The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy

The Fed has a favorite inflation signal that markets watch even more closely than CPI or PCE: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate. As of July 10, 2026, that number sits at 2.24 percent, up slightly from 2.23. Lucas and Luna explain what the breakeven rate actually measures, why it's considered a 'cleaner' read on inflation expectations than survey-based data, and what the current level implies ab...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the latest labor force participation data, which has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years outside the pandemic. They explore how this trend is reshaping the Fed's inflation and rate outlook, using recent numbers like the June payrolls miss of 57,000 and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate dipping to 2.23 percent. The hosts also discuss why the Fed now foc...

In Episode 105 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising development: after years of decline, the labor force participation rate is starting to tick up. They examine what this means for the Fed's inflation fight, how it affects the Phillips curve, and why a rising participation rate could delay rate cuts. Using the latest data from June 2026—including a payro...

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed is increasingly focused on real interest rates — the nominal rate minus inflation — rather than headline CPI. With the ten-year breakeven inflation rate stuck at 2.25 percent and the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.53 percent, the real yield sits at roughly 2.3 percent, a level that historically has been restrictive...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising shift in the labor market: after months of falling participation, the rate ticked up slightly in June. They break down what the Fed sees in the details—prime-age workers returning, but older workers still on the sidelines—and why this seemingly good news complicates the rate path. With the fed funds rate at 3.63% and core PCE still sticky at 130...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — the longest stretch since the 1970s. This episode digs into why the Fed isn't ignoring it, even as many pundits have declared the yield curve 'broken' as a recession signal. Lucas and Luna walk through the mechanics of the 2-year versus 10-year Treasury spread, now at -74 basis points, and what it tells us about the market's expectations for r...

The Federal Reserve has long relied on core PCE inflation as its primary compass for rate decisions. But Lucas and Luna unpack a growing problem: the core PCE index has been rising for five straight months even as headline inflation moderates, a divergence that hasn't happened since the 1970s. They explain why core PCE is now being distorted by shelter costs that lag reality and by volatile servic...

In this 100th episode, Lucas and Luna examine how the recent drop in labor force participation to its lowest level in 50 years outside the Covid era is forcing the Federal Reserve to reconsider its rate path. With June payrolls at just 57,000 and the unemployment rate at 4.2%, the hosts discuss why a smaller workforce means the Fed can't simply rely on job creation data to guide policy. They break...

In episode 99 of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna break down why the U.S. labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years outside of the COVID era, and what that means for the Fed's interest rate path. With the June jobs report showing only 57,000 payrolls added and the unemployment rate at 4.2%, the hosts examine how discouraged workers are reshaping the Fed's...

Episode 98 of The Federal Reserve Podcast digs into a specific market signal the Fed is watching closely right now: the six-month Eurodollar futures curve. With the fed funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent and the ten-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.48 percent, the Eurodollar curve has flattened sharply — suggesting the market doubts the Fed will cut rates anytime soon. Lucas and Luna explain what E...

Lucas and Luna dive into the latest labor force participation rate drop to its lowest in 50 years outside Covid, and what that means for the Fed's rate path. They break down why workers are leaving, how the June payrolls miss of 57,000 fits, and why the Fed is stuck between inflation and a shrinking workforce. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.48%, they explore the real economy beyond the headlines....

In Episode 96 of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a single startling data point: the U.S. labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years outside of the pandemic. They discuss what's driving people out of the workforce—from long COVID to early retirement to the discouraged-worker effect—and why this matters more to the Fed than the headline payrolls mi...

The June jobs report showed payroll growth of just 57,000 and the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna break down why this number matters more than the headline suggests, what it means for the Fed's rate path, and how the falling labor force participation rate complicates the picture. They discuss the Fed's dual mandate, the disconnect between job creation and wage growth, a...

The July 2 jobs report showed payrolls growth of just 57,000 and the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2 percent. But the number that should worry the Fed most is the labor force participation rate, which fell to its lowest level in 50 years outside the pandemic. Lucas and Luna break down why this isn't just a labor market story—it's a monetary policy dilemma. When people stop looking for work, th...

In Episode 93 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine the Fed's growing concern over falling labor force participation, which hit a 50-year low in June 2026. They discuss why the drop is structural rather than cyclical, how it complicates the Phillips curve, and what it means for the terminal rate. Drawing on the latest jobs report showing only 57,000 payrolls added, th...

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna tackle a puzzle that's been quietly worrying central bankers: the labor force participation rate has dropped to its lowest level in fifty years, outside of the pandemic era. With the June payrolls report showing just 57,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate at 4.2 percent, Lucas explains why the Fed views falling participation as a...

On Episode 91 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into the one labor market number that might matter more than the headline payrolls miss: the labor force participation rate falling to its lowest in 50 years outside of COVID. They connect the July 2 jobs report — just 57,000 new jobs and unemployment at 4.2% — to the Fed's preference cascade theory of inflation, and a...

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising drop in the U.S. labor force participation rate to a 50-year low outside the pandemic era, even as payrolls growth slows to just 57,000 in June. They explore how a shrinking workforce complicates the Fed's reading of the jobs market: fewer people looking for work can mask underlying weakness and mudd...

The June 2026 jobs report landed with just 57,000 new payrolls — well below expectations — while the labor force participation rate hit a 50-year low outside the pandemic era. Lucas and Luna unpack what this miss means for the Federal Reserve's rate strategy as it heads into the July FOMC meeting. They examine why the unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent despite weak hiring, how falling participa...

The Fed has held rates steady since January, and the Russell 2000 is barely budging. Lucas and Luna dig into why small-cap stocks are stuck despite a resilient economy and what the yield curve's persistent inversion tells us about credit conditions for smaller firms. They look at the recent ADP miss—98,000 private payrolls added in June, below expectations—and what it signals about the labor marke...

The latest ADP report showed private payrolls added just 98,000 in June, well below expectations. Lucas and Luna examine what this 'miss' signals to the Federal Reserve about the labor market's trajectory, and how it fits with other data like core PCE at 3.3 percent and the ten-year yield at 4.47 percent. They discuss whether the Fed is more likely to cut rates this year or hold steady, and why jo...

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why the Federal Reserve is paying close attention to job satisfaction data. With a new survey showing that more than half of U.S. workers are 'truly satisfied' with their jobs—the highest level in decades—Lucas unpacks how the Fed uses this kind of sentiment data to gauge labor market tightness and wage pressure. T...

Lucas and Luna dig into the Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey to unpack a surprising pattern: banks aren't just tightening credit — they're shifting their preference toward higher-quality borrowers in a way that mirrors the early 2000s credit cycle. With the ten-year yield at 4.42 percent and the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent, the hosts explore what this 'preference cascade' m...

A new Gallup survey shows that 70 percent of American workers say they 'really love' their jobs — the highest level since the question was first asked in 2001. Lucas and Luna unpack why this matters for the Federal Reserve. With wage growth still sticky and quits rates elevated, the Fed is watching whether happy workers are more likely to demand raises or stick around in a tight labor market. The...

Lucas and Luna dig into how the fragile shipping recovery in the Strait of Hormuz is complicating the Fed's inflation outlook. With core PCE at 3.4 percent and breakeven inflation rising to 2.22 percent, the hosts examine why energy supply risks — not just demand-side data — are forcing the FOMC to recalibrate its forecasts. They walk through the mechanics of how a sustained disruption in the Stra...