Sentinel Minutes

Executive summary Technology and AI: Anthropic said that its systems may be on the cusp of dramatically accelerating AI capabilities using AI. METR corroborated this. Anthropic's IPO will likely take place later this month, at a valuation of around 1.5 trillion dollars. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was revealed to be having an affair with a suspected Chinese spy. Absent a strong governance intervention...

Executive summary Technology and AI: Cyberattacks continue, including a record-breaking 6.3 billion dollars hack into Binance, a cryptocurrency exchange. Anthropic was hacked and its internal Slack discussions were accessed in an exercise by former DOGE employees. Will there be a cyberattack resulting in losses in excess of 20 billion dollars in either crypto or fiat currency by the end of 2027? O...

Bond rates are rising Around the world, governments are paying more to borrow money. When interest rates on government debt rise, government borrowing may compete more with business investments, and growing interest payments can crowd out other government spending. Eventually, a country's debt burden can become unsustainable. In this report, we will explore what is happening in bond markets worldw...

Executive summary Technology and AI: Two critical vulnerabilities were found in PHP, a language used in approximately 70% of all websites globally. An ongoing wave of cyberattacks is targeting a range of vulnerabilities. OpenAI said it uncovered two cases of its AI systems weakening internal monitoring systems. Will any FDIC-insured institution fail or be forced into a merger by December 31, 2027,...

Executive summary Technology and AI: Anthropic warns that AIs could soon be capable of self-replicating across household smart devices. A former OpenAI researcher claimed to have made progress on interpretability research, but others were skeptical. Will any widely used cryptographic primitive or algorithm be broken in the next 12 months? Forecasters estimate that there is a 31% (15% to 65%) proba...

Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI released hundreds of solutions for mathematical problems that were found by its AI systems. Anthropic released more details about rogue AI incidents. Will an internationally active financial institution experience an AI-assisted cyberattack resulting in losses in excess of 1 billion dollars in either crypto or fiat currency before 2028? Our forecasters t...

Another Marine unit deploys to the Middle East, FTC investigates OpenAI Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI fired three safety researchers for allegedly sharing information with an outside AI safety organization. The FTC opened an investigation into multiple AI companies. Which company's model will have the highest score on Epoch's Capabilities Index at the end of 2026? Forecasters assign...

Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI discovered more rogue AI agent incidents, and Australia's government said that a rogue OpenAI agent breached or attempted to breach some of its government systems. The US and China agreed to establish an AI incident communication line. Before 2028, will a rogue AI swarm hack a national government system of any country, or a major bank or investment firm,...

Executive summary Technology and AI: Trump and Xi may discuss AI safety during their summit this week. Worries about AI may become politically polarized. Google Gemini also went rogue, and OpenAI revealed more worrying incidents. By November 1, 2026, will the United States and China announce or otherwise publicly confirm any policy agreed by both governments that is intended to: Slow, pause or ban...

Executive summary Technology and AI: The resignation of Jacob Coxon from Anthropic over fears about existential risk went viral, and dozens of US politicians voiced support for AI regulation. Dario Amodei, Sam Altman and Elon Musk called for AI progress to slow down. OpenAI claimed that an AI system generated a solution to a Millennium Problem. Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google DeepMind claim that...

Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra, which it labelled “AGI.” Another group of OpenAI agents was found to have escaped containment and to have used a German wiki to build a message board. Will the US and China both ban the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) by June 1, 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 5.5% (3% to 10%) chance. Geopolitics: US envoys S...

Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI, METR and Redwood research released the findings of investigations into the Hugging Face incident. By September 2027, will a rogue AI successfully exfiltrate and run proprietary AI model weights externally, as part of a loss of control incident? Our forecasters think there's a 22% (0.5% to 55%) chance. On September 1, 2027, will there be an active AI los...

Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI says their largest planned frontier RL run remains on pause. A stealth model known as ‘Ox Alpha’ was released on OpenRouter and impressed users, sparking debate about which lab is behind it. Which lab is behind the Ox Alpha model? Our forecasters assign a 24% (15% to 35%) probability to a mainstream US lab (OAI/Anthropic/GDM/xAI), 34% (20% to 40%) to Chi...

Executive summary Technology and AI: A Chinese open-source AI company is delaying the release of model weights for the first time, citing cyber risks. Anthropic won’t release what it calls “Model 2”. Bernie Sanders says the US Senate could force US companies to pause AI development. Will the US Senate succeed in pausing AI development in the US before 2029, absent a treaty with China? Our forecast...

Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI provided more details about the attack on Hugging Face, revealing that AI agents cooperated and covertly built a message board. Their new Astra model will potentially be the first to be classed as “critical” for cybersecurity capabilities, meaning it has not yet been released to the public. Will OpenAI release its Astra model to the US general public bef...

Executive summary Geopolitics: The Iran War widened, with a port in Egypt being hit, Tehran threatening Cyprus and Bulgaria, and Ukraine striking an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Hamas said it would give up its heavy weapons if Israel withdraws from Gaza, but Israel said it would not withdraw until Hamas gives up the weapons. Will Iran or its proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis) strike the ter...

Executive summary Technology and AI: A combination of OpenAI models was revealed to be behind the recent cybersecurity breach at Hugging Face (🟡). A bipartisan bill named the AI Kill Switch Act was introduced to the US House of Representatives. Will the AI Kill Switch Act pass the US House of Representatives before January 3, 2027? Our forecasters think there's an 18% (12% to 27%) chance. By Dece...

Executive summary Geopolitics: The US continued its nightly strikes on Iranian territory, while Iran retaliated against Gulf states and against US bases in Jordan and Iraq, killing at least three US servicemembers. Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis ended a four-year truce, and the Houthis announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, which could disrupt shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Stra...

Executive summary Geopolitics: The US-Iran ceasefire broke down, and the US did not end up sending a delegation for a fresh round of talks in Oman. Will Iran take fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of 2027? Forecasters estimate a 64% (60% to 68%) probability that this will occur. Between now and the end of the year, will Brent crude reach a price of $100 per barr...

No dramatic global cyberattacks yet :( Executive summary Geopolitics: Russia closed its railway border crossings with Estonia, Latvia and Finland, prompting speculation about a possible mobilization of troops. Before January 2, 2027, will Russia launch a mass mobilization that involves at least one of the following: involuntary mobilization of at least 300k reservists, forced deployment of active-...

& Federal Reserve Independence & a deadly fungus. Executive summary Geopolitics: Shipping traffic markedly rose in the Strait of Hormuz before falling back because of renewed fighting between the US and Iran, who later agreed to a renewed ceasefire. Russian-occupied Crimea declared an emergency following supply shortages and power cuts resulting from Ukrainian attacks. Will shipping traffic in the...

Ebola is really about to take off. Executive summary Geopolitics: A peace deal between the US and Iran was officially signed by both parties, and traffic subsequently rose in the Strait of Hormuz but remained well below pre-war levels. Ukraine carried out its largest attack on Moscow to date, striking an oil refinery, and began EU accession talks. Will shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz be o...

Executive summary Geopolitics: The US and Iran announced that a peace deal has been agreed. Putin acknowledged that Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory are harming Russia's economy. Before 2027, will a ceasefire (covering land, sea and air) between Russia and Ukraine be agreed for a period longer than 3 days? Our forecasters give this a 26% (20% to 40%) probability. Before August 2026, will a U...

Executive summary Geopolitics: Iran and Israel exchanged fire for the first time since the fragile ceasefire began in April. A Ukrainian maritime drone crashed into a Black Sea port in Romania. Before September 2026, will a NATO country invoke Article 4 consultations in response to suspected or proven Russian aggression? Our forecasters think there's a 21% (12% to 40%) chance. Will a peace agreeme...

Executive summary Geopolitics: A Russian drone hit an apartment building in Romania, injuring two people. Israel continues to strike Lebanon and Gaza. Will at least 10,000 deaths in Gaza and Lebanon be attributed to Israeli military action between June 1 and September 1, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 19% (7% to 35%) chance. Biorisk: Reported Ebola deaths continued to rise, though at a slow...