by Top Mark Capital
Telltales
An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don't mind sailing analogies telltales.substack.com
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by Top Mark Capital
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Podcast website
Latest episode
Jul 8, 2026
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Episodes
Parallel Islands: When Chips, Cars & Currencies Diverge (e2519) 07.05.2025 30:03
SHOWNOTES In this episode Mike, Jason, and Hunt weave together energy markets, semiconductor geopolitics, and healthcare shake‑ups to surface the cash‑flow signals that matter most for investors navigating 2025. [00:00] Intro [00:00:38] Oil & Gas Snapshot – Exhibits C & B (pp. 1‑2) Hunt dissects world crude supply, flagging likely production lifts from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Iran. Despite OP...
Empty Shelves and Shifting Supply Chains: The Cost of US-China Decoupling (e2518) 30.04.2025 32:48
In this fast-moving 30-minute round-table, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace and Hunt Lawrence assess how an accelerating economic split between the United States and China would ripple through energy, technology, healthcare, retail and more. Drawing on their weekly Cash-Flow Memo, they move page-by-page through a 20-page company list and three macro “Exhibits,” highlighting immediate supply-chain pai...
Tesla's Robotaxi Rollout: A Glimpse into the Future of Transportation (e2517) 23.04.2025 33:17
SHOWNOTES In this episode, the Telltales team discusses Tesla's robotaxi rollout, healthcare changes under the Trump administration, and Netflix's potential foray into sports streaming. They analyze the implications of these developments on their respective industries and explore future possibilities. [00:00:23] Intro Mike welcomes listeners to the Telltales podcast, where the hosts dive deep into...
Navigating Tariffs, Tech Troubles, and Energy Impacts (e2516) 18.04.2025 37:02
SHOWNOTES In this week’s Cash Flow Memo, the team examines the Fed’s market impact on tariffs, energy markets, and tech giants’ AI strategies. Hunt opens with Trump’s rapid tariff reversal amid bond auction jitters, then walks us through oil & gas supply/demand, U.S. budget dynamics, and the implications for AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META, Walmart, Uber & DoorDash. We also pause for a message from Oakclif...
Navigating the Tariff Turmoil: Implications for Tech and Healthcare (e2515) 11.04.2025 17:35
SHOWNOTES In this abbreviated episode, Mike and Jason discuss the recent tariff issues between the US and China, their potential impact on the tech and healthcare industries, and the implications of NVIDIA's AI breakthroughs for data center efficiency. They also compare the resilience of Coca-Cola and NVIDIA as investments during a potential recession. [00:00:54] Intro The hosts explain the reason...
Navigating the Healthcare Landscape: Layoffs, Regulations, and Breakthroughs (e2514) 03.04.2025 34:54
This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources beli...
Apple's AI Woes, Signal & Government Comms, Healthcare Cashflow Stars, & Energy Market Outlook (e2513) 27.03.2025 34:36
SHOWNOTES In this episode, the Telltales team dives deep into healthcare investing with a focus on Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Lantheus Holdings. They also discuss Apple's AI challenges, the complexities of secure government communication, and the outlook for energy markets in light of geopolitical uncertainties and the hunt for federal spending cuts. [00:00:00] Intro Mike welcomes listeners to the...
Tesla's Bumpy Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities (e2512) 19.03.2025 34:02
SHOWNOTES In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in energy, technology, and healthcare. They analyze the potential impact of a second Trump term on oil and gas markets, dive into Nvidia's AI dominance and the future of inferencing, and explore Tesla's challenges and opportunities in the evolving EV landscape. [00:00:55] Energy Market & Oil Supply Discussion (Exhibit...
Chips, Budgets, and Genome Breakthroughs (e2511) 12.03.2025 34:49
Shownotes In this episode, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence cover the latest in energy, technology, healthcare, and updates on U.S. fiscal policy. The conversation explores recent developments in semiconductor manufacturing, natural gas and oil markets, and innovative breakthroughs in gene sequencing. [00:00] Intro Mike introduces the episode and highlights key discussion topics in...
Step Changes: Finding the Next Nvidia (e2510) 06.03.2025 32:54
SHOWNOTES [00:00] Intro The episode kicks off with Hunt teasing Tesla’s potential for a step change via autonomous driving, followed by Mike’s welcome to the Telltales podcast and an overview of the Cash Flow Memo. Key points include the focus on energy, tech, and healthcare, with a disclaimer about the informational nature of the discussion. The hosts set the stage for a 30-minute deep dive into...
AI Arms Race Heats Up as Transparency Comes to Healthcare Pricing (e2509) 27.02.2025 34:08
SHOWNOTES In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Donald Trump's 2024 election victory on energy, healthcare, technology, and the broader economy. They analyze key exhibits, dive into company-specific news, and explore the potential impacts of policy changes. [00:00:59] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects a Trump administration deal with China to tighten the...
RFK Jr: Tackling the Root Causes of America's Health Crisis & The two most interesting companies of 2025 (e2508) 20.02.2025 33:42
SHOWNOTES This week the Telltales Podcast dives into critical cash flow insights, spanning volatile oil and gas markets, U.S. government spending debates, and the disruptive potential of Tesla, NVIDIA, and healthcare innovators. Hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence unpack the numbers and trends shaping investment opportunities as of February 19, 2025. [00:00] Intro The episode ki...
Navigating the Shifting Tides of Energy, Media, and Healthcare (e2507) 13.02.2025 33:25
SHOWNOTES In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the potential impacts of the Trump administration on energy markets, media consumption, and the healthcare industry. They analyze key exhibits, dive into company-specific news, and share insights on the shifting landscape of these sectors. [00:00:33] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Hunt expects Iran's oil production to decrease under the T...
Vertex's Breakthrough Pain Drug Approval and the Future of Non-Opioid Treatments (e2506) 06.02.2025 30:13
SHOWNOTES In this episode, Hunt and Jason discuss the implications of a potential second Trump term on the energy sector, Elon Musk's efforts to reduce federal spending, and the recent approval of Vertex's non-opioid pain drug. They also delve into the latest earnings reports from major tech companies and the advancements in autonomous driving technology. [00:00:46] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / D...
DeepSeek's AI Breakthrough: Efficiency, Innovation, and Global Competition (e2505) 30.01.2025 34:37
SHOWNOTES In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the potential impacts of the Trump administration's energy policies, the game-changing AI innovations from China's DeepSeek, and key updates from healthcare companies like Vertex, Lantheus, and BioNTech. [00:00:52] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt believes a deal with Iran under the Trump administration could tighten the oil market s...
Cashflow Pick’em 2025 Part 2 - Pages 14-20 (e2504) 23.01.2025 33:03
SHOWNOTES In this special edition of the Telltales podcast, the team continues "Cashflow Pick'em" from week 2502, selecting companies on memo pages 14-20 that they believe will grow their cashflow the most in the coming year. They also discuss the impact of Trump's first days in office on various industries and the competitive landscape in artificial intelligence. [00:01:02] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL S...
From Energy Markets to AI Innovations: Where Are We Headed? (e2502) 16.01.2025 35:55
SHOWNOTES [00:00:50] World Oil Supply and Demand Hunt shares insights on Russia’s oil production outlook amid sanctions. Potential impact of geopolitical developments on global oil prices. Why WTI prices might swing between the mid-50s to high-70s. [00:03:03] US Gas Demand/Supply Overview of cold-weather impacts and freeze-offs on natural gas production. Discussion on LNG export growth. [00:04:07]...
Cashflow Pick’em 2025 Part 1 - Pages 1-13 (e2502) 09.01.2025 37:04
SHOWNOTES [00:00:00] Introduction (Pages 1–13) Mike, Jason, and Hunt open the show by outlining their plan to assess which companies covered in the memo are poised for the highest percentage increase in free cashflow by 2025. They highlight that overall cashflow growth—not just revenue—drives long-term valuations, and they set up the structure for this year’s “Cashflow Pick’em” challenge. [00:00:4...
10ish Surprises for 2025: Predictions That Could Shape Markets 31.12.2024 27:23
SHOWNOTES Episode Overview In this special edition of the Cash Flow Memo , hosts Mike, Jason, and Hunt look back on their “12 Surprises” from last year—unconventional predictions with high potential impact—and discuss which came true and which missed the mark. Then they unveil fresh predictions for 2025, ranging from nuclear fusion milestones and AI-driven health breakthroughs to geopolitical even...
2024 Cashflow Pick'em Results: Who Picked the Winners? (e2452) 24.12.2024 29:39
Welcome to our 2024 Cashflow Pick'em Results Epsode, where Hunt, Mike, and Jason recap the cashflow growth in each company in the memo. Download the memo at Telltales.us and check out episode 2401 where we made our initial picks, here: 2024 Cashflow Pick'em Today we will explore who came out on top in free cash flow growth and examine the forces shaping energy, technology, and healthcare in 2024....
From Uber to Tesla: Navigating the Next Wave of Transportation Tech (e2451) 19.12.2024 36:27
REQUEST!! This week on the Oakcliff segment, Dawn discussed the awesome accomplishments of Oakcliff Sailing this year. She suggests 3 ways you can support Oakcliff in 2025, they are… Join and/or host the Oakcliff Winter Tour - This is a two session event gathering our graduates and collaborators to entertain and educate in an effort to set up American Sailing for success into 2028 and beyond. Clic...
Scaling AI: Elon Musk's 100,000 GPU Cluster and the Future of Self-Driving Cars (e2450) 11.12.2024 33:28
SHOWNOTES In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Elon Musk's massive AI training cluster on the semiconductor industry, the future of self-driving cars, and the shifting landscape of chip manufacturing. They also explore the potential impact of Trump's FDA pick on healthcare costs and the U.S. budget. [00:06:27] Limits to GPU Scaling (Page 1) Jason and Mike discuss the l...
Navigating the Challenges of AI Hallucination and Section 230 (e2449) 04.12.2024 34:54
SHOWNOTES In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the challenges surrounding AI hallucination, the potential for healthcare reform under a new administration, and the outlook for the energy sector. They explore the legal and ethical implications of generative AI models, examine potential solutions to tackle healthcare costs, and analyze the effects of geopolitics and policy changes on oil an...
Tech Titans' AI Strategies: Delays, Investments, and Innovations (e2448) 28.11.2024 31:00
Download the memo at www.telltales.us SHOWNOTES Join Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence on Telltales as they delve into the latest financial insights across the energy, technology, and healthcare sectors. This episode covers topics from global oil supply dynamics to the AI strategies of tech giants like NVIDIA and Apple. [00:00:34] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hun...
Trump's 2nd Term, Part 2: Analyzing Big Tech, Chips, Software, Telecom, Media & Payments (e2447) 21.11.2024 35:47
SHOWNOTES In this episode, the Telltales team continues last week’s discussion on the potential impact of Donald Trump's election victory on pages 1-7 of the memo. They also delve into company-specific news and developments, such as Netflix's live streaming challenges and the future of the semiconductor industry. [00:00:49] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt discusses the potential impact o...
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