The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40EOqh5 First of all, congratulations to the Huskies of the great state of Connecticut (where some of TBG’s favorite clients reside) on their NCAA championship. I assure you it was the news story today that deserved the most press coverage. It was a pretty boring day in the market, and all the news wanted to talk about was the Trump court appearance and such. Bond...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ZFg4ZY So congratulations to the San Diego State Aztecs and the UConn Huskies, who will go head to head tonight for the NCAA college basketball championship. It has been a tournament to remember – thrilling upsets and last-second shots – and enough investment lessons to generate a whole Dividend Cafe! The written is here, the video is here, and the podcast here....

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40OgHkJ Any time I use some sort of sports analogy in the Dividend Cafe I get a lot of emails from people who connect to it and say they love it, and then I get emails saying, “come on, I don’t care about sports – please just stick to the market!” I am never offended or bothered – Abraham Lincoln had a line about pleasing people once – but I am also not swayed. If...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3G3Vdsa So the market went up again today, went negative in the middle of the day, then rallied back in the second half of the day (see chart below). The FDIC is looking to move the cost of the recent bank failures to the banks that didn’t fail (read: to their customers), Sen. Joe Manchin has decided he regrets his support of the “Inflation Reduction Act” atrocity...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JRB2yV I read an interesting line from an analyst I read daily in my morning research this morning … “if the bulls are to reclaim control of this market, beta likely needs to reassert itself; hasn’t happened yet.” Of course, this sort of begs the question – bulls of what? Well, if one means “the market index,” then they have essentially said, “if those bullish fo...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TNPuMZ There are two things I think I have amply covered over the last few weeks: (1) Equity market volatility; and (2) the Bond market rally. Both things are true – equities have been all over the map, up and down, even as they are mostly flat (or actually slightly up) since all this banking commotion began. And bonds are indeed up a great deal, with the 1-year...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3noFOMJ There is a lot today on Housing, which is a matter of practical significance to a lot of you, and there is a lot today on the banking mess and the Fed, which is also connected to Housing. So I think you’ll find today’s missive practical and interesting. After reports throughout the weekend that both First Citizens Bank and Valley National Bank were bidding...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JF6mRh We are in a moment of “volatile Sundays” in the financial services industry. This is when market actors, policymakers, movers, and shakers have big news to announce on a Sunday in an effort to “beat markets opening”, or as Ben Bernanke once joked that his memoir would be called, “before Asia opens.” I lived through it in spades in 2008 – Fannie and Freddie...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TGllyM That the market gave up -500 points in fifteen minutes at the end of the day yesterday but then rebounded +500 points this morning is, to me, validation of my theory regarding yesterday: that it was a closing speculative trade. Fundamentally, the facts on the table (where they are known) are not really subject to much debate. So an interesting thing happen...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TAGcni All that matters today is what the Fed did and said. And what they did was raise rates a quarter point. And what they said was that “financial conditions have tightened” (well, there you go). And he said that these tighter financial conditions and tougher lending criteria from banks will “factor into their policy decisions” (phew). As for a First Republic...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JvZllP I imagine it is quite likely that the bond market has seen its highs in bond yields for quite some time to come (across the whole yield curve). The 10-year sits at 3.5%, down from 4.21%, and I will be surprised if it gets back up to that level. Likewise, the short end sits at 4.5%, down from over 5%, and I don’t see it getting back there, either. If I am w...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LBs0Z8 For the second week in a row, I get to do hours upon hours of reading and writing over the weekend, only to have Sunday interventions make obsolete much of that reading and writing. Keep reading to understand more … There is no question that the major story in markets right now is sort of the only story, and that is the day-to-day perceptions of the bankin...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42ftwpL In this week’s Dividend Cafe, I again decided not to limit myself to one topic but to take the recent avalanche of questions we have received and go through them all, one by one, creating quite a “multi-topic” Dividend Cafe for you. I think you will find the questions intriguing, and I hope you will find the answers satisfying. From questions about student...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JHE8Wf Brian Szytel here with you today reviewing continued market volatility with today’s 700-point swing, albeit today to the upside, surrounding ongoing stress in the financial sector, along with a significant list of new economic data points. I have a full agenda in today’s video podcast link below with updates on employment, manufacturing, interest rates, an...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3leNG2y This is Trevor Cummings, and I am sitting in for David Bahnsen to bring you DC Today. There is a common idiom in the English language, “Wait until the dust settles.” This adage encourages one to be patient until they have more clarity. Investors crave clarity, and when things become too foggy or dusty, investor anxieties skyrocket. These anxieties surface...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Td4dAJ ASK DAVID “What do all these things happening with Silicon Valley Bank and the FDIC mean for small and regional banks? Are those banks going to have to pay even more in deposit rates to lure and retain banking customers?” ~ Dave That is certainly a concern, yes – that even with FDIC protection and solvency issues addressed, the smaller banks may be forced...

Today's Blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/3mQzT2N There is really only one story in financial markets right now, and that is the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and various ramifications from that. We sent a special Dividend Cafe on all of that and more this morning!!! If all you do is read one thing, read that. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/3mK2RRS Today we are going to talk about something no one else seems to be talking about, and that may be one of the worst things imaginable for financial media ratings if it ever gets out. It is not controversial. It is, to me, somewhat obvious. But it is highly counter-cultural, and as I say, for many, it is highly problematic. Jump on into the Dividend Cafe...

Today's Blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/3YGi43n A big market sell-off again now means the market has gone up 1,000 points and down 1,000 points in the last nine days. And Happy Anniversary (14 years ago today) to the generational market bottom in 2009 out of the Great Financial Crisis! Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's post: https://bahnsen.co/3SXObdT Key Economic Points of the Day: ADP reported 242,000 private sector jobs created in February. The correlation between the ADP and BLS numbers each month has not been very tight for a while now. Job openings came in at 10.82 million for February, 300k higher than expected. It had been 11.2 million last month. The trade deficit came in at $68.3 billion in Feb...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3mrIiJz Key Economic Point of the Day: Futures market completely flip-flopped – went to a 70% chance of a half-point hike at the next meeting, with a 30% chance of a quarter-point hike (had been 30% and 70% just yesterday) ASK DAVID “What do your most recent observations in the city tell you about the state of the New York City office market?” ~ Anthony The fact o...

I have written about excessive indebtedness many times in these Dividend Cafe pages, including a piece nearly two years ago that I think has held up quite well.  Lately I have written about Japanification, which is not quite the same topic (though there is certainly heavy overlap). I have long believed in treating the disease, not the symptoms, and I didn't even go to medical school (in fact, if I...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ZCSvkX So the market followed its robust January returns with a -4% drop in the Dow for February and a -2.5% drop in the S&P 500, and the bond market dropped -2.7% on the month (though almost every index we track across stock and bond markets was still positive on the year through February, just much less so than previously). A few comments on today’s action...

Blog post here: https://bahnsen.co/3KW53PY ASK DAVID “In your recent random walk in the Dividend Cafe you mentioned ‘full expensing of all capital expenditures’ as part of your prescription for avoiding Japanification. Will you please explain why this is necessary and what impact it will have?” ~ Luke L. I think one of the major tenets of Japanification is “low/slow/no growth,” and therefore, an o...

This is Trevor Cummings filling in for David Bahsen as he is traveling back to our New York office today. First and foremost, I want to encourage you to check out David’s Dividend Cafe published on Friday. David covered a myriad of topics in a potpourri fashion, and all of these tidbits are what bubble up from actual clients and readers’ questions. Having attended countless number of David’s speak...