The Dividend Cafe

The futures were pointing down 80-100 points without a lot of activity last night, yet by the early morning were pointing to a +300 point move higher. The market opened up ~400, bounced around throughout the day, and closed today down a tad. But the big tech companies were down 2-4% all day. But on the other hand, some key REIT’s, materials companies, energy names, and industrials were all up toda...

The futures opened yesterday down a pinch and reflected a down 80 or so opening for a couple hours.  By the time I went to bed U.S. futures were pointing up 100, and more interestingly, the Nikkei was up over 400 points (see why below).  I woke up to the futures pointing up 200 points at 3:30am, and the June delivery contract on WTI oil down 17% to just over $14/barrel.  (The disconnect between sh...

Last week’s national video call brought to you podcast listeners in audio form - COVID, two market phases, and what to do from here. Watch the call and follow along with the slides here - https://youtu.be/pt-wO73Y8to Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

It has been a fascinating week in the markets, with oil tanking, but the energy sector way up; with the markets up and down every day; with some bond sectors rallying, and others selling off.  Some degree of non-correlation between asset classes seems to be sneaking back into play, and non-correlation is the hallmark of normalcy.  Now, we have a long, long way to go ...  but there were interesting...

The week of April 6 was the biggest “up” week in markets on a percentage basis since 1974. Last week (with up and down volatility) was another solid up week, whereas some tempering of the prior week’s rally had been expected. Coming into this week, I certainly figured some tempering of the prior two weeks rally would not be surprising, and we dropped 500-600 points Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday’s...

The market rallied quite a bit today, coming off of the two ~600 point down days that started the week. Oil prices were up 22% (from their very low level, mind you) and they are at least now only showing the June contract vs. the delivery/storage fiasco in the May contract that was taking place Monday and Tuesday. Futures were pointing to a 250-point increase when I woke up this morning, and throu...

We cover the market, the latest in health data, plenty on housing prices, the PPP Part Two stimulus program, and oil prices - plus more Links mentioned in this episode: CovidAndMarkets.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The week went essentially much as I expected in the markets – the health data continues to point towards marked improvement, but not quite yet a full re-opening; markets did not continue the violent rally of last week, but had some modest volatility both up and down; and the economic data from March was awful, with all eyes and ears focused on where we go from here. On the week, as of press time,...

The Dividend Cafe Podcast will now add a Daily Covid and Markets reporting with the latest on the many aspects of the capital markets affected by COVID-19. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market week is cut short by the Good Friday holiday this week, but investors liked what they received out of the four days markets were open. Monday represented one of the biggest up days in market history, and Wednesday and Thursday added to the rally, with the Dow now a stunning 5,500 points off its March 23 low level (which was itself an intra-day number). No, we do not know what equities w...

As I am taping Friday morning a short while into the final market session of the week, the market is nearly flat on the week (modestly down at this point). That came with a big move up Monday, a modest move down Tuesday, a huge move down Wednesday, a decent move up Thursday, and so far, early on Friday, a “flattish” day (though off a bit – again, moving as I type). Note the theme? A “flat” week in...

As of broadcast time, the market has moved significantly higher on the week, bouncing in a meaningful way Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week (after further sell-off Monday). As I record Friday morning, the market shows down (but it is early). We all know that we don’t know what the rest of the day (or weekend) will bring. This very special Dividend Cafe (long, but I think we all have extra...

The utter insanity of today's financial markets continued in Sunday evening futures action, Monday morning futures action, and throughout the day Monday. The largest Federal Reserve announcement yet came, and plenty needs to be said about the so-called "fiscal stimulus bazooka." Today's special Dividend Cafe provides as much explanation of these crazy times as we can muster, and offers yet more pr...

There is a Friday Dividend Cafe coming – I do not know when – where the basic tone will be celebratory, and the underlying emotion will be relief. Some lift in equities, some normalization in credit, and some feeling that the worst is all behind us – that Dividend Cafe is coming. Will it be next week or months down the line? I do not know. But I look forward to writing it, and I imagine many of yo...

Join TBG Chief Investment Officer for a National Conference Call where he delves deep into the reasoning behind the massive moves in the markets over the last three weeks. Share it with your friends! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

If one looks at the rapidity with which this market has sold off, the levels to which it has sold off, and the stressors that currently exist in our financial system and society at large, there is surely a lot of anxiety and uncertainty that permeates. This special Dividend Cafe will get into a handful of things that just simply must be said, offers a podcast from our Investment Committee, and add...

It is so hard to stick to my normal Dividend Cafe format these days (not that anyone cares). I am trying to write two per week, and the markets are changing minutes after certain segments get written (or more challenging, the news itself alters or stories take on different shapes). On two days this week (Monday and Thursday) the violence of the market drops required additional email communications...

* Please go to dividendcafe.com to read this important post** I wrote an awful lot of stuff over the weekend for this special mid-week Dividend Cafe.  I wrote about the bizarre reality that with three days last week that the market was down nearly 1,000 points (Friday's was intra-day, but it did come back at the end of the day), the market was actually up 450 points last week.  I wrote about vario...

It's FRIDAY, MARCH 6 - The markets were down over 800 points early but right at this moment are down 650 points.  I have no doubt markets will move from here, and I have no idea which direction.  Big moves, in either direction, are the daily expectation right now. This week’s Dividend Cafe offers as much information, guidance, and reality as we are able to muster.  Links mentioned in this episode:...

Our Investment Committee's weekly podcast today basically delves into all things market correction, market snap-back rally, coronavirus, and the political landscape shift of the weekend. An important listen in these volatile times. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market ended the month of February with a level of pain in the markets not seen since December of 2018 (fourteen months ago). As of press time Friday morning we have experienced sell-offs every day this week, creating the worst week for markets since the financial crisis. The details are unpacked in the Dividend Cafe … The level of sell-off in the market is discussed but so are a variety of ci...

The ongoing spread of coronavirus and uncertainty surrounding such pushed markets down a thousand points on the Dow (as of press time), and brought the ten-year bond yield to very near an all-time low. This 3%+ drop in stocks brings the equity market to where it was at the beginning of the year. Bond values continue to surge, offsetting much of the equity value drop for diversified investors. In t...

We have the whole week unpacked in this week’s Dividend Cafe, and ample commentary on the Fed, earnings, politics and more. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

We cover the market action of the week (at least up until press time) this week. And yes, there are plenty of thoughts and ideas around the present investment environment ... But I also think you will find this week's Dividend Cafe to feature some longer-term reflections on the economy, on long-term challenges that drive so much economic behavior. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com...

Sometimes it is important to remember that “volatile” is not a synonym for “negative.” Volatility refers to “up and down” movement – directionless – choppy – uncertain. In this week’s Dividend Cafe we do all we need to do to understand the current market volatility, to consider the right portfolio approach to all present state of affairs, and of course to break down one of the most significant pol...