Telltales

Mike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace walk this week’s Cash Flow Memo, from $90 oil and a grinding 10-year to the long-awaited Anthropic S-1, with Montana joining on how pharma will use AI. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Hunt holds his $90 oil call against WTI near $100 and Brent $112 to $115: the Iran stalemate looks indefinite, Hormuz bypass pipelines are running, and US commercial...

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Tape — W2643 Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-10-17 → 2026-10-23. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately. Telltales Yield — Top 10 Telltales Yield — Bottom 10 This Week’s Reporters Sector Medians Debt / FCF Watch (high...

Mike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace walk this week’s Cash Flow Memo: an oil strip pricing a long Iran stalemate, a $2 trillion deficit and a rising 10-year, Europe’s food rules, SpaceX’s data center economics against Musk’s trillion-dollar talk, and Nvidia’s path to $400 billion of free cash flow. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Despite the Iran war, world oil supply is off only abo...

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Tape — W2642 Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-10-09 → 2026-10-16. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately. Telltales Yield — Top 10 Telltales Yield — Bottom 10 This Week’s Reporters Sector Medians Debt / FCF Watch (high...

Mike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace walk this week’s Cash Flow Memo: an oil strip pricing a long stalemate, a $2 trillion deficit and a grinding 10-year, what hyperscaler data center capex actually earns, the hyperscalers against the chipmakers, BioNTech’s cancer vaccine miss, and the FDA’s food additive loophole. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * The 2027 oil strip at $83 against a $...

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Tape — W2641 Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-10-02 → 2026-10-09. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately. Telltales Yield — Top 10 Telltales Yield — Bottom 10 This Week’s Reporters Sector Medians Debt / FCF Watch (high...

Mike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace walk this week’s Cash Flow Memo: oil stuck in triple digits, a 10-year Treasury headed toward 6%, SpaceX’s $40 billion Nvidia build, the agent threat to Apple’s App Store, and what a trillion-dollar valuation buys at Eli Lilly. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * SpaceX is borrowing $40 billion with Nvidia credit support for what is close to a turnkey...

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Tape — W2640 Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-09-25 → 2026-10-02. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately. Telltales Yield — Top 10 Telltales Yield — Bottom 10 This Week’s Reporters No universe names reporting in the co...

Hunt, Mike, and Jason walk the Cash Flow Memo as Hormuz flows recover, the fiscal year closes near a $2 trillion deficit, and the 10-year pushes toward 6%. Then Hunt’s case that the 12 trillion-dollar tech companies compound at three times nominal GDP, what $70 billion run rates at OpenAI and Anthropic say about agents, and whether AI makes drug development cheaper for everyone or just for Lilly....

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → Berkshire Gave Up the Quiet Exit Berkshire’s real commitment to Lennar this month was the paperwork, more than the two hundred and twelve million dollars. On Thursday, September seventeenth, Berkshire crossed ten percent ownership of Lennar ¹ . Past that line the rules of owning a stock change. Every share it buys or sells now goes public w...

Hunt, Mike, and Jason walk the Cash Flow Memo with WTI near $101, a $20 discount to next year’s strip, and the 10-year above 5%. Then the data against AI job doomers, and what it would cost Meta to serve its new Muse agent at scale. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Hunt holds oil flat on Exhibit C: Iranian supply has only slipped from 3.0 to 2.1 million bbl/day under embargo because domestic use...

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → Read the Vesting Schedule Amazon signed two documents with Generac on Tuesday. Everybody covered the smaller one. The supply agreement is the small document: backup generators for Amazon data centers, initial deliveries expected to total two point four billion dollars across twenty-twenty-seven and twenty-twenty-eight. The warrant is the la...

Hunt, Mike, and Jason walk the Cash Flow Memo with oil back near $100, the 10-year above 5%, and the AI labs talking about extinction. Plus notes from the All-In Summit and a Vertex update. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Hunt holds oil around $90 with the 12-month strip ~$20 lower despite WTI briefly topping $100; the real squeeze is diesel (~$200/bbl globally) from Ukrainian strikes on Russian...

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Biggest AI Builder Just Chose Dilution Four weeks ago the argument in this column was that the AI buildout had turned into a credit trade — that what prices the complex from here is whether somebody else’s lender says yes. Oracle answered the question this week, in a filing, and the answer was not a lender. It was the shareholders. Star...

Hunt, Mike, and Jason walk the Cash Flow Memo across an escalating Iran-US oil standoff, the widening federal deficit, a wave of new AI agent products from xAI and Meta, and a Montana law reshaping the economics of cancer immunotherapy. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Iran-US tensions escalated in the Persian Gulf (US Navy sinking Iranian shadow fleet tankers after a failed missile strike on the...

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → ONEOK Bought a Ratio ONEOK announced a four-point-four-billion-dollar acquisition last weekend and raised nine billion dollars to pay for it. The gap between those two numbers is the story, and it is not what the headlines carried. Four-point-four billion buys Brazos Midstream’s Permian gathering and processing assets. Five billion retires...

Hunt, Mike, and Jason walk the Cash Flow Memo across energy, the federal balance sheet, and healthcare, joined by Montana in San Diego for a deep session on cancer vaccines and how immunotherapy actually works. Nvidia’s quarter and the robotaxi launches close the show. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * The hydrocarbon squeeze has moved from crude to products: with Hormuz closed and Ukrainian drone...

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Bid Was the Business PayPal spent the summer being priced by a buyer rather than by a business, and on Friday it found out which of the two it actually had. Advent and Stripe abandoned an approach that had run to roughly fifty-three billion dollars, a deal that would have ranked among the largest leveraged buyouts ever attempted ¹ . The...

Hunt, Mike, and Jason walk the Cash Flow Memo: oil and gas exhibits, the deficit math nobody wants to do, the Moderna/Merck cancer-vaccine economics, and the SpaceX position Hunt says he’ll probably regret saying out loud. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Hunt left Exhibit C’s supply/demand untouched: 10-12M bbl/d still clears Hormuz on tankers running with GPS off, near-month crude falls from $8...

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → Twelve Times Free Cash Flow Bought One Company and Trapped Another Two of our companies signed deals this week, and the Cash Flow Memo prices them almost identically: about twelve times trailing free cash flow, roughly an eight percent free cash flow yield, page fifteen and page six¹²³⁴. One of them got bought at a premium. The other one ha...

Hunt, Mike, and Jason go more than half healthcare this week: Moderna’s Merck-partnered mRNA cancer vaccine cleared phase 3 in melanoma and the stock doubled. Plus Hormuz at a standstill, $7 trillion of federal spending with only one line left to cut, and xAI putting agents on the shelf. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Hormuz traffic has gone from 15-20 ships a day to effectively zero and Hunt s...

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The AI Buildout Just Became a Credit Trade Broadcom put up the best AI guidance in the semiconductor industry and lost five percent for it. Nobody who read the release thinks that was a demand problem. The buildout has passed the point where equity markets fund it, and what prices the chip names from here is whether somebody else’s lender s...

Hunt, Jason, and Mike walk the Cash Flow Memo through $90 oil that will not change oil-patch spending, a compute market sold out through 2028, and a healthcare desk that still found time for Eliquis. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Hunt’s $70-$90 oil range still holds at the top - crude is ~$90 and he does not see it running much higher - but Iran’s infeasible demands (US bases out, Hormuz cargo...

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → A note from the desk: this week’s update is landing a few days late. We hit a technical problem over the weekend that took our production pipeline down. Everything below is as of Friday’s close, August 7. We’re back on the normal cadence next week. ## The Public Market Just Quoted a Price on a Drug Pipeline. The Price Was Zero. Eighteen bil...

Hunt, Mike, and Jason walk the Cash Flow Memo through an oil tape driven by Hormuz headlines, a power grid that has started saying no to data centers, and the valuation question underneath the Tesla-SpaceX merger. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Oil is trading the Hormuz headline, not the fundamentals: Saudi Aramco earned $33B in Q2 because price more than offset shipped volume, and its CEO says...