Telltales

The Cashflow Memo AI Is Finally Paying. The Question This Week Was How The Suppliers Got Paid. Micron’s 2026 memory is sold out, with customers writing prepayment checks for chips that don’t exist. AMD’s Q1 data center revenue was up 57% — but the strength was EPYC CPUs, not the OpenAI GPU deal, which contributed zero dollars to the quarter. Palantir printed an 85% revenue quarter at a Rule of 40...

This week we walk through the post-Hormuz oil setup, the Intel stake math, and a layer-by-layer review of the hyperscalers — Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, and Meta — as they navigate the AI buildout. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Iran ceasefire path holds — Project Freedom (defended Hormuz corridor) is suspended in favor of a one-page 14-point memo brokered via Pakistan; Hunt models ’26 o...

The Cashflow Memo Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon all printed in 48 hours. Same capex cycle, three different cloud margin stories — and Apple and Meta both quietly repositioned the balance sheet. The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the 86 companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 13 minut...

Mike, Hunt, and Jason work through a revised oil thesis, the converging big-retail battle between Amazon, Walmart, and Costco, a hyperscaler preview, and the most-favored-nations finish line in pharma. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Hunt revised his oil thesis: the Strait of Hormuz impasse with Iran now looks structural after the US rejected Iran’s offer of a 5-year enrichment pause, pushing ne...

The Cashflow Memo Q1 prints divide — Intel’s best day since 1987, Charter’s worst Tesla, ServiceNow, Apple, Intel, Charter, UnitedHealth, Kinder Morgan all printed. Five megacaps and Regeneron up next week. The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the 86 companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 13 minutes...

SHOWNOTES Tim Cook is out, John Turner is in, and Apple’s AI strategy just became the most important question on page one. This week we pressure-test Apple’s hardware-first bet against the Intel cautionary tale, run Hunt’s contrarian oil math on a closed Strait of Hormuz, and hit a packed healthcare slate from CDC leadership to an mRNA cancer vaccine breakthrough. [00:00] Welcome and Episode Previ...

OPENING DISCLAIMER — 0:00 AVA: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. COLD OPEN — 0:15 AVA: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot. MARCUS: And I’m Marcus Graham. Every Saturday we walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next week — across...

This week on Telltales: we work through Hormuz's impact on oil and gas, the federal deficit's interest-rate squeeze, and then spend most of the hour on the dominant-company question — from Lilly and Nvidia to the real debate: is Microsoft a value trap or the operating system for the agent era? [00:00] Cold Open & Memo Setup Mike opens the episode and points listeners to the Cash Flow Memo at tellt...

NVIDIA has evolved from a near-bankrupt GPU maker into the most dominant force in computing infrastructure. This week we unpack the "process power" framework that explains why, and ask whether Eli Lilly can replicate the same playbook in pharma. [00:00] Exhibit C: Oil Markets & Iran Ceasefire If the ceasefire holds, global production declines ~1M bbl/day. Demand stays flat at 103M. Average oil pri...

This week’s Telltales Podcast moves from geopolitics to technology to healthcare, connecting the latest market headlines back to cash flow, capital allocation, and competitive advantage. Mike, Jason, and Hunt discuss how energy risk, AI spending, and pharma dealmaking could shape investors’ thinking in the months ahead. [00:00] Opening and memo overview Mike opens the episode by framing the discus...

SHOWNOTES In this episode of Telltales, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence unpack the latest Cash Flow Memo across energy, technology, and healthcare. The conversation ranges from Iran-driven oil risk and natural gas pricing to AI infrastructure demand, semiconductor inputs, and the long-term investment case for cancer therapies. [00:00] Energy outlook after the Iran conflict Hunt op...

SHOWNOTES This week on Telltales, Hunt, Mike, and Jason break down the most consequential disruption to global energy markets in decades — the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — and what it means for oil prices, capital markets, and portfolio positioning. The conversation then pivots to AI agents, harness engineering, and the structural shift in how companies will operate. [00:00] **Strai...

In this episode of Telltales, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence analyze global energy markets, the cash flow profiles of the world’s largest technology companies, and key developments in biotech and healthcare investing. [00:00] Introduction Mike introduces the episode and the Cash Flow Memo, which tracks financials across major companies and macro exhibits covering U.S. government...

SHOWNOTES This week on Telltales, the team moves from energy geopolitics to mega-cap tech cash flows and healthcare catalysts—through the lens of what actually endures: free cash flow, incentives, and execution. [00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo setup Mike frames the episode’s focus across energy, technology, and healthcare—and points listeners to the memo and exhibits. [00:29] Exhibit...

Is genetic sequencing the future of healthcare? In this Top Mark Capital Fellow Webinar, Montana Joy breaks down how next-generation sequencing is transforming oncology, infectious disease, prenatal testing, and personalized medicine—and why now may be the inflection point. [00:00] Introduction: The Shift Toward Molecular Medicine Mike Nicoletti introduces the webinar and frames the central theme:...

SHOWNOTES This week on Telltales, the team digs into the cash flow realities behind energy markets, AI-driven software disruption, and fast-moving healthcare headlines. Plus, they connect the dots between government finances, rates, and the incentives shaping corporate behavior. [00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo The crew tees up a fast tour through energy, technology, and healthcare us...

SHOWNOTES This week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt move from energy market crosscurrents into an AI-driven “SaaSpocalypse,” then close with high-stakes healthcare updates—from Lilly’s trillion-dollar run to PBM reform and early cancer detection. [00:19] Disclaimer Important investing and risk disclosure before the discussion begins. [00:29] Exhibit C: Oil, Iran, and Geopolitical Risk Crude ho...

SHOWNOTES This week on Telltales, the team runs through the latest Cash Flow Memo and the three exhibits—U.S. government finances, natural gas, and oil—then closes with the massive Big Tech CapEx wave and what it means for chips, data centers, and geopolitics. [00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo overview Quick setup on the episode’s focus across energy, technology, and healthcare—and how...

SHOWNOTES This week on Telltales, the team connects the dots between macro headlines and the Cash Flow Memo—spanning energy markets, Fed policy, AI’s impact on software, and where China creates real business exposure across industries. [00:20] Disclaimer A quick reminder that the discussion is informational only and not investment advice. [00:45] Exhibit C: Oil Market Setup US–Iran negotiations an...

SHOWNOTES In this special “Cashflow Pick’em” edition, the team runs through the Cash Flow Memo and drafts the companies they think will grow free cash flow the most (percentage basis). Along the way, they hit the latest in oil and natural gas, then pivot into healthcare policy and the AI-driven semiconductor buildout. [00:32] Disclaimer Investment discussion for informational purposes only; do you...

SHOWNOTES This special “Cashflow Pick’em” edition runs a percentage-based free cash flow draft across the memo (pages 1–13), then closes with exhibits on oil, natural gas, and the U.S. budget—plus a healthcare segment featuring GLP-1 dynamics and emerging cancer vaccine data. [00:00] Cashflow Pick’em Format and Ground Rules Host sets the framework: pick the company on each page most likely to grow...

SHOWNOTES In this episode of Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through their 2026 surprises across healthcare, tech, and energy—then tie it back to what cash flow investors should actually watch. Expect big calls on pharma M&A, AI in healthcare workflows, macro deficits, and the durability of Nvidia’s profit engine.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo Quick setup on the weekly memo an...

This week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt continue their “surprise” predictions for 2026. This week, focusing on tech related surprises. Then they shift into the memo’s exhibits on oil, natural gas, and U.S. government finances. They close with timely healthcare updates and a rapid-fire run through major news on pages 1–4. [00:00] Welcome to Telltales Mike introduces the Cash Flow Memo and pre...

A rapid-fire “surprises for 2026” episode—contrarian macro + energy calls, then quick year-end check-ins for tech and healthcare through a cash-flow lens.[00:20] Disclaimer Informational only, not investment advice.[00:30] Macro & Energy Surprises Framework “Five-and-a-half surprises” for 2026: plausible outcomes that run against consensus.[01:24] Surprise: Debt-to-GNP Falls A scenario where the d...

This week the team speeds through Exhibits A–C (U.S. finances, natural gas, and oil) before revisiting last year’s “10-ish surprises” and what they signal for 2026 across energy, tech, and healthcare. [00:20] Disclaimer This conversation is for informational purposes only—do your own work before making any investment decision. [00:39] Exhibit C: Oil & the “shadow fleet” Brent rebounds as the U.S....