Suburb Data with Damien & Jeremy

In episode 56, Damien and Jeremy answer listener questions on some of the most common issues facing property investors right now, including affordability, capital growth, market cycle timing, yield trends and when it may or may not make sense to sell. They cover how to think about cheap versus expensive markets, explain why a low market cycle timing score does not automatically mean sell, and show...

Episode 22 examines the claim that investors need to adapt their strategy every time the market changes. We show that while market conditions can affect timing and decision making, they do not change the core principles of successful investing. Using long term capital city data, the episode highlights that there is almost always a market booming somewhere in Australia, even when others are flat or...

In Episode 55, Damien and Jeremy unpack what the latest Suburb Data figures are showing across the Australian property market. They walk through the capital cities for both houses and units, covering changes in values, DSR scores, market cycle timing, stock on market, days on market, vacancy rates and rental growth. The discussion highlights the strongest markets, the ones beginning to improve, an...

Episode 21 challenges the idea that bigger land automatically means better capital growth. We explain why block size on its own can be misleading and show that what really matters is the land to asset ratio, which measures how much of a property’s value sits in the land rather than the building. Using clear examples, the episode shows why older properties and select boutique stock can outperform n...

Episode 20 tests the advice to buy at the bottom of the market. We show how hard it is to identify a true bottom in real time, and why flat periods can drag on for years or produce false signs of recovery. Using historical data across hundreds of markets, we compare buying after a decline with buying into a boom and find that the stronger results usually come from markets already showing clear upw...

Episode 19 challenges the idea that desirable areas are always in high demand. We explain the difference between appeal and true market demand, showing that prices rise when buyers have both the desire and the capacity to compete, not simply because an area has attractive features. Using historical examples and broader market data, we show that affluent, highly desirable locations can underperform...

Episode 18 challenges the advice to buy under the suburb median. We explain why the median has nothing to do with what an individual property is worth, and why real value is determined by recent sales of similar properties nearby, not a suburb wide price marker. The episode shows how this strategy can mislead investors, cause them to ignore half the market, and waste valuable time in rising condit...

Episode 17 tests the claim that public housing hurts capital growth. Using census data from 2006 to 2021, we compare suburbs with low and high levels of public housing and find no meaningful difference in long term price growth. We also examine changes in public housing over time and show they do not provide a reliable signal for future growth either. The episode goes further by looking at yield a...

In this episode, we break down the 2026 Federal Budget and what the proposed tax changes could mean for property investors, renters and first home buyers. We examine the planned changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, explain how grandfathering works, and discuss the likely flow on effects for borrowing power, serviceability and long term portfolio growth. Our conversation also explores...

Episode 16 tests the claim that cheap property markets are the riskiest in tough times. Looking at five national market corrections across the past 45 years, we group markets by price and compare how they performed when growth stalled or turned negative. In every case, the cheaper markets held up better than the expensive ones, directly contradicting the common advice that lower priced areas fall...

In this episode we challenge the idea that a 2 or 3 percent vacancy rate is the sign of a balanced rental market. Using national data, city level comparisons and long term vacancy and rent growth trends, we show that today’s market is far tighter, with balance looking closer to 1 percent in many cases. The episode also explains how vacancy is measured, why the relationship between vacancy and rent...

Episode 14 examines the belief that infrastructure projects drive capital growth. Using long run ABS data, project level case studies and a review of more than 120 individual projects, we show that most infrastructure has little to no reliable link to stronger price growth. In many cases, the relationship appears to run the other way, with rising property values helping fund new projects rather th...

Episode 13 asks whether time-in the market beats timing the market. We test a simple trading simulator that times entry by buying when Market Cycle Timing is high and times exit by selling when MCT normalises. The simulator includes all entry and exit costs. Trading is then compared with holding long-term. Across SA3 regions and multiple eras, trading beat holding long-term, with a success rate be...

Episode 12 argues for a short term, data led focus. Most outperformance happens in bursts, long term leaders tend to revert, and rotating into the next tight market can beat buy and hold even after costs. We show how modern forecasting and timely market metrics lift your hit rate, while long range bets are unreliable and exposed to unknown future technologies. The takeaway is clear. Capture short...

Episode 11 shows why long term outperformance is a myth. National multi-decade historical data shows extremes fade. Markets converge to the long-term average. The growth leaders of the past become the laggards of the future as buyer focus shifts to better value. The takeaway is to avoid betting on a permanent edge. But if you must, favour houses over units, old over new, and avoid supply-heavy vac...

Episode 10 dismantles the idea that strong past growth predicts strong future growth. We show why backtesting single properties is misleading, explain that features set price rather than growth, and reveal a clear inverse relationship in the data when you group suburbs by their last 10 to 20 years of performance. Markets that have run hard tend to slow as higher prices dampen demand, while laggard...

Episode 9 debunks the idea of the knockout bid at auction. We show why large, dramatic jumps do not scare bidders who still have room in their budget and why the highest budget wins, not the boldest call. Clear examples reveal how a knockout bid can backfire by pushing the price above the minimum needed, costing the buyer thousands. We set a simple test for anyone claiming the tactic works: prove...

Episode 8 busts the myth that you make money when you buy. We show why purchase is a cost-heavy entry point with stamp duty, conveyancing, inspections, time and often repairs, so returns come from holding through capital growth and rent. We explain why buying under market value usually signals a weak market where supply beats demand, why the price you pay becomes the new market value in the valuer...

Episode 7 shows there is no such thing as depreciation “benefits”. Depreciation is a detriment, not a benefit. We explain what depreciation really is, the unavoidable loss in a building’s value, and why tax deductions do not make you richer. Clear examples show how a $10,000 claim might cut your tax by $4,000 yet still leave you $6,000 worse off, and how Division 43 claims reduce your cost base an...

Episode 6 challenges the idea that higher wages drive higher capital growth. Using ABS census data across all suburbs since 1991, we group markets by household income and by income growth over 5 to 25 years and find no consistent link to future price gains. The flaw is practical as well as statistical. Buyers can come from anywhere, census incomes are lagged and noisy, and borrowing capacity depen...

Episode 5 tackles the myth that buying closer to the CBD delivers superior capital growth. We unpack why past reports misled investors through tiny samples, uneven suburb spacing and single time frames, then replicate their methods across later periods to show the result often reverses. We widen the analysis to thousands of suburbs across major cities and find no enduring link between distance to...

Episode 4 busts the idea that buying near amenities delivers superior results. We compare suburbs with train stations, top schools, beaches, major shopping centres and airports over decades, and also rank suburbs by walk score, finding that price premiums do not translate into better capital growth or yield over time. Where a new amenity appears, any uplift is brief as prices adjust. We also test...

Episode 3 tests the new versus old theory and shows why depreciation is not a benefit but a cost that only reduces tax while the building falls in value and the land rises. Through clear examples comparing land to asset ratios, cash flow, vacancy, stamp duty and grants, we show the growth gap still favours established homes with more of the price in the land. We confirm this with Queensland sales...

Episode 2 of the Expert Busting Series examines the idea of buying under market value. We explain the difference between negotiating on price and buying below fair value, which is set by recent comparable sales and used by banks and valuers. We also show why the price you pay becomes the new market value, limiting the usefulness of so-called discounts. This episode covers: How advertised discounts...

The Expert Busting Series is Suburb Data’s new program that tests common property advice against hard data. In episode 1, we examine the popular claim that population growth drives capital growth at the suburb level. The data shows the opposite: strong population forecasts usually signal new supply, not rising demand. We break down how population forecasts are created, how planned dwellings feed i...