They explore the Fed's own admission that its models have trouble predicting inflation, and whether the...

On June 25, 2026, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — core PCE — hit 3.4 percent, the highest since October 2023. This came just weeks after the FOMC released new quarterly forecasts that projected core PCE ending 2026 at 2.5 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the widening gap between what the Fed predicts and what the data actually shows. They look at the specific components driving sticky inflat...

On June 25, 2026, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge showed core PCE hitting 3.4%, the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna dig into this specific number: why it's sticky, what it tells us about services inflation versus goods disinflation, and how the FOMC might react at the next meeting. They connect the data to the 4.39% ten-year yield and the flat Fed funds rate at 3.63%, asking whether...

Episode 74 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. With core PCE hitting 3.4% in May — the highest since October 2023 — Lucas and Luna dig into why the Fed's inflation forecasts have consistently undershot. They examine the sticky services component, the fading impact of goods disinflation, and whether the FOMC's reaction function is behind the curve. Using fresh data from the June 25, 2026 m...

With the FOMC holding rates steady at 3.63 percent, Chair Kevin Warsh surprised markets this week by citing international spillovers as a key risk. Lucas and Luna break down what Warsh actually said during the June 2026 press conference, why the Fed is now watching events like the Venezuela earthquakes and Iran's Hormuz threats, and how a potential oil supply shock could complicate the inflation o...

The Fed has cut rates to 3.63 percent, but services inflation remains stubbornly above pre-pandemic norms. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the May CPI data, where services prices rose 0.3 percent month-over-month while goods prices actually fell. They explore why the Fed is more worried about supercore services inflation than headline numbers, and what the ten-year breakeven rate dropping...

Episode 71 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo examines the recent surge in factory job cuts, which according to S&P Global neared levels seen during the financial crisis and Covid. Lucas and Luna discuss what this signals about the broader economy, how the Fed interprets the data, and why it may be a lagging indicator rather than a harbinger of recession. They also connect the cuts to the...

Factory job cuts in June 2026 neared levels last seen during the financial crisis and Covid. Lucas and Luna unpack what that data means for the Federal Reserve's policy path. With the ten-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.23 percent and the effective federal funds rate at 3.63 percent, is the labor market softening enough to justify a cut? They drill into the S&P Global report on manufacturing la...

Nevada's job market is booming, with unemployment at 3.7% and construction employment up 8% year-over-year. But the Fed is watching closely: could this hot state's labor market signal broader inflation pressures? In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the data behind the headlines, from Las Vegas casino hiring to Reno logistics centers. They explore why the Fed's new chairman Kevin Warsh might...

As the Federal Reserve navigates a complex economic landscape, one state is drawing unusual attention from policymakers: Nevada. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine why the Fed is closely watching job growth in Nevada, a state whose economy is heavily tied to tourism and hospitality. With the Fed funds rate steady at 3.63% and core CPI still sticky, Nevada's labor market offers clues about the...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into why the Federal Reserve is focusing on Nevada's job market as a bellwether for the broader economy. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and core CPI still elevated at 336.1, the Nevada story offers a unique lens on the labor market's strength and the Fed's next moves. They discuss how the state's reliance on hospitality and construction makes it a lead...

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna break down the FOMC's latest dot plot released after Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chairman. With the fed funds rate at 3.63% and inflation ticking up to 3.34% on CPI, the dots signal only one rate cut in 2026 — a significant hawkish shift from earlier projections. The hosts examine why the median dot moved, how the 'long-run' dots ha...

Lucas and Luna dig into an unusual headline: Nevada is the easiest state to find a job right now. With the Fed's labor market toolkit focused on national aggregates, they explore what state-level divergence means for monetary policy. The hosts discuss why the Fed's models miss local wage dynamics, how construction hiring in Las Vegas is pulling up service-sector pay, and whether the FOMC's next mo...

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into the FOMC's new liquidity tools designed to support banks facing stress from commercial real estate exposures and deposit outflows. They examine the Bank Term Funding Program 2.0 and the Standing Repo Facility enhancements announced at the June 2026 meeting, with specific numbers on usage and rates. The hosts discuss how these...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, a classic recession signal that hasn't yet delivered a downturn. Now it's starting to uninvert. Lucas and Luna examine what the Federal Reserve makes of this shift, how it ties to the current Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent, and why a steepening curve might signal something different this cycle. They break down the mechanics of term premiums, th...

In Episode 62 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into a largely overlooked factor shaping Fed policy: the housing market's role in the inflation fight. With shelter costs staying stubborn—CPI shelter up 0.4% in May and the core PCE at 129.6—the hosts explain why the FOMC's models may be underestimating how long rent dynamics will take to cool. They discuss the gap bet...

With the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63% and commercial real estate distress deepening, the FOMC is quietly rolling out a new standing repo facility designed to prevent a repeat of March 2023. Lucas and Luna break down how the facility works, why it targets smaller banks holding underwater CRE loans, and what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled in his first meeting about the central bank's willingnes...

With Kevin Warsh presiding over his first FOMC meeting as Fed chair, markets are parsing every signal. The new chair inherits an economy with sticky core CPI at 336.1 and the fed funds rate at 3.63%, while breakeven inflation is edging down. Lucas and Luna break down what Warsh's initial statements reveal about his priorities, how his views differ from Jerome Powell's, and what it means for rate p...

In Episode 59 of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna drill into a specific concern that's quietly moved up the Fed's watchlist: how falling commercial real estate values are pressuring regional banks, even as the broader economy shows resilience. They anchor on the May Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS), which showed a sharp tightening of lending standards for commercial real e...

Episode 58 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Lucas and Luna drill into the yield curve's recent uninversion after two years inverted. They break down what the shift from 4.43% on the ten-year to 3.63% on the two-year actually signals for recession risk, bank lending, and Fed policy. With the S&P 500 near 7,500 and markets pricing rate cuts, the hosts ask whether the curve is finally nor...