The Dividend Cafe

This week’s Dividend Cafe is a long and juicy one – lots of topics, lots of practical subjects (see list below), and plenty for the wonky types and those who loathe such verbose diversions. But what is most important to me in this week’s Dividend Cafe is that it addresses the issue I believe is most necessary for grown-ups to deal with in this day age: In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will: • Recap...

I’ll save you the play by play of what happened with futures last night and this morning, but it was pretty boring. And the markets moved higher a bit pre-market when the jobs numbers came out (see below). But what moved markets lower during trading today seems to be (and I say “seems” because it really doesn’t seem to be much of a market moving event to me, but it was perfectly time to the releas...

Futures were modestly positive all of last evening and into my morning wake-up. They turned negative a few hours before the market opened and bounced around pre-market. The market opened up a bit, then dropped a few hundred points, then bounced around throughout the day, and rallied into the close to end up +177 points on the day. Not a huge day one way or the other, but some intra-day volatility...

I woke up this morning to an overnight Nikkei that had dropped a tad, European markets down a tad, and U.S. futures down 100 points or so. Futures eased lower throughout the morning (which I might add, now total about six hours before the market opens, versus three hours on west coast – and I love it!) … The market opened down 200 and stayed in that range most of the day before petering out in the...

Market futures never did point down last evening, and I woke up very early eastern time to futures pointing up 450 points. After a cup of coffee I realized that China’s market was up a stunning 5.7% today alone. Consider this for those mystified by the actions of the U.S. stock market: the Shanghai Composite Index is now the highest it has been since early 2018. We live in crazy times. Anyways, th...

In this week's Dividend Cafe we will look at: The real lesson of 2020 so far, evidenced in Q1 being the 9th worst quarter in history, and Q2 being the 9th best quarter in history, and what behavioral lessons some investors may want to pick up from this. We do an extensive dive into what lies ahead for 2020, and our views on economic recovery, stimulus, a vaccine, volatility, and so much more. What...

The market closed the shortened holiday week up over 800 points for the week, with the market up almost 100 points today. Futures were really flat last night, and at 4:30am Eastern this morning were up over 200 points. The jobs report came at 8:30am ET and futures added on another 200 points. Markets were up 400 points at one point and moved up and down throughout the day before selling off substa...

This is the audio replay of National Call Market Outlook from TBG CIO - David L. Bahnsen. With Host Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice and Associates. Discussed is the impact of increased COVID cases in certain states on markets, and will attempt to evaluate the latest economic and investment developments, and what we are anticipating as we officially enter the second half of the year. Links mentioned i...

• Some clarification on COVID and the current media coverage • How the result of “financialization” is to ignore capital investment, and how starving the economy of capital spending deprives it of future productivity • The stress of the stress tests! • The lost decade of gold is a powerful antidote to the strange argument that central bank abuses are bullish for gold. If the last decade wasn’t the...

Futures last night really hugged around the flat line non-stop from 3pm pacific until 9pm or so when I stopped checking.  At 3am this morning they were still flat, and throughout the morning going into the market open they moved a tad lower.  The Dow got down as much as 200 points, gyrated around most of the day up and down, and then rallied the final hour of trading to close up 300 points. Links...

Market futures were pretty much flat all of last evening, and I awoke at 3:15am to a down 250 level. By the open, futures were pointing to down ~700. It opened there, got as down as -850, and closed down 700 points on the day. COVID case growth and coverage of it is a fine explanation for market volatility today, but again the performance in structured credit today – mortgages, loans, etc. – paint...

Well this was one of the crazier 24 hours in quite some time, more so for what happened last night than today. Futures opened up about 100 points last night, and slowly inched higher for the first couple hours into the evening. Around 6:30pm pacific/9:30pm eastern, my devices starting blowing up that futures had collapsed 400 points (so a net swing of over 500 points) after “White House advisor, P...

Futures were pointing down as much as ~300 points Sunday night (netted for fair value), though that number improved as the night went along. By 3:15am this morning they were pointing to a flat market open. The market traded down ~200 points early and closed up over 150 points, in a 400-point range today … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

• There is a solution of the problem of always having a reason to sell, and always having a reason to buy: It is – always having a plan … • The nation’s debt is talked about as much any topic in the political/economic sphere, but rarely talked about with any real practical sense of what the eventual possible outcomes actually look like. Today we provide five crystalized options for what eventually...

Futures overnight dipped 400 points by my bed time, were basically back to even at 3:15am, and then dipped a tad before the 5:30am release on jobless claims. That number came in at 1.5 million, and the market didn’t respond. We opened down and reached down -270 before reversing. It was a bouncy day but never was the range of movement very wide. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com The...

Futures overnight dipped 400 points by my bed time, were basically back to even at 3:15am, and then dipped a tad before the 5:30am release on jobless claims. That number came in at 1.5 million, and the market didn’t respond. We opened down and reached down -270 before reversing. It was a bouncy day but never was the range of movement very wide. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com The...

Market futures pointed down 100 last night, up 200 at 3:00 in the morning, and eventually opened dead flat. The market was quite boring most of the day, and closed down 170 points, dropping in the final hour of trading (just minutes after I told the Wall Street Journal how nice it was to be up or down less than 50 points). Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market futures last night were up 400+ points and the Nikkei in Japan soared over 1,000 points (+5%) overnight. I woke up this morning to a +520 in the Dow futures, and an hour later a report popped that futures were up “amid reports that Trump is preparing a $1 trillion infrastructure proposal.” There is one little problem with the reports that the market futures were up on reports of this infras...

Replay of National Call Market Outlook with TBG CIO and Founder, David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice Associates. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

1,800 points came off the Dow in one day, the fourth worst day of the year by the way, and while I spent significant time unpacking it, studying it, and understanding it, I did not spend any time "sweating" it.  As you will see in the content of this week's Dividend Cafe, I believe there is very little evidence of health-related issues at this time to drive markets lower (i.e. so-called "second wa...

The market declined 1,800 points today behind a conflation of factors we will unpack below. Futures were pointing to down 200 at bed time last night, were down over 500 at 3:15am, and dropped more than 850 points from then until the market open. We opened down that much, and then throughout the day saw new intra-day lows hit, as the yield curve flattened and some of the recent high flyers sold off...

The market was all over the map today, with futures up last night at bed time, flat this morning, then up, then down, etc. This is today’s intra-day chart for the Dow – a snooze fest compared to March volatility, of course, but rather substantial up/down movements as far as normal market days go, closing near low levels of the day. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup....

Is the market about to go through a period of “rotation?” Growth vs. Value, Large Cap vs. Small-Cap, Cyclicals vs. Defensives - does it even matter? Our investment committee is back together, sheltering in place at our own studio, bringing you our perspective on all these subjects and more. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market rallied another 460+ points today, and the S&P closed back where it started the year (so not quite back to its all-time high, but back to its New Years Eve level). The Dow has a little more work to do still. The entire thing is surreal. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I find it inconceivable that we will not have up and down volatility at some point in the near future. But I am not surprised by this market's resilience. The forward-looking capabilities of the market are powerful, even though they are more often subject to excess. On the downside and the upside - no perfect equilibrium can ever be found. This is why market timing is the errand of a fool. I hope...