Sentinel Minutes

Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump is seriously considering intervening militarily in Iran to assist anti-government protesters. He says that the US will “own” Greenland and that this can either be done “the easy way” or the “hard way”. And he says that the US will conduct strikes against drug cartels on Mexican soil. Forecasters think there's a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Irania...

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The US struck targets in Venezuela and captured its former President Nicolás Maduro. Trump and others in his orbit also threatened to take over or called for military action in Iran, Mexico, Colombia and Greenland. Anti-government protests continue in Iran. Tech and AI: xAI has come under fire, including from French ministers, after Grok AI reportedly prod...

Executive summary Top items Geopolitics: The US likely covertly struck a facility in Venezuela. China imposed sanctions on American arms manufacturers following the approval of a new US arms package for Taiwan, and China launched live-fire military exercises aiming to encircle Taiwan. Iran is refusing to allow the IAEA to inspect its damaged nuclear sites. 90% (85% to 93%) probability that the US...

Executive summary Top items Geopolitics: The EU opted not to use Russian assets either directly or as collateral to fund Ukraine's defence. The US seized an oil tanker in international waters off the coast of Venezuela and pursued another; one of them was Chinese-owned. The US Congress renewed its military commitments to Ukraine, Taiwan and other allies in Europe and Asia. Tech and AI: METR found...

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The EU indefinitely froze €210 billion of Russian assets. The US and Iran seized oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela and in the Gulf of Oman, respectively. Ukraine wants to join the EU before 2027. Forecasters estimate a 38% (25% to 55%) chance that the US will seize another oil tanker related to Venezuela by the end of January 2026, and a 70% (60% to 8...

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: US-Russia and US-Ukraine talks did not produce an immediate resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The Trump administration wants Europe to take over most of NATO's conventional military responsibilities by 2027. Tech and AI: OpenAI launched its alignment blog, and confirmed that they are researching how to safely develop and deploy models capable of re...

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Donald Trump announced that the airspace above Venezuela has been closed, but the US has not struck Venezuelan territory. Iran's President repeated his warning that the country's capital may need to be relocated because of water shortages. And talks about bringing the Russia-Ukraine conflict to an end continue. Tech and AI: Anthropic released its latest mo...

Executive summary We’re a group of top forecasters who parse millions of news pieces a week to identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you. Here are our top items and forecasts for this week Geopolitics: The US proposes a peace plan favorable to Russia, and Ukraine and the EU push back. US military activities around Venezuela continue. Forecasters bel...

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The Japanese PM said that any Chinese invasion of Taiwan could potentially prompt a Japanese intervention. Pakistan accused India and then Afghan nationals of being behind a terror attack. Iran seized a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis signalled an end to their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. Tech and AI: Anthropic said that it disrupte...

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Iran's President warned that the capital Tehran may need to be evacuated within the next few months if severe water shortages don’t ease. The main rebel group in Sudan agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire, while a UN-backed monitor confirmed that famine is present in the Sudanese town of El Fasher. Tech and AI: Google's Gemini 3 is likely to be widely deploye...

Iran is carrying out more construction in and around a mountainous nuclear site. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the city of el-Fasher in Sudan. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Trump threatened to send troops to Nigeria to combat Islamic rebels. He also ordered the immediate resumption of US nuclear weapons testing, and elsewhere denied that the US is on the verge of attacki...

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The US ordered the world's largest warship to the Caribbean, close to Venezuela. The proposed meeting in Budapest between Trump and Putin was cancelled following disagreements. The US placed sanctions on two Russian oil companies. Tech and AI: A letter advocating a prohibition on the development of superintelligence was signed by figures ranging from Geoff...

90% (86% to 92%) chance that former US National Security Advisor John Bolton will be convicted. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Trump authorized the CIA to carry out covert and lethal operations in Venezuela. Putin and Trump agreed to meet in Budapest for a fresh discussion on how to end the war in Ukraine. Zelensky tried but failed to secure Tomahawk missiles from the US. Economy: Trump...

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect in Gaza. The Trump administration rejected an offer from Maduro that would’ve allowed the US increased access to Venezuela's oil and gold resources and reduced Venezuela's ties to China and Russia. Economy: Trump threatened to impose an extra 100% tariff on imports from China. The S&P 500 fell by 2....

Hamas agreed to some parts of a 20-point US peace plan. Ukraine continues to target Russia's oil refineries. Executive summary Top items Geopolitics: Hamas agreed to some parts of a 20-point US peace plan. Ukraine continues to target Russia's oil refineries. US politics: The Trump administration was blocked three times from sending National Guard troops to Portland. Artificial Intelligence: AI pro...

More drone sightings, EU still considering shooting down Russian jets next time, probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next year slightly rising Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: More drone sightings, EU still considering shooting down Russian jets next time, probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next year slightly rising. US Politics: US government may face a s...

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Russian jets entered Estonia's airspace. An agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia could bring Saudi Arabia under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella. US Politics: A US comedian's show was suspended after the FCC chair exerted pressure on his network and on companies that own local TV stations. The Trump administration plans to announce actions targeting left...

OpenAI and Oracle signed a $300B deal, which would lead to Oracle displacing Microsoft to become OpenAI's largest compute provider; the deal lifted Oracle's stock price. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Multiple Russian drones entered Poland's airspace, some of which were shot down. Forecasters examined the probability of a Russian incursion by air, land or sea that (accidentally or delib...

Executive Summary Economy: Weak August US jobs numbers make a September Fed rate cut look more likely. Bond markets are showing signs of stress, and gold prices continue to rise, reflecting growing risks. Geopolitics: French President Macron said 26 nations are ready to provide postwar security guarantees to Ukraine. China hosted foreign leaders for talks on economic cooperation and held a large m...

43% probability that the Houthis will sink at least one ship between now and the end of September. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Israeli strike on Yemen kills Houthi prime minister and several cabinet members. Biorisk: New World screwworm spreading northward through the Americas. RFK Jr. fired the CDC director, replacing her with a Thiel protégé. Artificial Intelligence: Anthropic iden...

22% chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between now and the end of 2025. Executive summary Top items: Famine: The UN declared a famine in Gaza. Geopolitics: Putin clarifies Russia's stringent terms for a ceasefire. The US is moving Navy ships with 2.2K Marines to waters off the coast of Venezuela. Tech and AI: DeepSeek released its V3.1 model, a more capable open-source model. Bio...

Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK. Tech and AI: Meta's policies exp...

Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK. Tech and AI: Meta's policies exp...

Status: green Executive summary Key items this week are: Economy and trade: Trump's new tariff rates for most of the world took effect on August 7. Trump partially followed through on threats of secondary tariffs on Russia's trading partners if there wasn’t a stop to the Ukraine war by last Friday, by placing an additional 25% tariff on India, which has been buying Russian oil, starting near the e...

Executive summary Key items this week are: Economy and trade: Trump announced new tariffs. US GDP growth is driven by AI capex spending while labor slumps. In response to an unfavorable labor report, Trump fired the commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Geopolitics: UK, France and Canada announced their intention to recognize a Palestinian state. Hunger is widespread in Gaza and might...