The Bayesian Conspiracy

Matt Freeman returns to discuss General Artificial Intelligence timelines, and why they are short. Our primary text is: Why I think strong general AI is coming soon Other links: “Let’s think step by step” is all you need NVIDIA A100 info The Mind Killer AI suggested 40,000 new possible chemical weapon s in six hours Yo be real GPT Hack language models with Ignore Previous Instructions Very Bad Wiz...

Kerry discusses virtue ethics with us, and how one is to live. After Virtue, by Alasdair MacIntyre Pareto efficiency at Wikipedia, slightly less dense Pareto Improvement at Investopedia Our 23rd episode – Desirism with Alonzo Fyfe The 12 Virtues of Rationality I See Dead Kids 0:00:00 Intro/Main Topic 1:42:34 LW posts 2:05:53 Thank the Patron! Hey look, we have a  discord ! What could possibly go w...

Tailcalled gives us the down low on a variation of the popularly discussed (if not that widely liked) transgender typology – autogynephilia (or AGP). Unfortunately, due to technical difficulties, Jace was only on for part of the episode and our software didn’t appreciate the confusion and dropped his audio entirely. Tailcalled’s blog:  https://surveyanon.wordpress.com/?utm_source...

Eneasz drops a primer on Georgist Land Value Taxes. All increases in productivity will be capture by rising rents for as long as mankind exists , unless we find a way to prevent landlords from capturing all the benefits of rising land value. Henry George found the way to do this. Source post: Book Review: Progress & Poverty Follow-ups that we barely touched on, but include a lot more: Part I &...

Steven and Eneasz discuss the latest timeline shifts regarding the advent of superhuman general intelligence. Then in the LW posts we got greatly sidetracked by politics (stupid mind-killer!). Links: Two-year update on my personal AI timelines on LessWrong Robert Wiblin on kissing your kids Lex Fridman podcast Jack Clark (AI policy guy) on AI policy Scott Alexander on slowing AI progress Guide to...

We speak with Levi/Ferb, learning about labor law in the USA. Turns out it’s not what we thought. Links: What would a general strike look like today? Biden intervenes in railroad contract to block strike Truckers strike at Port of Oakland Taft–Hartley Act A People’s History of the United States Dr. Horrible’s Sing-Along Blog United Mine Workers of America to pay more than $13 mil...

A Jugaad is like a hack that combines a new thing that doesn’t work anymore with an old thing that sorta worked, as a temporary solution. Now do it for Ethics. (note: due to technical issue, the last 3 minutes of the main topic audio quality is crappy. sorry.) The Primary Article – Jugaad Ethics Also mentioned: Random article about jugaad Eneasz found Who Should Pay On A Date? Pregnanc...

Luck is the most power force in the universe, and leaving power untapped is not very rational. Searching for Outliers How to Get Lucky Also mentioned: Feedback – It’s Probably Not Lithium The audio version of It’s Probably Not Lithium from the LessWrong Curated Podcast The entirety of the LessWrong Curated Podcast Friendship is Optimal Things you’re allowed to do Micro-Marriages...

Dunbar’s Number is both the cause of and downfall of Human Civilization Low-Status degrades your health Your Book Review: The Dawn Of Everything Mentioned in the follow-ups section: Lithium suspect? AIs threaten proof-of-work The Mind Killer podcast 0:00:34 Feedback 0:11:58 Main Topic pt1 Status in Dunbar Spheres 0:46:37 Main Topic pt2 The Dawn of Everything 1:15:08 LW posts 1:30:04 Thank th...

Katrina is back!! We talk about how pregnancy isn’t super easy, and is borderline body horror. War In The Womb Expecting Better book Pregnant Women Are Smug Racial Differences in Maternal Mortality How Pregnancy Changes the Brain , and PubMed version Clown Registry Still A Good Mom 1:32:08 LW posts 1:51:00 Thank the Patron Hey look, we have a  discord ! What could possibly go wrong? Also mer...

Étienne Fortier-Dubois argues that Effective Altruism has an Aesthetics problem But first! Some extended listener feedback Nuclear War is A-OK if you’re Russian State TV Three Bodies At Mitani A Guide To Asking Robots To Design Stained Glass Windows 00:42  Abortion Clarification & Jace’s Addition 14:15  Best Purchase Ever 27:24  Main Topic: Effective Altruism’s Neglect of Aes...

Roe v Wade is going away . This sucks, but it’s not the end of the world. Polls show most Americans support allowing abortion in the first weeks, banning it in the last trimester. In state’s where it’s legal, one can have a self-managed abortion . AidAccess is available to help. Services like  ipostal1  will forward mail from other states. Misoprostol is relatively easy to acquir...

Not long ago, Hawai’i was a constitutional monarchy. A lot of Hawaiian residents want that restored. Travis Don Kailikea Paradea takes us through what happened, and what’s going down now. Recommended by Travis: The Legends and Myths of Hawaii The Rise and Fall of the Hawaiian Kingdom: A Pictorial History Unfamiliar Fishes Weblog of the acting government of the Hawaiian Kingdom 1:17:57 ...

Four Major AI Advancements In One Week! New Scaling Laws for Large Language Models – essentially everyone has been training large language models with a deeply suboptimal use of compute Googles Pathways Language Model explains jokes , and it can distinguish cause and effect and understand counterfactuals DALL-E 2 makes amazing art on demand Socratic Modeling system 1:39:51  LW posts Also men...

We address theoretical cryonics concerns, and discuss Guzey’s Theses On Sleep 3:15  Cryonics Concerns 49:21  Theses On Sleep 1:23:01  LW posts 1:50:16  Thank the Patron Also mentioned: LW Cryonics Probability Estimates guide Our episode with Rudy Hoffman Lifespan podcast Limitless w Chris Hemsworth Counter-theses on Sleep Scott Alexander’s Sleep Is The Mate Of Death Cryonics Insitute F...

The Conspirators regroup to discuss if/how their views on monarchy have changed. The full episode is available for our Patrons Mentioned: List of Current States With Monarchs CGP Gray’s Rules for Rulers (Keys of Power) Tears For Fears – Everybody Wants To Rule The World (warning – crappy 80s song)

We speak with Cornelius about this idea that Monachy is good because it can save us from populist fascism . 1:44:50 LW posts 2:14:45 Thank the Patron Cornelius blogs at EsotericMusings.substack.com Also mentioned: Gray Mirror Substack Democracy: The God that Failed by Hans-Hermann Hoppe Jace’s counterargument is basically a link to Scott Alexander’s Anti-Reactionary FAQ We did a &#8220...

We catch up on stuff and hit a few wandering targets. 0:01 Jace on Lithium 21:10 Feedback 26:05 LW posts 50:06 Nuclear Ukraine 59:43 Nuclear Us 1:05:30 Steven Tries To Get Us Cancelled Lithium in drinking water linked with lower suicide rates The Mind Killer – Vladimir Putin’s Small Dick Energy Warcasting – ACX and Zvi Razom Ukraine delivers medical supplies Robert Wiblin leaving...

We discuss A Chemical Hunger – the paper presenting the hypothesis that the modern obesity epidemic is due to enviromental contamination causing widespread lithium poisoning. EDIT – MAJOR UPDATE – It’s probably not lithium ! Links to become a patron of this group , or contact them BMI Calculator Less Wrong Posts – 5:53 Main Topic – 15:09 Thank the Patron –...

This is a trailer for a bonus Patrons-only episode. It’s 45 minutes chatting with Aella about various things that struck Eneasz’s interest. Aella’s twitter is Aella_Girl . Homepage at Knowingless , also has a substack .

The Conspiracy comes out strongly in favor of switching to Normal Predictions , which is safe and easy when you use the Jan Christian Refsgaard method ! Also, we agree with Zvi that Change is Bad . (Though note that changing to Normal Predictions has so many positives that it outweighs the Bad of Change, so don’t let that dissuade you in this instance.) Things of interest: Scott Alexander&#8...

A few days ago I asked Wes a couple follow-up questions on wireheading, and later chatted with Emilio from the Discord on-record. I thought it wouldn’t be too long, but it turned out to go about as long as a full episode. So now there’s a bonus episode available for Patrons (and Discord members) on Wireheading. Here’s a trailer, to entice you into getting the full thing. To subsc...

Jace and Steven cover this one since Eneasz is busy drinking cocktails out of a coconut in a beach in Hawaii. Robin Hanson (probably correctly) thinks the world is going to shit (paraphrasing). He thinks that a robust check on the escalating madness out there could be a community of intellectual generalists. Is he right? Are his categories sensible? Find out as we meander through this post ! 4:24...

We beef with Wes over how important values may or may not be, and why Wireheading is awesome and/or evil. Wes is the head of The Mind Killer podcast ! 7:23  –  LW Posts discussion begins 53:39  –  Main Topic begins 2:01:40  –  Thank the Patron We also discuss Not Everthing Is a Clue and Aladdin The quokka Hey look, we have a  discord ! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Ra...

We speak to Aella about her post on Frame Control Aella’s Twitter &  LSD post National Domestic Violence Hotline The Categories Were Made For Man not visa versa SSC post Jace’s XKCD reference Shut Down The Narcissist video Gray Rock video Not Everything Is A Clue Shaping Exercises 101 Hey look, we have a  discord ! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Z...