The Bayesian Conspiracy

Steven is joined by the hosts of the Sex and Sensibility podcast! Join us as we explore the vibrant world of VibeCamp, a unique gathering where creativity, curiosity, and community collide. From unconventional events like imagining eating someone to building playgrounds, this episode dives into the eclectic and wholesome spirit of VibeCamp. Join us as we explore the vibrant experiences of Vibe Cam...

Eneasz and Steven are at LessOnline/SummerCamp and Steven was lucky enough to attend a short presentation by Damon (Daystar Eld) and Ivy on How to Become a Romantic. The presentation was too short for Steven’s satisfaction, so we found a time slot to record a (too short) episode. LINKS Damon/Daystar Eld Ivy’s X handle and website Guild of the Rose Paid Bonus content for the week – Full...

Our values are robust against Moloch because they were forged in his flames. LINKS When does competition lead to recognisable values? Our episode 18 – Robin Hanson Interview Chex Quest FarmKind – Animal Welfare Offsets (matching code “cagefree”) Paid Bonus content for the week  –  Preshow Chat ,  Full Video 00:03:02 – A Good Post-AGI Future 00:15:07 – Human Values Were Forged in Malthu...

In Episode 258 we talked about EA Veganism for a bit… and that bit was not long enough. So here we go again! Fill out  Steven’s 3-question survey! LINKS Our episode 258 – How Effective Altruism Has Evolved EA Vegan Advocacy is not truthseeking, and it’s everyone’s problem by Elizabeth Vegan Health Advice by Ozy Dairy cows make their misery expensive (but their calves can’t) by Elizabet...

The stupid red-button/blue-button discourse came back. Eneasz thought he could sit out this round until Aella went Chaos God with her social media app, Glosso. Fill out  our new 2-question survey ! LINKS PlzDontKillUs Inkhaven Presents podcast The Knot webfic The Mind Reviver Glosso Stupid Tim Urban with his stupid button-resurrection oh noes, Anthropic employees gonna give money to EA stuff ” art...

We discuss how far the right to be wrong goes, a recent intra-rat kerfuffle, and why random violence is bad. And it’s secretly all about AI Doom. Fill out our 2-question survey ! LINKS One Week in the Rat Farm Kelsey’s religious liberalism tweet Scott’s tweet in response to Robby from MIRI Scott’s tweet in reply to Ronny from Lightcone Only Law Can Prevent Extinction by Eli...

Matt returns to discuss a post urging us to chill out on AI if there isn’t imminent doom in 2028. There is no video or preshow chat today, due to user error in setting up an in-person video recording. Sorry. LINKS Consider chilling out in 2028 The Scary Bridge Kill Your Friend’s Cat The UnSlop AI Fiction competition The new Guild of the Rose Paid Bonus content for the week – none, sorr...

We talk about three EA-adjacent articles, hitting veganism , directing your donations , and community . LINKS Why you should eat meat – even if you hate factory farming by KatWoods Donations, The Fifth Year , by Jenn Promises , by Harri Bayesian Conspiracy 28 – Effective Altruism The Case For Sardines “ oh noes, Anthropic employees gonna give money to EA stuff ” article Gwern on...

We relive the last 48 hours of the future of humanity being wrestled over. The Pentagon wants to use Claude for comprehensive mass surveillance of Americans and autonomous kill-bots, and Anthropic says no. The Pentagon retaliates with extreme prejudice. With guest-star Matt. LINKS Washington Post summary Anthropic’s response Trump’s response Hegseth’s unhinged lunacy We Will Not...

We are inspired by Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI to consider the value of writing for LLM s LINKS Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI Gwern’s Writing for LLMs Tracing Woodgrain’s Reliable Sources Shambaugh’s An AI Agent Published a Hit Piece on Me Eneasz’s Stone Age Billionaire Can’t Word Good InkHaven LessOnline The main purpose of the AFFINE Seminar is to gi...

Eneasz talks a bit about his CFAR experience, and we discuss DaystarEld’s Epistemically Honest Reassurance LINKS CFAR’s home page Upcoming CFAR workshops our episode 152 – Frame Control with Aella Epistemically Honest Reassurance Pokémon, Origin of the Species (also in audio ) Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow chatter , Full Show Video 00:00:56 – Announcements & Feedback 00...

WSCFriedman gets to the core of what HPMOR is ACTUALLY about, and finally pinpoints why we love it so much, in his essay Harry Potter And The Methods Of Rationality Is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer . LINKS Audio version of HPMOR is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer , from AskWho William’s blog, “As Our Days” ACX Non-Book Review 2025 Winners Post Just HPMOR substack , an...

Discussing Ben Pace’s recent post on the Rationalist Vices . LINKS The Seven Vicious Vices of Rationalists (includes AI audio version) Lightcone Fundraiser! 2025 LessWrong Census/Survey Simone & Malcom Collins vs Reporter on whether genes exist MIRI is hiring Slime Mold Time Mold’s long-delayed Lithium response If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies Dear Grom by Eneasz Paid Bonus conten...

A short story by Ben Pace. Original can be found here . Donate to the fundraiser here ! Harry sings karaoke here . Happy New Year.

A short story by Prerat. Original can be found here . Merry Xmas!

Hello and happy holiday season to you all! Eneasz is back and we’re here to say hi and give a shoutout to Skyler’s awesome annual LessWrong survey and Lighthaven’s fundraising event. See the links below for more details. LINKS The LessWrong survey will remain open from now until at least January 7th, 2026. Lighthaven is once again seeking support. If you’re inclined to help...

Join me as I sit down with Alex and David, both previous guests on the show and both cofounders of the Guild of the Rose. Together, we go over the core – the heart – of what we consider to be the Rationalist tradition. The 12 Virtues are an awesome distillation of what the rest of the sequences build on. Be sure to check out the Guild of the Rose. If our constantly pitching it to you h...

Matt Freeman has been cohosting several media analysis podcasts for over a decade. He and his cohost Scott have been doing weekly episodes of the Doofcast every Friday and they cover movies, books, and TV shows. Matt and Scott’s analysis podcasts have made me love stories even more and have equipped me with tools to enhance my ability to think more deeply about the stories I consume and enjo...

Booker is a long-time attendee and one of the coordinators of the Denver area Less Wrong community. Community engagement isn’t just a background task for him – he’s taken real steps to get involved with and improve his community and you can too! He’s here to tell us about the things he’s done and give some guidance on how you all can get involved and help make your co...

While Eneasz is busy at InkHaven, Steven sits down with Matt Freeman to talk about not-AI stuff! We had (in my opinion) a great conversation about stoic philosophy, the traps of getting too entrenched in any philosophical framework, and some of the ingredients of a happy life. LINKS It’s Okay to Feel Bad for a Bit Doof! Media , the home of Matt’s other podcasts! Flanagan’s Wake 0...

We talk with Max Harms on the air for the first time since 2017 ! He’s got a new book coming out (pre-order your copy here or at Amazon ) and we spend about the first half talking about If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies . LINKS Max’s first book, Crystal Society Eneasz’s audiobook of about the first two thirds of the first book And the official audiobooks page Flash fiction conte...

Jay talks with us about finding Alpha – returns above the base rate – in every day life (and what this means). LINKS Optimize Everything , Jay’s substack Jay on Twitter Arbor Trading Bootcamp Kelsey’s argument that We Need To Be Able To Sue AI Companies 00:00:05 – Alpha with Jay 01:28:53 – Guild of the Rose 01:31:00 – Miscellanea 01:40:58 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon...

We continue discussing Nostalgebraist’s “The Void” in the context of how to relate to LLMs. If God imagines Claude hard enough, does Claude become real? LINKS The Void Audio reading of The Void , from AskWho The referenced episode  where the three of us spoke of Janus’s post “Simulators” Claude-Clark post – Simulacra Welfare: Meet Clark , by Grace Kind Golden Gate Claude Vox on Shrimp Welfar...

We discuss Nostalgebraist’s “The Void” in the context of how to relate to LLMs. “When you talk to ChatGPT, who or what are you talking to?” LINKS The Void Audio reading of The Void , from AskWho The referenced episode where the three of us spoke of Janus’s post “Simulators” The Measure of a Man episode Darmok episode Kyle Fish on 80,000 Hours podcast...

Audio reading of The Void , from AskWho