The Dividend Cafe

The weird week in the markets doesn't change what I want to be doing with each Dividend Cafe.  As of press time, the market is up ~1,000 points on the week, with pre-market futures on this Friday pointing to a +100 point open.  The day-to-day and week-by-week movements in the market are not the subject of the Dividend Cafe, but they are what we do each Monday through Thursday at The DC Today. This...

We had an interesting week in financial markets … The Fed did exactly what they were expected to by any reasonable person – nothing more, nothing less. They acknowledged the economy is improving, they said they were “talking about talking about” slowing down their quantitative easing. And they indicated two years from now as a time where the fed funds rate may be 50 basis points higher than it is...

With the key market insights of the season, David L. Bahnsen takes questions from the public. Hosted by Scott Gamm of Strategy Associates. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

We had a reasonably boring week in the markets (as of press time, which is after the market open on Friday, the Dow is modestly down on the week but no up or down day this week was particularly significant), but it was somewhat less boring in economic news. What I want to do today is look at the variety of economic news circulating and apply a market perspective to it.  My view is very simple as t...

For now (even from my spot out of the country), I do keep my weekly streak alive with the Dividend Cafe. Going back to the week of Lehman’s bankruptcy in September 2008 I have missed just one weekly commentary, and this weekly podcast really is one of the things I love most about my job. Today’s may be a little shorter than normal, and it is primarily Fed-oriented, but I am quite happy with some o...

There is no shortage of investment symposiums to attend in my business. Whether it be events put on by the big firms I have worked for over the years (UBS, Morgan Stanley), or symposiums sponsored by various money managers and asset management firms, or just independent groups putting on their own show, I am quite sure I have attended over a hundred such events in the last two decades or so, and p...

I thought I would do something really fun with this week’s Dividend Cafe, but just as soon as I typed that I realized that, like beauty, fun is in the eye of the beholder. But what “fun” thing I was going to do was write a full recap of the recent Mauldin Strategic Investor Conference that took place from May 5 through May 14, and use that recap to capture some of the profoundly important takeaway...

David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm discuss the market happenings of the day. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Anyone who knows me personally knows that I loathe melodrama. And hopefully, anyone who has followed my writing for any period of time, especially my financial writing, knows that I hate click-bait, hype, exaggeration, dramatic hyperbole, shock and awe, and other such media-friendly tactics designed to scare, provoke, or just plain manipulate us. I believe almost every day I am writing The DC Toda...

One of the questions I get asked the most is, “what scares you right now?” Clients ask it every now and then, or some version of it, but I also get asked in various TV interviews that ever-so-compelling question, “what keeps you up at night?” There is one particular problem with the question I want to address in this week’s Dividend Cafe, and I want to provide a really thorough answer to it. What...

Latest market updates and news from David L. Bahnsen of The Bahnsen Group DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Tell me what you think about these two statements: (1) Markets are dynamic, ever-changing forces. They are never predictable, their outcomes are never assured, the inputs are constantly adjusting with the ebbs and flows of different circumstances and facts that have to be monitored, studied, and adjusted as needed. (2) There is nothing new under the sun. I believe these two statements are both tru...

This week’s Dividend Cafe took a funny twist over the last 24 hours. First, I ended up flying back to California from New York late Thursday night for a Friday matter that came up (I was supposed to fly to California on Sunday). This substantially altered my reading and writing plans for this commentary, along with work issues. On Thursday the market had a little reaction to the shocking – shockin...

Replay of our National video call, April 19, 2021, covering the market performance, energy, and potential changes to the tax code. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This week’s Dividend Cafe is going to dive into the “abnormalcy” of the economic contraction during COVID, the abnormalcy of the economic recovery we are currently in (and will be in for months to come), but then also the “normalcy” of pre-pandemic economic life, and what that means on the other side of this. I will humbly suggest that despite the changes in the economic landscape brought about by...

The title of this week's Dividend Cafe comes from one of my favorite quotes, ever. "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble.  It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." ~ Mark Twain (I attribute to Mark Twain because everyone does, but ironically given the substance of the quote, even this appears to be untrue, with most scholars believing there is no reputable source for who...

David and Scott recap Q1 2021, discuss economic outlook looking forward, and explore opportunities for investors in current markets. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The actual event that I am discussing may be totally foreign to you, despite the fact that it has dominated the financial news for five or six days. There is a good reason for this if, indeed, it is true for you. The event has proven to be a really weak “news” story in my mind (not for lack of trying), but even apart from the broader news hype, it has further proven to be a weak “financial news” s...

Who would have guessed that at the one-year mark of the worst market drop since the Great Financial Crisis, one of the hottest topics in financial markets is whether or not we are in a “bubble.” Am I the only one that sees a tiny bit of irony here? A year ago, the conversation was entirely focused on whether or not millions of American people were going to die, how long the entire American economy...

Zoom Replay of National Call Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

If you want a better understanding of the present state of the equity land, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. If you want a realistic assessment of the risk of correction, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. If you want to know what to make of higher bond yields, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. And if you want more clarity on what the Fed is doing and not doing, this is a good Dividend...

Both anniversaries are vitally important and warrant special attention. One of them may surprise you or at least represent something you have forgotten. Hopefully, that will all change after you hear this podcast. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Everything is about the Fed, bond yields, and inflation right now.  Sometimes I mean that as if I am describing what really does matter, and other times I am just describing what "all the rage" is about.  "Everything is about" may mean what "everything is about," or it may mean what "everyone is talking about."  In this case, we have the weirdest of circumstances where "everyone" is talking about...

Investing options are growing at a rapid pace with some what were once fringe investment areas are now making it mainstream to the tune of tens of billions or dollars. With what is happening, what does today's investor do or not do to make wise investment choices? Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

So when I launched The DC Today, it freed me up to use Dividend Cafe to be more “singular topic” focused, and I really do believe that makes for a better commentary. I have mostly not used this weekly commentary for “ad hoc” market discussion or current events, and I think this approach has enabled me to go a little deeper into topics that I believe are essential in their relevance. I plan to cont...