Sentinel Minutes

Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached... Executive summary Key items this week are: Geopolitical risks: Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached. Israel is being accused of causing mass starvation in Gaza by the WHO and others. Zelen...

Executive summary Taiwan conducted its largest-ever defense drills to prepare for a possible Chinese invasion, while the US has been pushing Japan and Australia to clarify whether they would get involved in a US-China war over Taiwan. Forecasters estimated the probability of a Chinese invasion by 2027 conditional on Japan saying it would not intervene to be 11.5%, and 22% conditional on Trump or t...

The Houthis sank two ships last week, new powerful open source model released. Executive summary The Houthis sank two ships last week, and forecasters estimated the following: Will the Houthis sink at least two ships by August 15? 51% (40% to 60%) Will the US attack the Houthis in the next 30 days? 26.5% (20% to 36%) By the end of August, will the US lower the copper tariff from the promised Augus...

Executive summary A major budget reconciliation bill (the “Big Beautiful Bill”) passed in the US and was signed into law—it's massive and might have impacts for your industry. In response, Musk announced the creation of a new “America Party”. Geopolitical conflicts did not flare up. This week, forecasters produced estimates on four questions: Will there be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that...

Iran, NATO increased spending, video addictions. Executive summary After US airstrikes damaged Iranian nuclear facilities, a ceasefire between Iran and Israel has so far largely held. Iran did not close the Strait of Hormuz. Khamenei and the Islamic Republic remain in power; Khamenei is still in hiding and may not be well. Iranian officials have expressed their intent to resume the country's nucle...

Executive summary The US attacked three nuclear sites in Iran, likely setting back their nuclear program by by years, but the locations and future of Iran's nuclear stockpile remain unknown. A weakened Iran will likely respond meekly, although forecasters now deem it more likely than not that Iran will attack a US base in the region. A nuclear detonation in the Middle East is extremely unlikely. T...

and, the Gentle Singularity. Executive summary Israel attacked Iran's nuclear weapons program and military leadership - Israel and Iran are now at war Anti-ICE and No Kings protests took place in over 2,100 locations in the US and remained largely peaceful Trump steps up deportation plans, backs down from targeting agricultural, hotel and restaurant workers China simultaneously deployed two aircra...

until midnight NYC time. This article was collaboratively written by: Nuño Sempere, Brian Yu, Kati Conen, Alex Lyzhov, Jaeho Lee and 30+ other contributors. Those of us who are in the US are going to sleep, but the document continues being available and freely editable here, and by the time US readers wake up many new developments may have arisen. Last week, the IAEA found Iran in non-compliance f...

Executive summary Trump federalized National Guard troops and ordered them to be deployed to Los Angeles amid anti-deportation protests, against the California governor's wishes. Federal officials are calling the protests an insurrection, setting the stage for the possibility that the Insurrection Act may be invoked, which would allow the military to be used for law enforcement within the US. Fore...

Executive summary On Sunday, Ukraine carried out a drone attack on five Russian military airbases, destroying 41 military planes, including strategic bombers. The attack took 18 months to plan and execute, and some Russian military bloggers are calling it “Russia's Pearl Harbor.” The budget bill passed by the US House contains a provision that would allow the federal government to increase taxes o...

...and the short term-chance of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan this year and the next. Executive summary The fifth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran concluded with no agreement, but the two sides agreed to meet again. US intelligence suggests that Israel may strike Iranian nuclear sites, with or without Trump's blessing, if the talks break down. Forecasters estimate a 22% chance of a US...

Executive summary Moody's downgraded the US credit rating as the US budget deficit grows and US borrowing costs rise. House Republicans are advancing a budget that would increase the deficit further. Meanwhile, China is reducing its holdings of US Treasuries and its dependencies on foreign components in its supply chains as it seeks to de-risk its economy from the US and the West. Google announced...

Executive summary India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire, and despite initial breaches, it now seems to be holding. The Trump administration and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days while talks continue. Markets rejoiced. The Trump administration continues to look into ending due process for immigrants to be deported and is making arrangements to deport undocumented immigrants to many...

Executive summary Shortages of some goods expected in the US starting later this month, because of tariffs. The power outage on the Iberian Peninsula was the worst in Europe since 2003, and Europe may have been close to a more widespread blackout. Trump wants to involve the military in policing within the US. Negotiations between the US and Iran over its nuclear weapons program have stalled. Micro...

Executive summary After a terrorist attack in Kashmir left 26 dead, relations between India and Pakistan sharply deteriorated, culminating in the exchange of fire across the border between the two countries. Forecasters examined the possibility of escalation. The third round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran concluded. On the same day, a blast at Iran's Bandar Abbas port left hundreds injur...

Also Iran nuclear talks, dollar falling, trade disruptions. Executive summary Fallout from Trump's tariffs continues: trade patterns are shifting, Trump is feuding with the Chair of the Federal Reserve, the dollar is falling relative to other currencies, and US imports and exports are plummeting, as are manufacturing indicators in the US. The Trump administration continues to clash with the judici...

Forecaster perspectives Sentinel forecasters in aggregate assess as “83% true” (65% to 100%) the statement that the Trump administration has disobeyed the Supreme Court so far. On the one hand, the Trump administration has done nothing to “facilitate” bringing Abrego García back to the US, and the White House's tweet shown above clearly indicates that it won’t try to; on the other hand, it could y...

Executive summary The Trump administration backtracked from his tariff plan, reducing tariffs from most countries to 10%, but imposing tariffs of 145% on China, which answered with 125% tariffs on US imports and export controls on rare earth metals. The US saw protests against Trump and DOGE, and the US Supreme court ruled that the administration must facilitate the return of an immigrant wrongly...

Executive summary China carried out more aggressive live-fire military exercises around Taiwan. The US relocated missile batteries from the Pacific into the Middle East, raising some concerns that it was leaving the Pacific region vulnerable. Le Pen, the frontrunner for the 2027 French elections, was barred from running in those elections after being found guilty of embezzlement. Global stock mark...

Executive summary Tensions between the US and Iran continued, as Iran replied to Trump's letter demanding that a new nuclear agreement be reached, and the US directed more military assets to positions near Iran. Last week, we estimated that there is a 1 in 3 chance that the US will strike Iran by the end of April, but have since lowered our estimate a bit. There are large-scale demonstrations in T...

Sentinel forecasters jointly estimate that there is a 36% chance (range, 25%-60%) that the US will launch airstrikes against nuclear weapons program facilities in Iran by the end of April, starting most likely between April 10 and April 25 and ending likely before May 1. The US military is bringing approximately six B-2 stealth bombers to a joint US-UK military base on Diego Garcia, an island in t...

Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢 Top items: Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order. Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise. The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50 Forecaster Estimates Forecasters, on aggregate...

Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢 Top items: Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order. Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise. The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50 Forecaster Estimates Forecasters, on aggregate...

Status: Greenish 🟢 Executive summary Forecasters believe there's an 18% chance (range: 4%-50%) that there will be a famine in any part of Gaza by the end of 2025, according to the UN and its Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). A Category 5 rating would result in a positive resolution, with the last IPC update suggesting that all of Gaza was in Category 4. As the US is becoming a...

Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢 Top items: Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order. Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise. The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50 Forecaster Estimates Forecasters, on aggregate...