The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42FOvmj Stocks rose modestly again today as we flirted with a five handle milestone on the SP500 intra day but closed just two points below. We are up 13 of the last 14 weeks, which is technically the longest streak since 1986. Good thing there wasn’t volatility the following October (joking aside 87’ still closed higher on the year believe it or not). All said, e...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42zrukM A consistently positive trading day in markets today without a lot of new economic data out, but I suppose no news is good news, so we’ll take it. We did have a widening trade deficit data released today roughly in line with expectations but I am intentionally keeping this intro short and sweet today to tee up the more meaty sections in the this podcast. L...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bqijHA Markets traded modestly higher following global markets, particularly China, where broad indices closed higher by over 3%. Markets in China have given up over $7T in market value since peaking in March of 2021, and last night’s move had less to do with actual news than I think it just did with an oversold bounce on potential stimulus. I do suspect there wi...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3HOoQy5 I am very excited to announce a few things going on with the DC Today … First, we’ll start with the changes coming to the Monday edition of DC Today: None. I will continue writing and recording the Monday DC Today every week and will continue doing so in the “format” you see below (which follows the template from the old “COVID and Markets” days for you no...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47Xsqk9 The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve met this week for their scheduled meeting and announced that … wait for it … they were not doing anything with interest rates. The market knew this was coming – futures have had a 100% chance of no increase or decrease in the Fed Funds rate at the January meeting for months – but markets went down -3...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3SoXYtv Welcome to the first day of February, and a 29 day leap year one at that. The Dow completely rebounded from yesterdays sell off in stocks, and the bond market has now had two big day of gains in a row with rates moving significantly lower across the curve. The Fed holding rates unchanged yesterday was expected, but the comments of a March rate cut not bein...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bhe01g The Fed today did as expected, which was nothing, leaving rates in tact for what has now become a six-month pause. Chairman Powell reiterated the unlikelihood of a rate cut in March (more on that in a moment). Markets sold off with the Nasdaq especially getting pummeled (but it was already down over -1% on the day before the announcement. BUT, bond yields...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3HB81Xw A pretty boring day in markets with the Dow up and Nasdaq down. A lot of eyes are on what is coming next in the Middle East after the horrific murder of American lives over the weekend. Oil prices so far are not responding with any panic. Microsoft and Google each release results after hours today. They are big companies, you may have heard. Earnings growt...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48OKdeA Ask David “What is the best argument for why the distributed independent decisions of individuals, families, and businesses create more beneficial outcomes for most people than the top-down, centralized decisions of government, especially the federal government?” ~ David K. My argument is one of incentives and one of knowledge. These are two different argu...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3OkKhL0 I did something fun today …  I just picked random topics from various things on my mind, in my daily reading, or across my research feed – sort of stream of consciousness – and wrote about them.  Therefore, I suspect there will be a little something for everyone today.  Hopefully, each portion is “bite-sized” enough to make it all succinct and readable, an...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48LulK1 An overall positive trading day without a lot of volatility behind what was a pretty decent batch of economic data. The Dow was up well over 200 points, and the S&P 500 notched a sixth day of gains. We had the first read on Q4 GDP come in significantly higher than expected at 3.3%, with the consumer powering almost two percent of it. Both durable goods...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48MsRiD We experienced positive market sentiment throughout the morning until approximately 10:30 AM, driven by better-than-expected PMI data in both services and manufacturing. It’s noteworthy that typically, indications of economic expansion don’t lead to a decline in stocks. However, despite four days of gains on the Dow, the news of improving economic data led...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47R5iUm A short and sweet market recap today as earnings season launches further. Small cap seems to have bounced well since its rough patch to start the year. Bitcoin has dropped -20% since its peak in the midst of ETF approval. I was on set at Fox this morning with the chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, Jason Smith. The 40-3 vote on this tax bill was s...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42bAxYY Earnings seasons gets a lot more intense this week (and next). All the info around the horn on the normal categories is here in today’s DC Today. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3O8BRpX I love these “question and answer” editions of the Dividend Cafe. I should say that 100% of the questions that appear are always completely real, from actual readers, reflecting different things on your mind across a variety of topics related to markets and the economy. Today, we get to talk about what it means for markets to “price things in,” about gold,...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3vIRb6n A positive morning of trading in markets gave way to losses mid-day, only to gain it all back and then some as we headed towards the close, ending up 200 points. Interestingly, the correlation between rates and stocks today actually moved together with both rising, where the opposite has been the case much of this year. 10’s are moving further into four ha...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47HzpgS Markets have stayed in what is pretty much a buyer’s strike this month, as no violent sell-off has been forthcoming, but down days have piled up in advance of the heart of earnings season and with several Fed governors trying to modestly re-frame expectations. Odds of a March rate hike have come down a bit but still remain the most likely view in futures m...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3vEgA0Y Ask David “What is your view about investing in the Indian economy since it appears to have the potential for considerable growth and is not hampered by the regulations of the CCP?” ~ Al On one hand, India is the highest country allocation in our emerging markets strategy. On the other hand, that is not really “investing in the Indian economy” as much as i...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48Sg4um Before I get into this week’s wild fun Dividend Cafe on the subject of government debt, I want to make sure I do one final push around the Year Ahead, Year Behind White Paper that we published last Monday. Because of its depth and length, I imagine some of you printed the chart-filled PDF and plan to digest it this weekend. So don’t worry – if today’s Divi...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NYiJuG Volatility came down and markets were flat as a pancake as we got inflation numbers that were in line with Core CPI and then just barely above on Headline by a tenth for the month. Rates moved higher initially but came off during the day with 10’s down six basis points and the curve steepening a little.  I have more on CPI below and in the podcast, but mar...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4aN8tiB An up day for markets across the board. The drama on the SEC/bitcoin ETF deal moved today. Yesterday it was that they had approved a bitcoin ETF as expected, and bitcoin prices fell. But then they announced that, no, they had not approved it (yet), and the announcement was from a “hack.” Uh-huh. Then the chairman of the SEC took to Twitter to announce that...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4aPFc6P Yesterday we released our annual white paper recapping all that was the year behind and all of our perspective and themes for the year ahead. We welcome you to send it far and wide, distributing it anywhere you’d wish. It is an important part of our annual process and I am proud of this year’s product, and grateful to all in my production and design teams...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/41UHaPl Over the numerous years dedicated to this annual project, it has been a rewarding journey and continues to be one of my most cherished endeavors. I derive great satisfaction from the research, narrative crafting, and the sense of responsibility it instills. I sincerely hope you find value in this year's retrospective and prospective white paper. Brace your...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Oe52YT Generally positive markets this morning lost momentum throughout the trading day with the Dow closing completely flat and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down a pinch. Yields were up on the day, with the 10-year back to just under 4%, and Fed futures starting to show a little less conviction on a rate cut in March (albeit still at a 64% chance). We had som...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3RMxbqz A second down day in the new year, and of course two days isn’t a trend but frankly after nine consecutive positive weeks in markets, some consolidation and back filling is healthy and welcome. I do hope you all are feeling as refreshed and recharged after your Holiday time with family and friends as I am, and while there was less Christmas snow in Utah th...